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Rangers-Blue Jays, a logical approach

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Posted: #26
As a footnote, if the jays were 75% to win, your Texas layout would be 300 on a 100 bet....less the big spread of course.
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Posted: #27
regarding the pitching information. 

Lackey hadn't given up a postseason homer in 84innings , until today.

No stats are usefull , but stats are meant to fall eventually.

& with the sheer momentum that Toronto has going for them and with a lot more firepower than the CUBS.You can expect any pitcher in this league to get destroyed.

Encarnacion is due for some long balls.....
 
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Posted: #28
PAYOUT is what I meant
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Posted: #29
....gl key, my crystal ball says cole gets beaten up, stroman lights out this afternoon, time will tell
 
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Posted: #30
Hi Key Element, give up on the playoffs, season earned $ 15, and rewind the $ 1 million
 
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Posted: #31
I dont see why this game is even a debate, the Jays have more momentum than any other team not to mention the talent level is vastly superior to Texas.  The only reason that the series isn't over is the Jays have beat themselves with stupid mental errors.  Jays to put up big numbers today, to the BANK
 
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Posted: #32
GO JAYS GO!
 
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Posted: #33
Hey you big dumb dumbs! You do know this is an old post that you guys are commenting on, right? 
 
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Posted: #34
After the trade deadline, I boasted there will be a Blue Jays - Mets World Series. Of course, I didn't think my Rangers would be anywhere close to this. Also, my heart is with the Cubs too.

I am a Rangers fan and even with Hammels pitching, I still have to go with my Blue Jays prediction.  I think you don't go with stats today. I almost want to say No Way the Jays lose.


I will probably stay way from picking the winner and take the OVER on the Rangers run total - I don't see it yet on my site but I've heard it may be 3.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by MBDAN:

Hey you big dumb dumbs! You do know this is an old post that you guys are commenting on, right? 

Yes. You are correct. All I was pointing out was the retarded math of key element. People should make sure they know the math before embarrassing themselves. Key should go back to the 7th grade.
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

As a footnote, if the jays were 75% to win, your Texas layout would be 300 on a 100 bet....less the big spread of course.

TRUE
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Relax_Dude:


TRUE

I shudder to think about people taking investing advice from Key Element. When he's out to dinner with a big group, do you think everyone let's him calculate the tip?

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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

I shudder to think about people taking investing advice from Key Element. When he's out to dinner with a big group, do you think everyone let's him calculate the tip?



The tip calculations come with the check nowadays. 15%, 18%, 20%. I usually pick a number between 18 and 20 percent.

Besides, in big groups they add the gratuity in the check for you. They also provide different checks for individuals if people want.

So in those instances I think KE will be alright.
 
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Posted: #39
Any opinion on the game total?
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by MBDAN:

Hey you big dumb dumbs! You do know this is an old post that you guys are commenting on, right? 
Be patient. We will see if the dumb dumbs can increase their humiliation by commenting after TODAY"s game is over. Right now all they are bashing is a pick that has already WON .
  
Classic 5 Star Laugher.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #41

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Be patient. We will see if the dumb dumbs can increase their humiliation by commenting after TODAY"s game is over. Right now all they are bashing is a pick that has already WON .
  
Classic 5 Star Laugher.

Key Element? Do you mind giving us all another lesson on math and statistical probability? I don't know how many "laughing stars" we would assign to that!

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Posted: #42
Great Write Up!!!!!
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

Key Element? Do you mind giving us all another lesson on math and statistical probability? I don't know how many "laughing stars" we would assign to that!

Aww, poor baby, are you offended because you figured out the dumb dumbs included you?

I do not offer remedial math courses for people unable to understand the math in the first place. BUT:

I will offer you another chance to bash, if you have the gonads to do it up front.

Rangers +152, Hamels (22-11), Stroman (4-1)



Oh, BTW, that is for TODAY'S game. 10-14-2015
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Aww, poor baby, are you offended because you figured out the dumb dumbs included you?

I do not offer remedial math courses for people unable to understand the math in the first place. BUT:

I will offer you another chance to bash, if you have the gonads to do it up front.

Key. I had Texas in game one, and again today. I never said I didn't like the pick. And in regard to your last post, this is much better. You are best off just quoting the lines and making a pick without dragging any of that distracting math into it. By the way, 7th grade was how many years ago???

Rangers +152, Hamels (22-11), Stroman (4-1)



Oh, BTW, that is for TODAY'S game. 10-14-2015
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Posted: #45
LMAO at Key calling people dumb......that's a good one!
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Posted: #46

Parents PLEASE don't let your kids skip school.....or they might do math like KE. The below will forever be a Covers Classic.

FFT. Consider the money angle. At +167 the Rangers pay 167 cents per dollar of risk. At -174 (best available) the Blue Jays pay 57.5 cents per dollar. 167/57.5 = 2.9. Are the Jays really 3 times more likely to win this game than the Rangers? A 75% probability in a playoff game versus Cole Hamels and the Rangers? The real choice here is between investing and gambling. Even if I thought the Jays had a 75% chance of winning or called it a "lock" the wager itself is foolish.

Hey Key....can u explain all this agan?

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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

Parents PLEASE don't let your kids skip school.....or they might do math like KE. The below will forever be a Covers Classic.

FFT. Consider the money angle. At +167 the Rangers pay 167 cents per dollar of risk. At -174 (best available) the Blue Jays pay 57.5 cents per dollar. 167/57.5 = 2.9. Are the Jays really 3 times more likely to win this game than the Rangers? A 75% probability in a playoff game versus Cole Hamels and the Rangers? The real choice here is between investing and gambling. Even if I thought the Jays had a 75% chance of winning or called it a "lock" the wager itself is foolish.

Hey Key....can u explain all this agan?

The intelligent and educated don't need a second explanation. The rest of you wouldn't get it anyway.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #48

Quote Originally Posted by gamblingallday:



The tip calculations come with the check nowadays. 15%, 18%, 20%. I usually pick a number between 18 and 20 percent.

Besides, in big groups they add the gratuity in the check for you. They also provide different checks for individuals if people want.

So in those instances I think KE will be alright.

But what about when they don't calculate the tip for him? He might leave a 75% tip!

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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

LMAO at Key calling people dumb......that's a good one!

Talk of dumb? You have that covered. Go out, get that GED. You may just get promoted from fry cook if you do. 

Can you post a play before a game for us? 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
 
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Posted: #50
[Quote: Originally Posted by wmi799]

Talk of dumb? You have that covered. Go out, get that GED. You may just get promoted from fry cook if you do. 

Can you post a play before a game for us? 

[/Quote

I have an MBA with an emphasis in statistics. I do realize that I did get carried away with my mocking of Key Element (I am guilty as charged) but I found his analysis hilarious. I can assure you that his explanation and analysis of probability contained in this post is 100% incorrect. If you were to use his methods in the future, you would end up with a misrepresentation of true odds and would surely lose money in the long run. Thus, I was trying to protect people from actually making wagers based on the information he provided. 

  

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