Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:
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Week 11 NFL Angles from Insider Angles, a dot com website. I hope this doesn't mess up the page as I will copy and paste...
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Angles went 8-2 in week 10 with both losers as favorites!
Here are the NFL Trends & Angles for Week 11, with all records
being for the last seven seasons since 2005 plus the first 10 weeks of
this season.
Angle #1 - Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (71-47-5, 60.2% ATS since 2005): This
is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that
most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on
decided ATS losing streaks.. It has not made much difference whether or
not the team is now home (31-21-4 ATS) or away (30-26-1 ATS).
Qualifier: Philadelphia +4
(did not play, should have been more clear as I said my chase ended on them in next sentence. I ended up playing Wash as listed on last angle. I apologize if anyone played Philly)....
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Angle4u999 warning! Please note starter Vick out and rookie QB Foles is starting. This can be a problem. This voids my Philly chase. Light play if at all for me.)
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Angle #2 - Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (97-64-2, 60.2% ATS):Playing
this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of
the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as
these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any
part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a
nice sampling. This angle won its only play in Week 10 with the Rams.
Qualifiers: Cleveland +8 and Jacksonville +16.
(Both went to OT and could have won ML)
Angle #3 - Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (92-58-4, 61.3% ATS): This
angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not
like to get embarrassed and often bounce back strong in their next
game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading
to added line value. This angle went a perfect 2-0 in Week 10.
Qualifier: Oakland +5. (This angle lost Thurs nite with Miami.)
(This angle lost again Sunday)
Angle #4 - Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (133-73-5, 64.6% ATS): It
used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades,
but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust
the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game.
Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the
lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also
adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. This
angle went a perfect 2-0 in Week 10. Qualifiers: Arizona +10½, New York
Jets +4 and San Diego +8.Triple winner on same angle, wish I had 3-teamer!
Angle #5 - Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (166-106-5, 61.0% ATS): The
logic behind this angle is the same as the previous angle with two
exceptions, as it does not matter if the team playing its second
straight road game won or lost its previous game, and also it is
restricted to conference game only as now facing a familiar foe lessens
the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack that foe
and what to expect on defense. This angle went a perfect 2-0 in Week 10.
Qualifiers: Arizona +10½, Indianapolis +10 and San Diego +8.(Double angle winners on Ariz and SD)
Angle #6 - Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (82-46-4, 64.1% ATS): NFL
teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice
advantage in recent years, and the added time off often times has
resulted in any injured players the teams may have also having extra
recovery time, which is an added bonus. This angle went 0-2 in Week 10.
Qualifiers: Green Bay -2½ or 3 and Washington -3.
Angle4u999 note: I have adjusted the lines from those on the website for optimum situation based on the time I posted this. On a few I of the dogs I added a half point and on a couple I added 1 point. On the 2 favorites, I lowered GB by half point and Wash by half point depending on your line.
I'm not overly concerned with the exact line, I just like to be sure and get over or under key numbers of 3, 7, 10 and 14. We don't see 21 very often in NFL. Even though I don't like to lose by a half point, I will play that if it covers up or below the key numbers. Buying one point can get expensive especially if getting over or under 3.
As you can see, San Diego and Arizona are DOUBLE angle, which has done well lately. I will put them in a 2 team parlay, which I forgot to do last week to my chagrin. Of course I can't buy points in a parlay so if I end up with SD +7.5 and Ariz +9.5 as they are currently, I will play that. The good thing about dogs is that the public tends to jack the line in our favor the closer it gets to gametime, but not always as most of you know.
I will definitely have them in a teaser of some fashion that maximizes the line to cover the key numbers.(Forgot to mention also 2 units on straight bets, I apologize.) (I posted this between 2 -3 AM or something like that)Also, Oak +5 (at current time) is GM2 of my 3 game chase. As it is an afternoon game I hope the line will get to 6 so I can buy to +7.
One think you need to know about the Raiders. They are much better catching points than giving! In the last few years if you followed that you would be smiling!
1Q (6-1) and 4Q (7-0)
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