Sat (6/29) "The Good, the Bad, the Ugly"

Good: 

PHI (+105)

Lee has not lost a decision since May 1, and PHI is 8-2 in Lee’s last 10 starts.  The two losses were 1-run losses.   Lee is 2-1 in 5 career starts vs. LAD with a 0.95 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, .185 BAA.  Lee is 6-1 AWAY in 10 starts with a 1.92 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, .200 BAA.

CLE (-120)

Jimenez is 4-1 in his 8 AWAY starts with a 2.86 ERA, .224 BAA.  CLE has won 9 of Jimenez’s last 12 starts.  Axelrod has an 8.59 ERA, 2.45 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Axelrod has not won a decision since May 26.  CWS’ bullpen must be spent after yesterday’s high-scoring doubleheader.

Bad:  Verlander (DET) , Harang (SEA)

TB (+130)

Verlander has an 8.10 ERA, 2.10 WHIP in his last 2 starts, which were vs. other AL East teams (vs. BOS, vs. BAL).  He did not last more than 5.0 IP in either start.  Verlander has not won a decision since June 7.  This is my HOME + DOG + NIGHT feature pick.

CHC (-110)

Aside from Harang’s complete game shutout of HOU, he has posted a 7.30 ERA, 2.19 WHIP in 3 of his last 4 starts.  CHC has won Samardjiza’s last 3 starts.

Ugly:  CIN AWAY, Blanton (LAA)

TEX (-120)

CIN bats are freezing cold on this road trip.  They are batting 4 for 48 with RISP.  I’m fading them until they get back home.

HOU (+130)

LAA is 2-13 in Blanton starts this season, yet they are considerably favored in this game AWAY??  Yes, Lyles got rocked at Wrigley in his last start.  But before that, Lyles had a 1.61 ERA in his last 7 starts.  Lyles is 2-0 vs. LAA with a .233 BAA.  I’m doubling down on this after yesterday’s loss.