Basics. With a career record of 121-91 and career era of 3.31 (in two home hitter’s parks) and a quality start record of 21-11 this year, you have to figure your team has a chance to win every time that Cole Hamels takes the ball. There really is not much offensive probability difference when you consider the fact the Jays are dependent on the long ball, but since joining the Rangers Hamels has given up only 4 home runs in 83.2 innings, or 1 per 21 innings, and 8 of his 12 starts have been in hitter’s parks.
FFT. Consider the money angle. At +167 the Rangers pay 167 cents per dollar of risk. At -174 (best available) the Blue Jays pay 57.5 cents per dollar. 167/57.5 = 2.9. Are the Jays really 3 times more likely to win this game than the Rangers? A 75% probability in a playoff game versus Cole Hamels and the Rangers? The real choice here is between investing and gambling. Even if I thought the Jays had a 75% chance of winning or called it a "lock" the wager itself is foolish.
Stroman + HFA + Eastern players’ love affair with the A.L. East is what is driving this line, not true probability. I saw in one guy’s post (not here) that he was thinking Stroman worthy of 3 or more Cy Young awards right now, before the guy has even pitched a complete season. The road to bankruptcy is paved with teams and players that couldn't lose.
BOL
Full update on the season and playoffs when I get around to it.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Rangers +167, Hamels (21-11), Stroman (3-1)
Basics. With a career record of 121-91 and career era of 3.31 (in two home hitter’s parks) and a quality start record of 21-11 this year, you have to figure your team has a chance to win every time that Cole Hamels takes the ball. There really is not much offensive probability difference when you consider the fact the Jays are dependent on the long ball, but since joining the Rangers Hamels has given up only 4 home runs in 83.2 innings, or 1 per 21 innings, and 8 of his 12 starts have been in hitter’s parks.
FFT. Consider the money angle. At +167 the Rangers pay 167 cents per dollar of risk. At -174 (best available) the Blue Jays pay 57.5 cents per dollar. 167/57.5 = 2.9. Are the Jays really 3 times more likely to win this game than the Rangers? A 75% probability in a playoff game versus Cole Hamels and the Rangers? The real choice here is between investing and gambling. Even if I thought the Jays had a 75% chance of winning or called it a "lock" the wager itself is foolish.
Stroman + HFA + Eastern players’ love affair with the A.L. East is what is driving this line, not true probability. I saw in one guy’s post (not here) that he was thinking Stroman worthy of 3 or more Cy Young awards right now, before the guy has even pitched a complete season. The road to bankruptcy is paved with teams and players that couldn't lose.
BOL
Full update on the season and playoffs when I get around to it.
Basics. With a career record of 121-91 and career era of 3.31 (in two home hitter’s parks) and a quality start record of 21-11 this year, you have to figure your team has a chance to win every time that Cole Hamels takes the ball. There really is not much offensive probability difference when you consider the fact the Jays are dependent on the long ball, but since joining the Rangers Hamels has given up only 4 home runs in 83.2 innings, or 1 per 21 innings, and 8 of his 12 starts have been in hitter’s parks.
FFT. Consider the money angle. At +167 the Rangers pay 167 cents per dollar of risk. At -174 (best available) the Blue Jays pay 57.5 cents per dollar. 167/57.5 = 2.9. Are the Jays really 3 times more likely to win this game than the Rangers? A 75% probability in a playoff game versus Cole Hamels and the Rangers? The real choice here is between investing and gambling. Even if I thought the Jays had a 75% chance of winning or called it a "lock" the wager itself is foolish.
Stroman + HFA + Eastern players’ love affair with the A.L. East is what is driving this line, not true probability. I saw in one guy’s post (not here) that he was thinking Stroman worthy of 3 or more Cy Young awards right now, before the guy has even pitched a complete season. The road to bankruptcy is paved with teams and players that couldn't lose.
BOL
Full update on the season and playoffs when I get around to it.
Excellent, my man!
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Rangers +167, Hamels (21-11), Stroman (3-1)
Basics. With a career record of 121-91 and career era of 3.31 (in two home hitter’s parks) and a quality start record of 21-11 this year, you have to figure your team has a chance to win every time that Cole Hamels takes the ball. There really is not much offensive probability difference when you consider the fact the Jays are dependent on the long ball, but since joining the Rangers Hamels has given up only 4 home runs in 83.2 innings, or 1 per 21 innings, and 8 of his 12 starts have been in hitter’s parks.
FFT. Consider the money angle. At +167 the Rangers pay 167 cents per dollar of risk. At -174 (best available) the Blue Jays pay 57.5 cents per dollar. 167/57.5 = 2.9. Are the Jays really 3 times more likely to win this game than the Rangers? A 75% probability in a playoff game versus Cole Hamels and the Rangers? The real choice here is between investing and gambling. Even if I thought the Jays had a 75% chance of winning or called it a "lock" the wager itself is foolish.
Stroman + HFA + Eastern players’ love affair with the A.L. East is what is driving this line, not true probability. I saw in one guy’s post (not here) that he was thinking Stroman worthy of 3 or more Cy Young awards right now, before the guy has even pitched a complete season. The road to bankruptcy is paved with teams and players that couldn't lose.
BOL
Full update on the season and playoffs when I get around to it.
Already on it, glad to see you have confirmed what I thought. The lines for several heavy favorites are way overpriced. I expect it will continue through the playoffs. I guess square bettors don't understand the uncertainty of outcome in baseball. Long term it can result in only one outcome, their loss and profit for the other side of the bet.
No doubt the mental midgets will come back and heckle Key element if he loses this bet, it's a gambling blog, par for the course.
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Already on it, glad to see you have confirmed what I thought. The lines for several heavy favorites are way overpriced. I expect it will continue through the playoffs. I guess square bettors don't understand the uncertainty of outcome in baseball. Long term it can result in only one outcome, their loss and profit for the other side of the bet.
No doubt the mental midgets will come back and heckle Key element if he loses this bet, it's a gambling blog, par for the course.
Already on it, glad to see you have confirmed what I thought. The lines for several heavy favorites are way overpriced. I expect it will continue through the playoffs. I guess square bettors don't understand the uncertainty of outcome in baseball. Long term it can result in only one outcome, their loss and profit for the other side of the bet.
No doubt the mental midgets will come back and heckle Key element if he loses this bet, it's a gambling blog, par for the course.
If they don't come in before the game, don't sweat it. Anyone can bash anything after the game.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:
Already on it, glad to see you have confirmed what I thought. The lines for several heavy favorites are way overpriced. I expect it will continue through the playoffs. I guess square bettors don't understand the uncertainty of outcome in baseball. Long term it can result in only one outcome, their loss and profit for the other side of the bet.
No doubt the mental midgets will come back and heckle Key element if he loses this bet, it's a gambling blog, par for the course.
If they don't come in before the game, don't sweat it. Anyone can bash anything after the game.
Basics. With a career record of 121-91 and career era of 3.31 (in two home hitter’s parks) and a quality start record of 21-11 this year, you have to figure your team has a chance to win every time that Cole Hamels takes the ball. There really is not much offensive probability difference when you consider the fact the Jays are dependent on the long ball, but since joining the Rangers Hamels has given up only 4 home runs in 83.2 innings, or 1 per 21 innings, and 8 of his 12 starts have been in hitter’s parks.
FFT. Consider the money angle. At +167 the Rangers pay 167 cents per dollar of risk. At -174 (best available) the Blue Jays pay 57.5 cents per dollar. 167/57.5 = 2.9. Are the Jays really 3 times more likely to win this game than the Rangers? A 75% probability in a playoff game versus Cole Hamels and the Rangers? The real choice here is between investing and gambling. Even if I thought the Jays had a 75% chance of winning or called it a "lock" the wager itself is foolish.
Stroman + HFA + Eastern players’ love affair with the A.L. East is what is driving this line, not true probability. I saw in one guy’s post (not here) that he was thinking Stroman worthy of 3 or more Cy Young awards right now, before the guy has even pitched a complete season. The road to bankruptcy is paved with teams and players that couldn't lose.
BOL
Full update on the season and playoffs when I get around to it.
^^^ Same setting, same starters, same line... but same result as last time or Key's ???
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Rangers +167, Hamels (21-11), Stroman (3-1)
Basics. With a career record of 121-91 and career era of 3.31 (in two home hitter’s parks) and a quality start record of 21-11 this year, you have to figure your team has a chance to win every time that Cole Hamels takes the ball. There really is not much offensive probability difference when you consider the fact the Jays are dependent on the long ball, but since joining the Rangers Hamels has given up only 4 home runs in 83.2 innings, or 1 per 21 innings, and 8 of his 12 starts have been in hitter’s parks.
FFT. Consider the money angle. At +167 the Rangers pay 167 cents per dollar of risk. At -174 (best available) the Blue Jays pay 57.5 cents per dollar. 167/57.5 = 2.9. Are the Jays really 3 times more likely to win this game than the Rangers? A 75% probability in a playoff game versus Cole Hamels and the Rangers? The real choice here is between investing and gambling. Even if I thought the Jays had a 75% chance of winning or called it a "lock" the wager itself is foolish.
Stroman + HFA + Eastern players’ love affair with the A.L. East is what is driving this line, not true probability. I saw in one guy’s post (not here) that he was thinking Stroman worthy of 3 or more Cy Young awards right now, before the guy has even pitched a complete season. The road to bankruptcy is paved with teams and players that couldn't lose.
BOL
Full update on the season and playoffs when I get around to it.
^^^ Same setting, same starters, same line... but same result as last time or Key's ???
Jays are dependent on the long ball? Didnt they lead the AL in avg and OBP? Dont get me wrong, I believe that there is tons of value at taking the Rangers in Game 5 but the Jays do not depend on the long ball.
The Jays see a lot of pitches and go deep into counts.
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Jays are dependent on the long ball? Didnt they lead the AL in avg and OBP? Dont get me wrong, I believe that there is tons of value at taking the Rangers in Game 5 but the Jays do not depend on the long ball.
The Jays see a lot of pitches and go deep into counts.
Can a 1st world country's only team take it on the chin three times at home???
Can collective pride pull stars into a team that will do what it takes?? Joe Maddon's cubs bunted their way past St. Louie in Game #2... Will Tulo bunt... knowing he's not the hitter Colorado's park made him out to be? Just to Win, Bryant, Castro, Soler, Rizzo, Babe Schwarber BUNT !!!
Can't see BATeasesta nor the immaculate Encarnacion bunting.
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Can a 1st world country's only team take it on the chin three times at home???
Can collective pride pull stars into a team that will do what it takes?? Joe Maddon's cubs bunted their way past St. Louie in Game #2... Will Tulo bunt... knowing he's not the hitter Colorado's park made him out to be? Just to Win, Bryant, Castro, Soler, Rizzo, Babe Schwarber BUNT !!!
Can't see BATeasesta nor the immaculate Encarnacion bunting.
Jays have figured out how to hit well against these Texas pitchers. Instead of swinging for everything like Games 1 and 2 they have been more patient at the plate and getting favourable counts. I don't expect 60 year old Hamels to shut down a line up that is full of RHB and on fire right now! Steep price for the Jays but I think its the right call.
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Jays have figured out how to hit well against these Texas pitchers. Instead of swinging for everything like Games 1 and 2 they have been more patient at the plate and getting favourable counts. I don't expect 60 year old Hamels to shut down a line up that is full of RHB and on fire right now! Steep price for the Jays but I think its the right call.
Good to see you back Key. I really like the Jays but not with that much juice. I can't see them losing this one at home. Also with their offense it only takes 1 home run to get them a 2-3 run lead. If I had play this game I would take the Jays RL but I know how you feel against the home team RL.
GL buddy
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Good to see you back Key. I really like the Jays but not with that much juice. I can't see them losing this one at home. Also with their offense it only takes 1 home run to get them a 2-3 run lead. If I had play this game I would take the Jays RL but I know how you feel against the home team RL.
Best division has been the AL West, not the AL East. Anyone who follow s baseball closely sees that. Just scary though how the Rangers cannot get a LHP to keep the jays off balance. Hamels? Errr...
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Best division has been the AL West, not the AL East. Anyone who follow s baseball closely sees that. Just scary though how the Rangers cannot get a LHP to keep the jays off balance. Hamels? Errr...
Basics. With a career record of 121-91 and career era of 3.31 (in two home hitter’s parks) and a quality start record of 21-11 this year, you have to figure your team has a chance to win every time that Cole Hamels takes the ball. There really is not much offensive probability difference when you consider the fact the Jays are dependent on the long ball, but since joining the Rangers Hamels has given up only 4 home runs in 83.2 innings, or 1 per 21 innings, and 8 of his 12 starts have been in hitter’s parks.
FFT. Consider the money angle. At +167 the Rangers pay 167 cents per dollar of risk. At -174 (best available) the Blue Jays pay 57.5 cents per dollar. 167/57.5 = 2.9. Are the Jays really 3 times more likely to win this game than the Rangers? A 75% probability in a playoff game versus Cole Hamels and the Rangers? The real choice here is between investing and gambling. Even if I thought the Jays had a 75% chance of winning or called it a "lock" the wager itself is foolish.
Stroman + HFA + Eastern players’ love affair with the A.L. East is what is driving this line, not true probability. I saw in one guy’s post (not here) that he was thinking Stroman worthy of 3 or more Cy Young awards right now, before the guy has even pitched a complete season. The road to bankruptcy is paved with teams and players that couldn't lose.
BOL
Full update on the season and playoffs when I get around to it.
While I do not disagree with your pick, your math is fatally flawed and it concerns me that no one here was able to explain probability and statistics. A team at -180/+170 is far from a 75% favorite. Statistically, the jays are 62% to win this game. I did the math in my head, knowing automatically without thinking that a -200 favorite is only a 66% win correlation. PLEASE stop spewing odds and math when you are calculating them incorrectly. I like the pick....not the math.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
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[Quote: Originally Posted by KeyElement]
Rangers +167, Hamels (21-11), Stroman (3-1)
Basics. With a career record of 121-91 and career era of 3.31 (in two home hitter’s parks) and a quality start record of 21-11 this year, you have to figure your team has a chance to win every time that Cole Hamels takes the ball. There really is not much offensive probability difference when you consider the fact the Jays are dependent on the long ball, but since joining the Rangers Hamels has given up only 4 home runs in 83.2 innings, or 1 per 21 innings, and 8 of his 12 starts have been in hitter’s parks.
FFT. Consider the money angle. At +167 the Rangers pay 167 cents per dollar of risk. At -174 (best available) the Blue Jays pay 57.5 cents per dollar. 167/57.5 = 2.9. Are the Jays really 3 times more likely to win this game than the Rangers? A 75% probability in a playoff game versus Cole Hamels and the Rangers? The real choice here is between investing and gambling. Even if I thought the Jays had a 75% chance of winning or called it a "lock" the wager itself is foolish.
Stroman + HFA + Eastern players’ love affair with the A.L. East is what is driving this line, not true probability. I saw in one guy’s post (not here) that he was thinking Stroman worthy of 3 or more Cy Young awards right now, before the guy has even pitched a complete season. The road to bankruptcy is paved with teams and players that couldn't lose.
BOL
Full update on the season and playoffs when I get around to it.
While I do not disagree with your pick, your math is fatally flawed and it concerns me that no one here was able to explain probability and statistics. A team at -180/+170 is far from a 75% favorite. Statistically, the jays are 62% to win this game. I did the math in my head, knowing automatically without thinking that a -200 favorite is only a 66% win correlation. PLEASE stop spewing odds and math when you are calculating them incorrectly. I like the pick....not the math.
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