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Picks from The Laboratory/ Data updated

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Posted: #1

Great day yesterday with an 11-1 start to the week(total so far 144-91). Dam Pirates ruined a perfect day. Here are the percentages for today.

 

AMERICAN

SEA/NYY U 70

NYY ML 88.2350

HOU RL 74.4250

DET ML 57.3270

BOS RL 67.568

TB ML 72.4140

MIN RL 63.3490

CHW/MIN O 55.7610

CHW ML 69.0270

KC RL 73.9570

KC/LAA O 57.8560

LAA ML 54.2370

TEX/ OAK O 61.838

OAK ML 71.6980

NATIONAL

PIT RL 61.5380

MIL/PIT O 53.8460

MIL ML 88.8880

MIA RL 66.6670

CIN/MIA O 62.500

CIN ML 76.9230

COL RL 69.0430

COL/CHC U 54.4400

CHC ML 67.8590

NYM RL 69

NYM/STL U 53

STL ML 67.9000

ATL RL above 90

ATL/ARZ O 80

ATL ML 87.5000

WAS RL above 90

WAS/LAD O 80

LAD ML just under 90

 
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Posted: #2

INTERLEAGUE

SD RL 79.4870

SD/BAL O 75.5640

BAL ML 56.2090

SF RL 61.9720

TOR ML 71.4290

CLE/PHI O 88.8890


PEACE!

 
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Posted: #3
like always any questions please feel free to ask



PEACE!
 
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Posted: #4
Your killin it Holden!  GG

Quick question: How is WAS RL over 90 but LAD ML just under 90?
Do these not need to equal 100?
Is there any information you could provide about these numbers? I thought closer to 100 meant more likely to win.
 
MVP
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Posted: #5
WHAT DO YOU PLAY ANYTHING OVER 60 PERCENT?
 
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Posted: #6
11-1, That's insane man... Gl and keep up the hard work
 
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Posted: #7
CORRECTION CORRECTION CORRECTION

LAD ML just under 90 should be WAS ML

CORRECTION CORRECTION CORRECTION

PEACE!
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by bryanoens:

Your killin it Holden!  GG

Quick question: How is WAS RL over 90 but LAD ML just under 90?
Do these not need to equal 100?
Is there any information you could provide about these numbers? I thought closer to 100 meant more likely to win.
that correction should help a little I will be back in a bit with a follow up

PEACE!
 
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Posted: #9
That does help a lot! Thanks. Was getting confused 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by 730champ:

WHAT DO YOU PLAY ANYTHING OVER 60 PERCENT?
Champ there are different parameters for the different leagues. In this case money management is vital. I set a 10,000 unit budget and play 1% bets on picks. I just went live with it last week and I am up close to 2,250 units. That is right off the top of my head. So in this case in order to capitalize on the insane number of plays in baseball (14,580)  I play where ever there is a favorable percentage of the pick hitting.   I am looking at another angle this year but that would be in my "mad scientist" lab. That info is for me only muuaahhahahah

PEACE!
 
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Posted: #11
GL  
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by bryanoens:

Your killin it Holden!  GG

Quick question: How is WAS RL over 90 but LAD ML just under 90?
Do these not need to equal 100?
Is there any information you could provide about these numbers? I thought closer to 100 meant more likely to win.
Ok to follow up with you bryan, let's say that team Knockoff is playing team Mugshots. There may be a 78% RL for Knockoffs and a 69% ML for Mugshots. That means that it the +1.5 would cover but the ML would also hit. Any more questions please feel free to ask.  As far as info  about the numbers I have this for you
1=win 0=loss

P(Team A=win)=P(A=1|day)*P(B=0|day)=A

P(Team B=win)=P(A=0|day)*P(B=1|day)=B

so... that means that

P(Team A wins) = A/(A+B)= A1

P(Team B wins) = B/(A+B)= B1


PEACE!

 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Thanks for sharing the info man, appreciate it. keep it coming, and gL in all your bets

 
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Posted: #14
which is POD?
 
Captain
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Posted: #15
Probability and Statistics ITT.
 
Captain
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Posted: #16
Holden, do you have the underlying mathematics that you crunch for these?

Not looking for exact, though that would be sweet, but more of a generalized way that you dice up your stats to generate these probabilities 

Thanks, and good luck! 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by henrymethbreath:

Holden, do you have the underlying mathematics that you crunch for these?

Not looking for exact, though that would be sweet, but more of a generalized way that you dice up your stats to generate these probabilities 

Thanks, and good luck! 
I do but that is six years worth of work so I won't be sharing that. I will however take a donation ( significant ) and perhaps shoot you an email 

PEACE!
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by henrymethbreath:

Probability and Statistics ITT.
Good old fashioned paper and pencil believe it or not!


PEACE!
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by jacdy02:

11-1, That's insane man... Gl and keep up the hard work
thanks jacdy


PEACE!
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Baby_BA:

GL  
Thanks baby BA


PEACE!
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by HoldenRg:

I do but that is six years worth of work so I won't be sharing that. I will however take a donation ( significant ) and perhaps shoot you an email 

PEACE!

I kind of figured. I don't know that I have "significant" enough money 

Good luck
 
 
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