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THE CHASE LOUNGE

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Posted: #51

oops, that's what I get after a couple glasses of wine.

But I think a Laker fade might still be in order...

 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

One more thing-I wanted to post these plays but did not but someone should look up NBA West Coast Teams returning from a East Coast trip ATS on the first game home...I'm pretty sure this should be a great angle-with ML opportunities as well...these teams have jet lag but they always lay extra points especially if they looked bad on the road and the line reflects that "they're home now-they'll come out mad, etc.."

How did that work out for the Clips ve NO Wednesday-13 pts favs and lost...and the Lakers 8 points Favs on Thursday vs Ind and lost and both dogs were missing their best players and these were easy covers...the visitors were focused...

So someone please see if you can que this up but I've been seeing it happen for years...



Hoya, didn't Phil Jackson write a book and mention teams coming home off a long road trip and losing the first game back? Honey-do's, jet lag, unpacking, tired, etc? That sounds like the Lakers, if I am remembering correctly. Of course he also coached the Bulls for quite awhile. I know I have read many write-ups from tout free plays that mention this angle.

I have used this strategy for years but hasn't always worked, but I still hang in there because in the long run I'm pretty sure I'm ahead.
Hopefully we can nail this down with some solid stats.
 
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Posted: #53
Portland GM2 of 2...Glad I called for skipping, getting money back or playing light. I just had that feeling. (Played to get money back anyway)

NBA chase record now 12-3 with all 3 on 2 game chase.

Thanks to Semperfi for bailing me out on that never in doubt with that over with slightly over 5 minutes left!What a scoring machine both teams suddenly became! I left work, thought it was going to lose as N ILL was running the ball and seemingly the clock out and got home and saw overtime tied at 34! Amazing!

Moth, I'm still with you on the 25pt beatdown chase plays! Thanks and please continue to keep us updated!
 
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Posted: #54
NCAAB 67% setline results for Friday.

-7.5 won with Syracuse, now 21-7
+0.5 won with DePaul, now 8-3

Wish I would have parlayed those! (Along with Semper's over and UCLA)!!!

Going to write down tomorrow's football lines and matchups and go to bed. Too many games for NCAA hoops tomorrow. Will only play the set-lines that are hot and nothing else. Of course will also play Moth's NBA. If I have a new NBA chase I will post.

Set-line update for NCAAB (you can find on Nads spreadsheet)

-17.5 3-1
-16.5 8-3
-15.5 6-1
-7.5 21-7
+0.5 8-3
+21.5 3-0


 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by shawty321:


i apologize for the negativity brahs. never seen a turnaround like that........ i learned my lesson

semp


Shawty, you are NOT alone. I had almost written down a loss in my notebook!

Came home and saw massive comeback for the over in regulation after score of 27-13 with around 5 minutes left and N ILL running game looking like they would run out the clock.

Thanks again Semper, I thought we were sunk!

Forgot to also mention, I took Kent St +7.5 on your "gun to the head" side play. Thanks for that extra unit!
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Moth61:

oops, that's what I get after a couple glasses of wine.

But I think a Laker fade might still be in order...



Mavs lost last game vs Bulls 101-78. That's a 23 point loss. Not trying to force a play, just pointing it out since you mentioned the Lakers, but I understand the Lakers are a "public"team, unlike the Mavs.
 
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Posted: #57
Moth, if you don't mind, please post another update in the morning before noon central at the latest to make sure nobody misses your plays. I am thinking you are onto something really good!



 
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Posted: #58
Sorry for the lack of quarter update on Friday. All I played was G2 of Cavs chase at +3, it covered.

Leaning Hornets 1Q, Spurs 4Q and Cavs 1Q. I am out of town and didn't bring spreadsheets so tread lightly.
 
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Posted: #59

Semperfi knows the MAC . Just took a while for N. ILL . to get going in the  first half . Very surprising 4th Qt. given the first three but I am sure that is what Semperfi thought the whole game would be like .

Easy cover just the same . Thanks again Semperfi !

 
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Posted: #60

Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:

NCAAB 67% setline results for Friday.

-7.5 won with Syracuse, now 21-7
+0.5 won with DePaul, now 8-3

Wish I would have parlayed those! (Along with Semper's over and UCLA)!!!


Going to write down tomorrow's football lines and matchups and go to bed. Too many games for NCAA hoops tomorrow. Will only play the set-lines that are hot and nothing else. Of course will also play Moth's NBA. If I have a new NBA chase I will post.

Set-line update for NCAAB (you can find on Nads spreadsheet)

-17.5 3-1
-16.5 8-3
-15.5 6-1
-7.5 21-7
+0.5 8-3
+21.5 3-0


Only hot set line play today in NCAAB looks like KY (-7.5) vs Baylor today. Want to make sure im not overlooking one?

 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:

NCAAB 67% setline results for Friday.

-7.5 won with Syracuse, now 21-7
+0.5 won with DePaul, now 8-3

Wish I would have parlayed those! (Along with Semper's over and UCLA)!!!

Going to write down tomorrow's football lines and matchups and go to bed. Too many games for NCAA hoops tomorrow. Will only play the set-lines that are hot and nothing else. Of course will also play Moth's NBA. If I have a new NBA chase I will post.

Set-line update for NCAAB (you can find on Nads spreadsheet)

-17.5 3-1
-16.5 8-3
-15.5 6-1
-7.5 21-7
+0.5 8-3
+21.5 3-0



Didn't pay attention to which Set #s went cold and became hot, but updated the spreadsheet and am showing the following plays today:

Kentucky -7.5
Florida International +6.5
Riverside +4.5

Remember, the SS can be found on my Covers Space under Bookmarks - NCAAB Setline Tracking
 
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Posted: #62

Angle, here you go, Hope you are right.

Today's plays:

Memphis +5, (San Antonio fade game 3),  4 units  Now +6

Detroit/Dallas OVER 195.5, 2 units, now 195

BOL

 
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Posted: #63
Moth, don't we have OKC fade GM3 with New Orleans?
 
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Posted: #64
Thanks for the update Nads, I see those 2 are hot now.
 
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Posted: #65
+4.5 and +6.5 hot at home!
 
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Posted: #66

Moth, don't we have OKC fade GM3 with New Orleans?

YES, thanks for pointing that out. New Orleans +8, 4 units (or 2 units if you played it as a 2 game chase)

 
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Posted: #67
You had me worried as I had it in my notebook, didn't see it listed and finally looked on your spreadsheet!
 
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Posted: #68

I'll look up the western team schedules today for the following fades, game after returning home from east coast road trip:

Clippers, Lakers, Warriors, Kings,Trail Blazers, Suns and Jazz

 
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Posted: #69

Only second time a fading team has gone to game 3 and we have 2 of 'em today.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArtvW2coXCHsdEpsNzVuQm40N2hwVkxKZlp5Vl9yOVE

 
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Posted: #70
Updated SS
 
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Posted: #71
2 predictions today, New Orleans wins outright (only took the points) and another team is beaten down today by 25+ points.
 
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Posted: #72
New NBA chase GM1 of 3 Chicago -6 (vs Phi).

This is a 1% or 1 unit chase (that's up to you).

So fare only losses on 2 game chases

NBA chase record 12-3.
 
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Posted: #73
Angle out, GL guys!
 
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Posted: #74
Forgot to thank everyone for updating their sheets, Nads, mjnorman and Moth!
 
 
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Posted: #75
I have been doing some research in NCAAB setlines and the final pointspread results and have found a favorable percentage but not enough to qualify it yet. These would be the plays tonite using this system.
2 or more diff between setline and pointspread
Northern Col. -4- PS -2- play Cal Riverside
New Mexico St. -3- PS -6 play New Mexico St.
Ark. St. -2- PS -4- play Ark. St.
 
1- differencial
Fairfield -3- PS -5 play Fairfield
So. Alabama -6- PS -5 play FLA. INT.
William & Mary -4- PS -3 play Old Dominion
 
 
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