San Francisco @ Atlanta discussion

I can't wrap my head around this line.

Another starter not getting respect, vs an aging pitcher who's best years are well behind him.

A few things could be putting the line where it is by the bookmakers.

1. Atlanta is at home. The Braves hitting .253 at home, .242 otr.

2. That 14 game win streak is still fresh in the public's mind. Let's not forget that it was vs the likes of AZ, COL, OAK, PIT and WAS. They've gone 2-3 since, vs the Cubs and Giants. Meanwhile, the Giants have gone 8-3 last 11 including a sweep of the Dodgers. 

3. Atlanta crushes left handed starters. Since May, they are 11-4 vs left handed starters. But they were all scrubs for the most part...Steele, Quintana, Koenig, Irvin, Freeland, Gomber, Bumgarner, Rogers X2, Suarez, Manaea, Ashby, Lauer, Peterson, Hearn.

4. Morton looked great last time out, vs the Cubs. A team who's gone 2-13 since June 4th. In Charlie's prior 4 games he accrued a 7.08 era allowing nearly a .300 BA. And that was vs PHI, COL, AZ and PIT. Not exactly tough lineups. 

More thoughts coming 

Sac

great analysis on Cease yesterday 

almost same applies today

Sox fans get how good healthy Rodon is

the rest of the world does not

love the giants at plus money

with all this work ( yesterday included ) you better be throwing down a little something something on it    

Went 1-1 yesterday for a whole $17 

Morton has been poor vs left handed bats, giving up a .270/.890 slash line, and the Giants are using 5 today.

Rodon in the month of June has been stellar. 3 earned in 23 innings. Allowing a .169/.484 slash line. 7 walks to 27 K's.

To keep things honest, Rodon is a fly ball pitcher(for the most part) when he's not sitting em down via the K. Line drives 29.1%, fly balls 24%, ground balls 36.9%.

The wind is blowing out at 7 to 8 and it's hot n humid in Atlanta. So this is a concern. But it should also be a concern for Morton who's 28.1% LD, 30.3% FB, 37.3% GB.

Rodon will have his best catcher today in Austin Wynns. .000 ERA, .089 BA, and .313 OPS.

Morton will have William Contreras catching him. 4.70 ERA, .267 BA, and a .820 OPS

Morton is too shaky for me to be laying the wood---Braves have some advantage with the bats presumably, the bullpens Id rate about even...certainly the Giants are a worthwhile play in my mind.

morton been bad all year besides last game at cubs his ball was moving all over the place but they kept swinging at would be balls...

I am on the gmen at +120

I agree getting good value with what i think is the better team and pitcher 

Bullpens last 7 days:

Innings: Braves 16, Giants 22.1

K%: Braves 24.7%, Giants 20.9%

BB%: Braves 9.6%, Giants 6.6%

BA Allowed: Braves .302, Giants .198

WHIP: Braves 1.63, Giants .99

@Vegas11787

 I just got +123, let's get it 

Looks like 53% on Atlanta, books getting a pretty even split and that's all they want. Low ass weak line and the public doesn't know what to do really. 

I'm in 

This is one of those auto bets, easy to bet. Basically just bet Rodon plus money any chance you get. 

I'm a Braves fan, and I have a hard time trusting Morton right now.  Yeah, he looked great in his last start in Chicago, but he's been all over the place this season, and he may not get past 5 IP tonight.  The Giants are one of the few teams that hit RHP better than LHP, probably because they stack quite a few left-handed hitters in their lineup.  I think the Braves are favored for a reason, but I just don't see any value here on either side.  I do like the over 9 though.

As with the yesterday discussion, the Over looks like the safer play, but I can't decide between over 4.5 in the 1st 5 innings or over 1.5 SF in the 1st 5, even over 2.5 looks tempting, because Morton's last start seems to be an exception, rather than the norm for him, which has been getting lit up by almost everybody: the Over is 11-2 when Morton starts for Atlanta, so until now he doesn't have 2 consecutive starts where the total goes Under.

Also, I think they can get to Rodon, his numbers are weaker on the road.

TY for the Toronto thread yesterday was the best on Covers BB all year IMO. .  Keep it up !!

Rodon has looked better in his last 2 starts. Morton has looked off all season, I'm thinking the gem last start at Wrigley was a fluke.

Braves are finally facing a decent team after beating up on bottom feeders during their long win streak.

No Riley or dArnaud for the Bravos tonight, who generally hit lefties better.  

I would lean SF if I had to choose

GL everyone

Bol Sac

Better Road Team as a dog, take it.

Yankees recently- win, St.Louis last night, GSW +140 game 6...just a few examples 

If the total was 8.5 I would bet the over great hitting weather 

Sac attack! another great thread 'cause me and Big D are in it and TW will be here as soon as he swallows that load.

Morton has burned me a few times in the past, but on paper pitched really well last outing, although he hit two batters. Did he really pitch well or was there a hurricane blowing in @ Wrigley?

He probably gets shelled tonight,

SF/ATL F5 OV 4½ -110

and

SF TT OV 4½ +125 are the calls for me.

GLTA

Carlos Rodon has a great history with HP ump Pat Hoberg. Morton not so much. Going to add to the 1 ML play of +123

Giants 1st 5 -.5(+140)

Rodon O7.5 K's(+114)

Hopefully greed doesn't bite. Good luck gents 

Nope, it's an alt line

@undermysac

 You've covered this one as thorough as anyone could.

BOL

U9