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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by henrymethbreath:

Thanks for the numbers Holden!

Just finished updating my own sheet. 


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Posted: #27
thanks for all the data henry!! its magical and hopefully profitable!  
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by bryanoens:

thanks for all the data henry!! its magical and hopefully profitable!  

cheers.
 
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Posted: #29
it's good to note, I only put in the opening lines, be sure to check when y'all make your wagers. 
 
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Posted: #30
Holden, what do your numbers mean? its that a percentage or rating scale?
 
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Posted: #31
henrymeth-

regarding the data for "WH opening implied odds". how do you come up with that number?
 
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Posted: #32
William Hill Opening Odds created into a percentage:

https://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-convert-odds

So let's take our example of a moneyline odds offer of -120.

Implied probability = (- (-120) / ((- (-120)) + 100)


So let's use our example of moneyline odds offer of +180

Implied probability = 100 / (180 + 100)

I create the implied probability as a unitless measure of what the bookies odds mean in a win percentage. This is then comparable to Holden's unitless winning percentage. Too independant variables for the same event are then compared. 

 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by mbullitt04:

Holden, what do your numbers mean? its that a percentage or rating scale?
percentage


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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by henrymethbreath:

It's my opinion that the percent difference shows more of a real-world value because, in theory, Holden and the bookies are independently creating a numerical quantity for the same occurrence.

So, in actual difference, our point of reference is 100% = win, 0% - loss. The two percentages are in the grey area in between this reference frame of win-loss.

TOR RL for today for EX:

Billy Hill is woke up and phoned in a -150 RL. This, in raw numbers, means Bill thinks folks will pay -150; he's guessing the public thinks this is a 60% win chance. 

Holden's numbers say this is 86% win percentage.

You can bet based straight on that.

But, 16 points between, say 86 and 60 isn't the same 16 that's between, say 34 and 50. 16 in the latter example is a boatload of value on a dog. 

Hopefully all this is a good start for you, bud.

Cheers. Henry.
Good stuff

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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by jacdy02:

Great work as always holden and thanks Henry for your work.


Thanks bro.

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Posted: #37
you right.


 
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Posted: #38
Man I loved that TEX over


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Posted: #39
 
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Posted: #40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scxomsAIOwk


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Posted: #41
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fM_OJQMTcWg





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Posted: #42
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wKRN5JzYf4



PAZ!!!!!!!!
 
 
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Posted: #43
Thanks for your numbers.
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