Tampa Bay/St. Louis Under 7.5
The volatility of the weather recently is insane. On opening day, first pitch was around 92 degrees here in St. Louis. Today it will be 50ish. Busch Stadium becomes a really big ballpark when the weather is cool, and with a small breeze throughout the evening, through the open end of the stadium, keeping anything hit to hard to right/right-center, in the ballpark. McGreevy had a great spring, although I don't know how much stock can be put into that. I think for younger guys like himself, it means a bit more than an vet that is just working on new shit. Boyle, was sneaky good last year. His xBA was .218 and a K rate over 25%. Neither line up has baseball killers in them, so 8 seems like a tall order.
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +130
This O's line up is still missing a few pieces in Westburg, and Holliday, but this is more of a fade of Minnesota. Where are the runs going to come from for this team? Buxton is the only bat that makes you think on the mound. The O's atleast have Alonso, Henderson, Rutchman, and Cowser still, so you don't get an inning off. Bradish was excellent down the stretch last year too, so hoping he found something and brought it with him this year. The value is too good here.
Texas Rangers -106
Nola was AWFUL last year. ERA of 6+. Highest H/9 and HR/9 of his career. Things didn't get better in the spring, as he gave up 4 ERs in 6IP. This is his age 33 year season, so I'd imagine the downhill trends continue. The Phils bats are great, but deGrom has owned them over his career. In 22 career starts @ Citizens Bank, he's 9-2 with a 2.55 ERA. Texas' offense isn't on the same level as the Phillies, but Nola isn't on the same level, or even same grading scale, as deGrom. Gusty winds in from left all day too, help keep anything the Phils do get a bat on, stay in the yard.
Boston Red Sox -1.5 +112
Sonny Gray has pitched a lot of games in this park, while with the Reds, and then in the NL Central with STL. He's a swing a miss guy, which is necessary in this ballpark, but the weather will be cool, keeping the ball from jumping if someone where to catch one on the seams. Singer had a rough spring, allowing 10 ER in just 16 IP, and he's a mental midget. If something goes wrong early for him, it's over, he can never get back on track. He only has four pitches, a fastball, sinker and cutter that all are at the same speed, and then a soft slider. Red Sox bats bang him up today.
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