Sell the house (Cards/Dodgers)

Quote Originally Posted by TigerPawsSC:



Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP):

Kershaw: 3.07
Wainwright: 3.11

BAA:

Kershaw: .198 (In fairness, Kershaw's benefited from a lower batting average on balls in play, but still)
Wainwright: .247

Kershaw strikes out quite a few more guys, while Wainwright walks fewer guys. Those are a bit of a wash.

Also worth noting that Kershaw's allowed an absurdly low number of home runs per 9 this season. About half of what Wainwright's allowed. Kershaw induces around 14% infield pop ups to compliment the 40% GB rate.

He's got a fastball that's 23 runs above average this season. Wainwright's fastball has been more than 13 runs below average. 36 run different there, that Wainwright doesn't quite make up with his breaking stuff, especially considering Kershaw's got a curveball to match his.

In short, it's two guys who aren't worlds apart. One of them has significantly more upside and has been slightly better according to most Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS), while the other has racked up the stats that only fans take notice of (wins).

Six in one hand, half dozen in the other more than likely. But that's the point of the post. The assertion that there's some massive advantage in the Cards pitching is false.

Given the defense behind Kershaw, the lineup that's superior, and the bullpens, I'd venture to say that the Dodgers would win more than they'd lose if you matched Kershaw and Wainwright 100 times in Dodger Stadium.

Quote Originally Posted by TwistedMath:

Most people are looking at the Dodgers from the wrong angles.  This team does not win with their offense, nor do they win with their starting pitching.  Both are average, but this is the same team that we've seen all year long. 

The biggest strength of the Dodgers is their bullpen.  Most of their games are won in the late innings.  If it's a close game after the 6th the bullpen usually shuts down the opponent and the Dodgers have to beat the other teams pen with their offense.  That's why we've seen so many Dodger walk off wins or games that were won in the 7th or 8th inning.  A lot of people get frustrated that the Dodgers never cover on the run line.  The way they win games is why they never cover that spread.

You have to also take into consideration that the NL west ball parks with the exception of Colorado favor pitchers.  Putting the Dodger bullpen in those ball parks only magnifies how good they really are. 

With that being said I think LA has a great shot to go to the world series.  St Louis is a pitchers park just like Los Angeles is.  If they split their games with Carpenter and Wainwright they can easily win the first round series.  Follow that up with playing Colorado or Philadelphia with the home field edge in round 2 and I think they easily make the world series as Philly and Colorado just don't have the bullpen right now.

I think the Dodgers beat St Louis in 5 games then take out Philly or Colorado in 6.

Quote Originally Posted by TigerPawsSC:

I hope you couldn't find a buyer for the house, for your own sake.

I TRIED to warn you folks. Betting against the team with a better offense, better bullpen, better defense, home field advantage, and pretty much a wash in starting pitching because ESPN told you to is a recipe for disaster.

Want to win betting baseball. Spend about 10 hours at Fangraphs and familiarize yourself with the things that actually impacts baseball games. Don't bet because one pitcher is 16-8 and the other is 11-11. That's nonsense.

I'm not even sure Vegas has truly jumped on board with baseball analysis enough yet. Baseball can be exploited for this reason.