Can't wait to kick off the Pirates season with a trip to PNC Park to see my Succos as a big underdog ready to shock baseball fans everywhere with a 1-0 start vs Doc Halladay.
But first, I'm really looking forward to this Wednesday night season opener. I see what I feel is a very strong play for so early in the year, enough to lay a standard mid-late season sized wager.
Cards @ Marlins opening up the new Marlins Park, should be a lot of fun, I'm already caught up in the Marlins of 2012, they should be a very exciting team loaded with personality and enough flaws to make for some nice 'blow-ups' from them throughout the season.
Anyway, here's what I see, short and sweet.
On the mound we have a clear-cut advantage in favor of Josh Johnson, right? Just look at career numbers, Lohse has about a 4.5 ERA and terrible WHIP to go along with it versus a strikeout-heavy ace with a heavy fastball and breaking balls that are 20mph slower and are thrown for strikes. However, last year Lohse had a breakout year while Johnson missed the 2nd half of the serious with a shoulder injury. Skipping ahead to spring training at first glance the numbers are as lopsided as most would expect with Lohse giving up far more runs in 5 fewer innings pitched than Johnson. But looking closer, Lohse got hammered for 5 home runs which greatly inflated his ERA. Aside from those home runs, Lohse was lights out and had an extremely impressive WHIP. Just the opposite is true for Johnson, who had a nearly 1.5 WHIP. Lohse's career-best control from last season seems to have carried over, while Johnson, though in only 25 IP's, has shown significant loss of control. I will still concede a slight edge on the mound to Johnson based on his abilities when in good shape, and the fact that we don't have enough samples to put him down too much, but the edge is far less than anyone would think at first glance.
This is going on way too long so this part stays short. I expect amazing things out of the heart of this Marlins lineup. Hanley will break out, Reyes will still be Reyes, and Giancarlo Stanton is poised to become one of the big names in the sport. But 5 through 8? Turds.
The Cardinals? No Pujols, no problem. A complete order of solid hitters with much better than average plate discipline and a top-notch team OBP. Couple that with even just potential control issues for Johnson, and I expect a significantly better night of hitting form these Cardinals vs. Johnson than most other lineups will be able to achieve following them.
Slight edge on the mound in favor of the Marlins, significant batting edge in favor of the +170 ML Cardinals. You can't count on more than 3 runs when you only have 4 reliable batters.
Cardinals 4
Marlins 2 Final
It's season boys.