We have a pretty similar approach to betting on baseball. Over the last few years, I have tweaked my game a bit, and while most of my action goes on the dogs, I also have learned the right spots to lay the juice. But never too much juice. -140 is my limit although I try to never be TOO strict on making "rules" about that kind of stuff. Sometimes a home team with a so-so pitcher that is -120 has much more value to me than the so-so road team with a big name pitcher. I'll take that home team at -120 anyday.
I would suggest choosing your spots wisely when going with the RL(-1.5 that is, I find ZERO value in taking a team +1.5 although I'm sure some people will argue that strongly). It's great to move the value your way(-140 to +120 as an example), but you have to be sharp with your capping if you continually go the RL route. You must take into account that you're gonna lose close to half the games you bet, and if you are relying too much on the RL, sometimes winning by only 1 catches up to you(usually happens in spurts). If used right(and sparingly), the RL can be your best friend.
As I said earlier, I don't believe in taking +1.5 on the RL. Never, ever. Let's say the Royals are in New York for a 3 game set against the Yankees. You know KC is gonna be in the +250-300 range. If you break down those games and you truly like the Royals, why give up all your value(it may drop to +110 on a +RL) for a backup that your team loses by only 1 run? How often does the underdog lose by 1 run? 12% of the time? 11%? It isn't worth it, IMO, but I sure would like to hear a differing opinion on that. I do my thing pretty good, and I got it to an artform, but there is always room for improvement no matter how much I THINK I know.
Good info flowing here, keep it going!
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Great info, Gamehunter.
We have a pretty similar approach to betting on baseball. Over the last few years, I have tweaked my game a bit, and while most of my action goes on the dogs, I also have learned the right spots to lay the juice. But never too much juice. -140 is my limit although I try to never be TOO strict on making "rules" about that kind of stuff. Sometimes a home team with a so-so pitcher that is -120 has much more value to me than the so-so road team with a big name pitcher. I'll take that home team at -120 anyday.
I would suggest choosing your spots wisely when going with the RL(-1.5 that is, I find ZERO value in taking a team +1.5 although I'm sure some people will argue that strongly). It's great to move the value your way(-140 to +120 as an example), but you have to be sharp with your capping if you continually go the RL route. You must take into account that you're gonna lose close to half the games you bet, and if you are relying too much on the RL, sometimes winning by only 1 catches up to you(usually happens in spurts). If used right(and sparingly), the RL can be your best friend.
As I said earlier, I don't believe in taking +1.5 on the RL. Never, ever. Let's say the Royals are in New York for a 3 game set against the Yankees. You know KC is gonna be in the +250-300 range. If you break down those games and you truly like the Royals, why give up all your value(it may drop to +110 on a +RL) for a backup that your team loses by only 1 run? How often does the underdog lose by 1 run? 12% of the time? 11%? It isn't worth it, IMO, but I sure would like to hear a differing opinion on that. I do my thing pretty good, and I got it to an artform, but there is always room for improvement no matter how much I THINK I know.
GameHunter.......OUTSTANDING write-up! I am fairly new to betting and have read books and articles on how to bet sports. Betting baseball was the last book I read and I have to say your write up was very informative and insightful. You provided an entire new way of looking at games and how they should be wagered on. I will definetly be looking forward to your write-ups during the season! Keep up the great work and good luck to you this season.
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GameHunter.......OUTSTANDING write-up! I am fairly new to betting and have read books and articles on how to bet sports. Betting baseball was the last book I read and I have to say your write up was very informative and insightful. You provided an entire new way of looking at games and how they should be wagered on. I will definetly be looking forward to your write-ups during the season! Keep up the great work and good luck to you this season.
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