All right, I made some mistakes on my last post about ML & RL -1.5Here are more examples of a bettor betting
100 games on ML while
taking the fav in all 100 games at an avg of
-150, in which playing the RL -1.5 will benefit at an avg of
+80, or
+50 on ML losses and
+30 on RL -1.5 victories. We are saying that a 1-run ML victory results in a
-200 disadvantage for the RL -1.5 due to the fact that RL -1.5 lost
and ML won.
Example 1: Bettor goes 60-40 on ML, 15 of 60 are 1-run victories.+1350 or (+30 x (60-15) ) on RL -1.5 wins
+2000 or (+50 x 40) on ML losses
-3000 or (-200 x 15) on 1-run ML victories.
Net of +350 for RL -1.5.
It marginally pays to play the RL -1.5 in this scenarioExample 2: Bettor goes 50-50 on ML, 10 of 50 are 1-run victories+1200 or (+30 x (50-10) ) on RL -1.5 wins
+2500 or (+50 x 50) on ML losses
-2000 or (-200 x 10) on 1-run ML victories
Net of +1700 for RL -1.5.
It really pays to play RL -1.5 in this scenario.Example 3: Bettor goes 65-35 on ML, 20 of 65 are 1-run victories+1350 or (+30 x (65-20) ) on RL -1.5 wins
+1750 or (+50 x 35) on ML losses
-4000 or (-200 x 20) on 1-run ML victories
Net of -900 for RL -1.5.
It does not pay to Play RL -1.5 in this scenarioObviously, the number of 1-run ML victories is the driving force behind whether playing the RL -1.5 is profitable or not.
So, the big question becomes, is the true pct. of 1-run victories in MLB ML victories on the favorite closer to 20%, in which playing RL -1.5
is profitable, or closer to 30%, in which playing RL -1.5
is not profitable?
Well,
I just took 10 minutes to brush through the last 12 days in MLB baseball, and I found 108 games in which the fav won. 30 of those 108 games were 1-run victories, for a % of
27.8%. That's 27.8% in which the ML fav is winning by only one run. So, I would say that in the long run, the decision to play ML or RL -1.5 is like splitting hairs. I'm not sure it even makes a difference. At 30%, ML is more profitable. At 20%, RL -1.5 is more profitable. At 25%, it's arguable that neither is more profitable. It's just personal choice.