Posted:
#1
Today's play is the Tampa Bay Rays at -118
I don't think traps are intentionally set. However, when I first looked at this line, trap immediately came to my mind. After further review, the line is still difficult to comprehend. However, I'm chalking it up to respect for a very good pitcher, Jesus Luzardo and disrespect for an underrated pitcher in Zach Eflin. Otherwise, it can't be explained. Let's take a look at why:
1) The Rays are one of the best teams in baseball at 81-52 and have been all season. Yes, they went through a rough patch in July, but they're clearly out of it and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. What's even more impressive is they've put up 74 runs in those 10 (an avg of 7.4 runs per game).
2) The Marlins are a mediocre team and their 500 record (66-66) proves that. In addition to being average, they're playing some of their worst ball at the moment. They are 3-7 in their last 10 and have only scored 28 runs (an avg of 2.8 runs per game).
3) The Rays are the 7th best team in MLB versus left handed pitching. They sport a .266 AVG, .332 OBP, .433 SLG, and a .769 OPS against left handers. Good #'s.
4) The Marlins are the 14th ranked in MLB versus right handed pitching. They have a .250 AVG, .308 OBP, .392 SLG, and a .700 OPS against right handers. Mediocre #'s.
5) These two teams are headed in different directions. As the Rays chase the O's for the AL East crown and/or a Wildcard Spot, the Marlins only hope is a Wildcard and they'll have to jump Cinci, AZ, SF, and or Chicago to grab that 3rd spot. All 4 of those teams (except maybe the Reds) are significantly outplaying Miami. So, to say Miami might be playing with additional stress as their playoff hopes slip away is not an understatement.
6) It's getaway day, usually not a great time to back a road team. However, the Marlins are also in a get away day as they fly out after the game to face the Washington Nationals tomorrow. The Rays on the other hand have tomorrow off and can take their time getting to Cleveland for Friday's game.
7) Because they don't play tomorrow, the Rays won't be afraid to use their Pen. It's not often, but Eflin has had a few games where his command is really lost. If bad Zach shows up today, I expect Cash to pull the hook quickly. He knows his guys have tomorrow off to rest. The Marlins don't have this luxury and if bad Jesus shows up, Skip may opt to give him a chance to get right. He understands he'll need a fresher Pen.
8) Lineups aren't out yet, but I don't expect Marlins all star, Jorge Soler to play today. He tweaked his hip during an at bat yesterday and was pulled from the game. He's the Marlin's most dangerous bat and when he's not in the lineup, they can be pitched very differently. Yes, Arraez will get on base. But, he won't have Soler protecting him and the Rays won't have to be concerned with the 2 run bomb that these two often combine for. Guys like Chisholm, Bell and Sanchez can be attacked, they don't have the same type of game changing swing that Soler brings. If he does play, he'll be playing sore and I anticipate that he'll lack his typical power.
9) I'm sure some will point out that the Marlins are more familiar with Eflin (due to his time in Philly) than the Rays are with Luzardo. Although - only Berti, Chisholm, and Soler have seen him more than a handful of times. Berti is batting .310 against him in 15 Abs. But, Chisholm is hitting just .133 in 15 ABs and Soler is at .200 after 10 ABs, (well below his avg) and I don't expect him to be in the lineup anyway. While it is true that some of the other guys have decent numbers in limited ABs, that doesn't concern me. Zach is a different pitcher in TB than he was in Philadelphia. His ERA and Whip are are at career lows this season and I credit Kyle Snyder and the Rays pitching staff for that. In other words, the Marlins will be seeing a different Eflin than in the past.
Give me Tampa Bay at -118 for 10 units.
Cheers and BOL to everyone!
Kaufee
4
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