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THE CHASE LOUNGE

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Posted: #76
If I bet the Go Nads $3.00 it is 100%. If I bet McShady's son's tuition it never hits.
My top plays are listed earlier in this thread and are doing well. Dropping 2Q and 3Q has definitely increased win %. I seldom go 3-0 or 0-3 so a chase would be nice if the game times align themselves.
 
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Posted: #77
Winning Formula = Always bet thr same amt and pplay more winners than losers 

 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by semperfi19:

OK BOYS...I have a solid play for everyone on Sunday..

I am a Cleveland Browns Homer so I will get that out of the way first. 

I have watched the Browns offense score 20 points three weeks in a row now and I have seen that dink and dunk passing attack with a plus ground game grind out 2 wins in those 3 weeks. This team is young and is still learning how to score in the red zone. Brandon Weedon continues to make costly mistakes that usually turn into field goals or turnovers inside the 20.They have one of the best kickers in the league and they are not afraid to use him.  Romeo and Brady are coming home and Quinn, an Ohio native, will hopefully bring his hot wife with him. I really think the Vegas Boys are giving us a gift here at 5.5, I think this line should be 3 at the most.  I know the Chiefs are  in a letdown spot after that emotional win last week but I truly feel the Browns should not be giving more thatn a field goal to anyone. In their last home game vs. the mighty Charlie Batch they forced 8 turnovers and still only scored 20 points.  My play here is the Romeo and Brady +5.5.  Good Luck.       


I live in kc. Was at the game Sunday, that was the play.  Not to sway you off this gem, but the deaths run deeper than what appears.  Lotta team drama goin on in that locker room.  Plus it was over another teammate who the girl was with.  And Charles was her cousin.  Can't see this bringing a team together.  Things are a mess here.  Funerals and more drama this week.  Tread lite brotha
 
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Posted: #79
Morning Gentlemen. For what it is worth have been working on a system that combines streaks, last game of a roadie, coming home off a roadie trip. Last nite went 3-1 loss was Minny. Still going to see if back to back works as Minny is still banged up. Tonites play Phoenix coming home after a 5 game roadie. Last nite Indiana was in a similar position and won by 10 against Portland. Congrats Chips, Moth, SD and Angle. Playing Nebraska , and under Vanderbilt - Xavier NCAAB. Keep the winners coming.
 
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Posted: #80

Semper-I think financial makes good points...usually you see a team play inspired in most sports after a star gets injured-adrenalin, etc. That only lasts one game until reality sets in...sets-up value in game one for and game two against...they even have an excuse built in....now from what he says, it sounds real screwed up on top of being a crap team to begin with...

I've seen your boys too the last 3 weeks and they're getting better too...

West Coast coming home play-Phoenix-careful Bogey especially in the first half-I saw the Clips and Lakes lose as big favs returning home from a East Coast roadie...Indy didn't cover in the first half and they didn't travel cross country...

I'm on Dallas first half tonight...GL

 
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Posted: #81
Bogey, I forgot about your roadie system, I'll look up the schedules for the left coast teams and see how they did.
 
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Posted: #82
Nice wins SD, Moth and Chips!

Tonight I am doing what I said yesterday. I'm taking Oak and the under. Thurday unders have been money.

Oak +11
Under 49

Home underdogs of 8 points or more have been money, covering 23 of past 24 including a game two weeks ago when these visiting Broncos defeated the Chiefs by a 17-9 count as a 10-point fave. There is no denying the disparity in talent here with Denver flying high and winning seven straight but travelling to Oakland on a short week after locking up the NFC West and with a big game upcoming in Baltimore next week looks like a possible letdown spot. Plus, Oakland should be motivated to beat up on division rival Denver's new superstar stud at QB, Peyton Manning.
 
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Posted: #83
My favorite in NBA tonight is Dall/Phx over 202.
 
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Posted: #84
Be ready for GM2 with Utah next game and GM3 on Denver next game. (Open NBA chases)
 
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Posted: #85
GL guys, angle out.
 
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Posted: #86
Thanks Nads, mjnorman and Moth for keeping your sheets updated.
I know it's a lot of work. Thanks again!

I'll check back in after games tonight, may start a new thread so it won't go an entire week and get over 10 pages again.
 
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Posted: #87
Sorry, forgot to thank McShady for his McTrendz sheet updates!
 
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Posted: #88

Bogey, Phoenix plays home tonight after a long road trip, returned Tuesday from Memphis.

 Phoenix -3.5 vs Dallas.

 
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Posted: #89
SS updated
 
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Posted: #90
Some College Bowl trends for you:

game type == BG and (Average(100 * ( W )@team and season)) - (Average(100 * ( o:W )@o:team and o:season and o:season = season)) < 20 and (Average(100 * ( W )@team and season)) - (Average(100 * ( o:W )@o:team and o:season and o:season = season)) > 9 and (line > 0) and line < 6
SU: 43-34-2 (0.06, 55.8%)
ATS: 50-28-1 (2.77, 64.1%) avg line: 2.7
O/U: 5-6-0 (-1.82, 45.5%) avg total: 54.1

Applies to:

San Diego St.
Kent St.

In simple terms:

teams that have a winning percentage of 10-19.99% better than their opponents are very good Bowl bets if they are a dog of less than +6


___________________________________________________________

Since 2006, the Under is 31-19 62% in bowl games where the total is high (73>total>50) between two > .600 teams.

I used grouping to show how, the better the teams get, the greater this percentage becomes. Click here:

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/query?sdql=game+type%3DBG+and+WP%3E%3D80%2C70%2C60%2C50+and+o%3AWP%3E%3D80%2C70%2C60%2C50+and+73%3Etotal%3E50+and+F&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21

If they're both over 80% teams it is 15-4 Under (78.9%):
FLST / NIL U57
TXAM / OKLA U71

_________________________________________________

Bowl Teams that have failed to cover their last 5 games are 8-1 ATS in bowl games since 2000.
 
game type == BG and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and ppp:ats margin<0 and pppp:ats margin<0 and ppppp:ats margin<0 and season>2000

TEXAS TECH
 
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Posted: #91
Wow. Screwed that all up. Will post on Twitter (if I can shorten them enough)
 
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Posted: #92
W T F? lol, Nads you are amazing with those formulas...
 
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Posted: #93
Not mine. Found those over on the Google Group for SportsDatabase
 
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Posted: #94
Thanks Hoya and Moth. Just checked Lake game thats where Kobe had the flu and put up 40 and the clipp 13 point favs no Anthony Davis for N.O Clipp just didnt take the game seriously. Bottomline you are correct though. Can always tweek it to a certain # as a Fav.
 
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Posted: #95
Knicks 1Q +2.5
Heat 4Q -1.5
 
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Posted: #96
Carmelo just listed as out but still playing both Quarters.
 
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Posted: #97
lot of bad players and coaching staff in NFL, not very often you get a well played football game these days. The penalties and miscues are atrocious, not very professional imho
 
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Posted: #98

well I said earlier a team plays inspired ball the first game without a star and the Knicks beat the Heat on their home floor by without Anthony! And the line kept going higher before tip off...now the Knicks should come down below earth in the next game as I opined...

Also, Dallas is moping up the Jet lag boys in the desert as I type...

 

 
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Posted: #99

Quote Originally Posted by ChipsNVouchers:

Knicks 1Q +2.5 Win by twenty but can't cover a quarter getting points!


Heat 4Q -1.5  Lose by twenty because they suck and have no heart!

 

Other than money pouring down the drain I had a great night! 

Oh well, we will have the Hornets on the road tomorrow getting points in the 1Q...hammer time!

 
 
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Posted: #100

Friday's Bookie Payback!

Cavs 1Q

Spurs 4Q

Thunder 1Q

Hornets 1Q I like them better on the road, as I thought they were tomorrow, but the Griz may look past them and start slow.

 

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