The highest line I saw on the Tigers for Game 5 was -142. That was two days ago, a few hours after the Tigers had rallied to blow out the Mariners in Game 4. Since then it’s done nothing but fall, and this morning I saw them as low as -110.
I think many have decided that the Mariners are the better team because they think the Mariners offense is better than Detroit’s. I also think bettors are less afraid of Tarik Skubal after the Mariners eked out Game 2. Bettors are also learning that the Mariners are a surprising 3-0 against the Tigers this season when Skubal was the starter.
So it’s obvious at this point that many bettors think they’re getting the better team, at home, and at plus money. Clearly the way to go.
But I disagree. Mariners bettors are giving the Tigers little or no credit for being battle-tested, a factor that is huge in a winner-take-all game. Unlike the Mariners, who were last seen in the playoffs in 2022 (and getting swept outta there), this Tigers team has recent playoff experience, 14 games worth of it. Last year they earned a wild card spot and went to Houston and won Games 1 and 2 to eliminate the Astros. Then they battled the Clevelanders before losing with Skubal in Game 5 in Cleveland.
This year, another battle against Cleveland but this time the Tigers triumphed in the third and deciding game in Cleveland. Two days ago, facing elimination, the supposedly impotent offense went crazy with 11 hits and 9 runs in their final four at-bats to wipe away a 3-0 deficit and save the season. I didn’t know they had that in them, but they sure did.
So last year the Tigers faced elimination once and they lost (a learning experience). So far this October they’ve faced elimination twice and won going away both times, 6-3 and 9-3. Who is giving them credit for this? They’re not going to be scared tonight.
What about the Mariners? How are they going to react under this pressure? Only three players are still in the lineup that got swept 3-0 by the Astros three years ago - Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and J.P. Crawford. Those three batted a combined .182 in that series (8-44).
Although the Mariners are underdogs tonight (well, barely at this point), l feel like they’re not being thought of as underdogs. Many seem to be looking at this Game 5 thinking that “the wrong team is favored.” I think the oddsmakers had it right to begin with and put out a line that the bettors could hang themselves with.
George Kirby is starting tonight on six days rest. This will be his 11th home start of the season on 5 days rest or more. He pitched 53.1 innings in the first ten starts and his ERA was 4.05.
Tarik Skubal has started 17 times on the road this season but interestingly only 4 of those were on 4 days rest. He pitched 25.2 innings in those four starts and his ERA was 1.75. One of those games was Game 1 in Cleveland. Tonight he will be pitching on 4 days rest.
l risked 12 units on the Tigers +145 to win the series and was happy after Game 1, but felt that maybe the Tigers let the Mariners off the hook after losing the Skubal start in Game 2. Because of that, prior to Game 3 I bet on the Mariners to win the series at -115 and -118 to win 2 units each. That left me with 8 units risked on the Tigers at a beautiful +163. Then I bet on the Mariners -130 in Game 3.
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