September Dogs - Starting with $4k

Well more like $100 to $500, but easy enough to just hit the ole ALT-F4 whenever you're feeling my unit sizes are too small....

For -1 and +1 runlines I use a calculator which creates the bet out of two separate wagers. If you PM me I can get that calculator for you (it is an excel file). Definitely the way to go...never personally take the given -1 and +1 runline odds as the vast majority of the time you're basically getting charged a convenience fee of sorts. 

Again, PM me if you want that -1 RL calculator; I'm happy to share.

Anyways, for today; I don't have time to post a play, but do consider the Mets -1.5 RL or Cardinals -1 RL. Passing here. Pushed yesterday.

PS. Married now; heading back from Puerto Rico this right now! We'll go hard with dogs again after July....

How was the food in pr?

Thank you. She is lovely. The food was spectacular. I've never been more full after I ate a steak Mofongo!

Here's what I've got for today:

That is way too small of a sample size to really mean anything. Plus, you're always going to find something like that wrong with any bet. 

Teamrankings isn't really a great resource imo. I've checked them out in the past and it doesn't seem like their prediction models actually yield anything.

Thanks. Yea, I'm actually super happy to be winning in July; typically this is my worst month!

Thanks Brutha. That's why I do it; as long as I get my picks in first and don't share too many of my secrets, we can keep doing this for a long time. I consider it a fun hobby and I like helping people.

On a side note:

Thank brutha. I have a base 'raw number' projection model which makes a mathematical prediction on each game. From there I filter and add value based on active systems of mine. 

I key thing really is not overthinking things and not shying away from bets that make you feel uncomfortable. Those are often the best value as everyone else probably feels the same way and goes to the other side which may be a trap. I am always trying to coat-tail the books and linesmakers. Over the years, I've sort of learned how to snuff out the traps and go the other way; or in other words, never going against the grain trying to beat the books.

Money management is also a big thing. Maybe that and discipline are even bigger than your selection process! I could go on about money management, but save it for another time...