Thursday: Cubs @ Pirates

Edwin Jackson has actually been respectable on the road this season posting a 3.22 ERA with opponents hitting just .190 against him. In his last four starts vs. the Pirates Jackson has gone 24 and 2/3 innings allowing 7 earned, good for a 2.55 ERA. On April 3rd of this year, Jackson started at Pittsburgh and went 5 innings allowing just 2 earned runs while walking one batter and striking out five. Below are Jackson's career numbers vs. the Pirates projected lineup for Thursday...

C - McKenry 3-5
1B - Jones 3-12
2B - Walker 2-9
SS - Barmes 3-13
3B - Alvarez 1-8
LF - Marte 0-3
CF - McCutchen 4-13
RF - Tabata 0-6

16 for 69

The Pirates as a team are hitting just .244 vs. right handed pitching this season. This projected lineup is hitting just .232 off of Jackson lifetime. The Cubs bullpen was given the night off as Samardzija threw 7 innings and Villanueva saw his first relief inning of the season after being pushed out of the starting rotation. The Pirates surely have the edge in the bullpen overall but the Cubs bullpen is actually 4th in all of baseball with a 1.78 ERA after given a one day rest.

Jeanmar Gomez has been great for the Pirates since joining the rotation. His 2.89 ERA as a starter is far more than the Pirates expected from him as he fills in until Morton returns from injury. He has walked 14 batters while striking out just 19 in 32 and a third innings which would suggest he is prone to being wild at times and is not overwhelming his opponents with swing-through stuff. The Cubs are hitting right handed pitching at a .254 clip this season. They are far better vs. right handed pitching than they are left handed pitching, which they've seen the first two games of this three game set. Statistically I think we see the best lineup for the Cubs vs right handed pitching.

C - Castillo
1B - Rizzo
2B - Barney
SS - Castro
3B - Valbuena
LF - Sweeney
CF - DeJesus
RF - Schierholtz

While only DeJesus (0-4 2BB) and Sweeney (2-3) have seen Gomez lifetime, this lineup is a combined 210-747 vs. right handed pitching this season. That's good for a .281 clip.

Factor in the notion that it's not easy to sweep a team in the big leagues, I see great value in the Cubs tomorrow.

Chicago Cubs +122 (Jackson) @  Pittsburgh Pirates (Gomez)

1u to win 1.22u

Best of luck to all 

It's a plug your nose kind of play but I agree.

I like your write up. Hope to see more of these in the future

Just trying to get better. Hopefully we see a winner. If not, onto the next one

good writeup and teams disclosure for batting vs.

Nice writeup. I will have to look into this one more but might play the cubs at +$ too

Pitt wins....you can't ever wager money on cubs

under

Nice write up, does it worry you that Cubs have jumped to +130?

As historically bad as the Pirates have been for decades, it's amazing that they are ( 8 - 0 ) last 8 when Mark Wegner is calling the balls and strikes.

Not disagreeing with your reasoning (or your play), just pointing out a trend.

Gotta fade with the Pirates today. GL

Bullpen disparity is one factor that stands out, but as you mentioned, the Cubbies' pen isn't as bad as it's reputation this year. With these pitchers, both teams will be looking to the pen by the 6th inning. Since Pitt has an advantage bullpenwise, if I bet the Cubs it will be 1st five, but I may be outsmarting myself. I'm thinking that if Jackson can get through the first inning without any runs, he can dominate the next four. At any rate, your breakdown is right on the money. Looking at the ERAs of these pitchers, first glance says jump on the Pirates, but when you look deeper, the Cubs are definitely the play here. I think the Cubs can get to Gomez. His low ERA this year doesn't reflect his pitching capability. Probably the biggest suction play is to bet the under.

Good luck,
RT2

GREAT WRITE UP, GL

Game stays close and neither starter will go deep in my opinion. Although the Cubs bullpen has been better recently, it is still advantage Pirates. Pitt or no play is how I see this game.

hard for me to find a definitive advantage or strong angle in this one.you may be onto something though  gl

Just pointing out.... it was about 40* degrees and windy on April 3rd. I wouldn't look too deep into April ERA from outdoor pitchers.

Great writeup and analysis.  I am on the CUBBIES again today.  Let's hope their bats wake up today!  Good luck! 

JACKSON  1-3  7.06 ERA  LAST THREE

GOMEZ 2-0  3.07  LAST THREE  

PITT AT HOME -- CLEAR ADVANTAGE--BUCS!! 

JACKSON  1-3  7.06 ERA  LAST THREE

GOMEZ 2-0  3.07  LAST THREE  

PITT AT HOME -- CLEAR ADVANTAGE--BUCS!! 

JACKSON  1-3  7.06 ERA  LAST THREE

GOMEZ 2-0  3.07  LAST THREE  

PITT AT HOME -- CLEAR ADVANTAGE--BUCS!! 

SORRY -MULTI POSTS-- SHOULD READ  JACKSON 1-3-- 7.06 ERA  LAST 4