Posted:
#1
YTD on Reds games:
4-4 +.72
First off the weather is going to be an issue. LINK
I'm no meteorologist but 100% chance of rain sounds bad.
Starters: Charlie Morton (R) vs Bronson Arroyo (R)
Morton-As I have said before, trying to pin regression down to a single game is a total crapshoot. That said, pass me the dice because Charlie Morton's numbers are screaming for a turnaround.
ERA: 2.08 (13IP)
FIP: 5.93
xFIP: 5.38
BABIP: .179
LOB%: 84.3
No pitcher of Morton's modest talent can keep up that kind of ERA. None. It may not be this game but sometime very soon the clock will strike midnight, Charlie's going to turn into a pumpkin and you don't want to be backing the Pirates when it happens.
Arroyo-Using the same metrics Arroyo is due for a correction of his own but here is where the tricky part of "corrections" comes into play. Arroyo has almost 1700 career IP of outperforming his xFIP whereas Morton does not. Arroyo is also facing the Pirates offense, not the Reds offense. That said he isn't going to keep up a 2.08 ERA or K/BB rate of 11. He's due for a rocking or two of his own sometime soon, be careful.
Offense: Monster edge to the Reds here.
It looked like the Pirates Offense was going to click early but they have scored the fewest Runs of any team in the NL so far (small sample size warning). I think they are capable of much better but with so much youth they are going to be streaky. Tabata, McCucthen, Walker and Overbay are all good offensive players. No mit err Doumit is a decent offensive catcher and Garret Jones can walk into one every now and the. From what little I have seen of them so far however Pedro Alvarez might be the worst offensive everyday player in MLB (move over Skip Schumaker ?)
Reds led the NL in Runs last year and lead it again so far this year. Bruce looks like he's coming out of his slump to boot.
Defense: Big edge Reds. The Buccos are dicey at many positions, the Reds have a plus glove everywhere but LF. Depending on how you feel about defensive metrics this could be a best in class vs worst in class matchup.
Bullpens: Thought to be a strength for the Reds coming into the season the pen is off to a rough start, all basically because of too many BB's (4.58 BB/9 2nd worst in the NL). Masset's problems are mental and he had the exact same B.S. last April then was lights out the rest of the way. Champman's issues appear to be physical and as a fan I pray its nothing serious. Cordero has been a high WHIP reliever that gets a lot of saves strictly because he's only been used in Save situations for years now. He is not a dominant closer no matter what the Save stat may say. The front end of the reds pen is actually very solid.
The Pirates pen is almost a carbon copy of the Reds in terms of numbers (less HR's) they too are dealing with a solid guy off to a rough start (Meek) and have a solid but not spectacular closer in Hanrahan. The one thing to be cautious of is the same as with the Pirates starters, the pen's ERA and xFIP do not match and suggest a looming rise in said ERA. They walk a lot of guys and haven't given up a single HR yet, that isn't going to last.
Of course the single greatest thing about the Pirates bullpen is getting to do the "Hey Hanrahan!" thing anytime they roll him out there.
Angles: There is never any value in playing a MLB favorite at -180 or higher imo. Likewise I see no value in laying (-110) and risking the Under 8.5. (two ticking time bomb pitchers, pens, Pirates bad defense, Reds offense, GABP)
So that leaves you with the choice of;
-Pirates ML +170 (need to feel they have a better than 1/3 chance to have +EV)
-Reds RL +120
-Over 8.5 (-110) Risk is will the Piarates offense be able to contribute enough? Also of note, these two teams had 5 games last year with the total set at 8.5 and it only produced 2 Overs, one of which was started by Morton.
The weather is probably going to keep this one from being played tonight but I'll be back later with lineups and a play if they somehow get it in.
As always, BOL in whatever you decide to play!!
4-4 +.72
First off the weather is going to be an issue. LINK
I'm no meteorologist but 100% chance of rain sounds bad.
Starters: Charlie Morton (R) vs Bronson Arroyo (R)
Morton-As I have said before, trying to pin regression down to a single game is a total crapshoot. That said, pass me the dice because Charlie Morton's numbers are screaming for a turnaround.
ERA: 2.08 (13IP)
FIP: 5.93
xFIP: 5.38
BABIP: .179
LOB%: 84.3
No pitcher of Morton's modest talent can keep up that kind of ERA. None. It may not be this game but sometime very soon the clock will strike midnight, Charlie's going to turn into a pumpkin and you don't want to be backing the Pirates when it happens.
Arroyo-Using the same metrics Arroyo is due for a correction of his own but here is where the tricky part of "corrections" comes into play. Arroyo has almost 1700 career IP of outperforming his xFIP whereas Morton does not. Arroyo is also facing the Pirates offense, not the Reds offense. That said he isn't going to keep up a 2.08 ERA or K/BB rate of 11. He's due for a rocking or two of his own sometime soon, be careful.
Offense: Monster edge to the Reds here.
It looked like the Pirates Offense was going to click early but they have scored the fewest Runs of any team in the NL so far (small sample size warning). I think they are capable of much better but with so much youth they are going to be streaky. Tabata, McCucthen, Walker and Overbay are all good offensive players. No mit err Doumit is a decent offensive catcher and Garret Jones can walk into one every now and the. From what little I have seen of them so far however Pedro Alvarez might be the worst offensive everyday player in MLB (move over Skip Schumaker ?)
Reds led the NL in Runs last year and lead it again so far this year. Bruce looks like he's coming out of his slump to boot.
Defense: Big edge Reds. The Buccos are dicey at many positions, the Reds have a plus glove everywhere but LF. Depending on how you feel about defensive metrics this could be a best in class vs worst in class matchup.
Bullpens: Thought to be a strength for the Reds coming into the season the pen is off to a rough start, all basically because of too many BB's (4.58 BB/9 2nd worst in the NL). Masset's problems are mental and he had the exact same B.S. last April then was lights out the rest of the way. Champman's issues appear to be physical and as a fan I pray its nothing serious. Cordero has been a high WHIP reliever that gets a lot of saves strictly because he's only been used in Save situations for years now. He is not a dominant closer no matter what the Save stat may say. The front end of the reds pen is actually very solid.
The Pirates pen is almost a carbon copy of the Reds in terms of numbers (less HR's) they too are dealing with a solid guy off to a rough start (Meek) and have a solid but not spectacular closer in Hanrahan. The one thing to be cautious of is the same as with the Pirates starters, the pen's ERA and xFIP do not match and suggest a looming rise in said ERA. They walk a lot of guys and haven't given up a single HR yet, that isn't going to last.
Of course the single greatest thing about the Pirates bullpen is getting to do the "Hey Hanrahan!" thing anytime they roll him out there.
Angles: There is never any value in playing a MLB favorite at -180 or higher imo. Likewise I see no value in laying (-110) and risking the Under 8.5. (two ticking time bomb pitchers, pens, Pirates bad defense, Reds offense, GABP)
So that leaves you with the choice of;
-Pirates ML +170 (need to feel they have a better than 1/3 chance to have +EV)
-Reds RL +120
-Over 8.5 (-110) Risk is will the Piarates offense be able to contribute enough? Also of note, these two teams had 5 games last year with the total set at 8.5 and it only produced 2 Overs, one of which was started by Morton.
The weather is probably going to keep this one from being played tonight but I'll be back later with lineups and a play if they somehow get it in.
As always, BOL in whatever you decide to play!!
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