Have been lurking around covers and many other forums for years. Never stumbled upon such refreshing approach to betting sports. Finally have decided to show my support by opening an account. Great job! Keep on keeping!
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Quote Originally Posted by ClaudeShannon1:
Have been lurking around covers and many other forums for years. Never stumbled upon such refreshing approach to betting sports. Finally have decided to show my support by opening an account. Great job! Keep on keeping!
There always are games and especially teams, and specifically their managers that annoy the hell out of a person. You know they are a better team, you know they could easily win the game and they still aren't. Well, always remember there are other people who have their money on the other team and they are very happy at the same thing that annoys the losing side supporters. Well, our system is specifically engineered to deal with those situations and that is why it is called a progressive probabilistic model. The other day I was happy to explain our model to one of the non academic co workers who considers herself as a specialist on "fixed" games. For me and "fixes" are uncertainty in data, and since probabilistic model is a statistical framework designed to represent and analyse uncertainty in data - that is perfectly OK with me. And should be with us. Our model allows us to ignore any deviation from a trend and celebrate the volatility. The Padres will come thru for us like the Phillies did today. All we need to maintain is a sound money management discipline.
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There always are games and especially teams, and specifically their managers that annoy the hell out of a person. You know they are a better team, you know they could easily win the game and they still aren't. Well, always remember there are other people who have their money on the other team and they are very happy at the same thing that annoys the losing side supporters. Well, our system is specifically engineered to deal with those situations and that is why it is called a progressive probabilistic model. The other day I was happy to explain our model to one of the non academic co workers who considers herself as a specialist on "fixed" games. For me and "fixes" are uncertainty in data, and since probabilistic model is a statistical framework designed to represent and analyse uncertainty in data - that is perfectly OK with me. And should be with us. Our model allows us to ignore any deviation from a trend and celebrate the volatility. The Padres will come thru for us like the Phillies did today. All we need to maintain is a sound money management discipline.
Well done CB. Phillies pulled their weight for you and Padres wanted to save theirs for later apparently. Forgive me if you have mentioned this already but when you implement the Martingale do you reach a point where you would concede? I was just thinking about if the Phillies didn’t come through where that would leave you. Keep up the great work.
It's interesting that some of the reply to your query as well as confirmation to what you just said - I was busy writing without reading your comment. I have 6 different models that each comes into action according to protocol me and my grad students developed to deal with kind of dilemmas you just presented. Without going into detail too much and just bringing an example of Renaissance almost blowing all of it's funds because of following an algorithm that wasn't coming thru for a prolonged period of time and string of events led one of the principal partners to be forced to leave the company because of sticking with that algorithm the way we call "sticking with my gun". If RenTech didn't implement kind of a stop loss policy directives late Mr Simmons has developed - we wouldn't even have a Medallion fund today. No. I am not sticking with my guns when it comes to financial decisions and we have developed kind of a gear box with 6 speeds that can swiftly and easily switch from one model to another. For an example: if we are already at the position where we are after first doubling cycle - there is no need to risk growing amount of funds in one directional moves. Martingale X3 is our invention. So we are ready to switch to X2 or stay out altogether accepting a loss and being at ease knowing our gains overall are way bigger than that single loss. Now, there are other models as well as dropping the teams we use for our venture as well as reducing the unit sizes temporarily or increasing the bankroll if needed. Didn't have to come to that yet even once - but, we are ready and awaiting an ambush like and practicing in an anticipation of it like a good military unit would with well prepared action protocols for all possible scenarios.
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Quote Originally Posted by raceman06:
Well done CB. Phillies pulled their weight for you and Padres wanted to save theirs for later apparently. Forgive me if you have mentioned this already but when you implement the Martingale do you reach a point where you would concede? I was just thinking about if the Phillies didn’t come through where that would leave you. Keep up the great work.
It's interesting that some of the reply to your query as well as confirmation to what you just said - I was busy writing without reading your comment. I have 6 different models that each comes into action according to protocol me and my grad students developed to deal with kind of dilemmas you just presented. Without going into detail too much and just bringing an example of Renaissance almost blowing all of it's funds because of following an algorithm that wasn't coming thru for a prolonged period of time and string of events led one of the principal partners to be forced to leave the company because of sticking with that algorithm the way we call "sticking with my gun". If RenTech didn't implement kind of a stop loss policy directives late Mr Simmons has developed - we wouldn't even have a Medallion fund today. No. I am not sticking with my guns when it comes to financial decisions and we have developed kind of a gear box with 6 speeds that can swiftly and easily switch from one model to another. For an example: if we are already at the position where we are after first doubling cycle - there is no need to risk growing amount of funds in one directional moves. Martingale X3 is our invention. So we are ready to switch to X2 or stay out altogether accepting a loss and being at ease knowing our gains overall are way bigger than that single loss. Now, there are other models as well as dropping the teams we use for our venture as well as reducing the unit sizes temporarily or increasing the bankroll if needed. Didn't have to come to that yet even once - but, we are ready and awaiting an ambush like and practicing in an anticipation of it like a good military unit would with well prepared action protocols for all possible scenarios.
Because of rapid swift odds change in game 1 between the Yankees and the Blue Jays - I am staying out of that game and will play game 2 if the unstructured data won't change till then.
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Because of rapid swift odds change in game 1 between the Yankees and the Blue Jays - I am staying out of that game and will play game 2 if the unstructured data won't change till then.
This is a link to a previous thread: https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/2025-mlb-103944983/5 Everything you will find in my threads is transparent and well explained with a heaviest emphasis on sound Money Management. If you will follow my easy to understand and implement instructions step by step - even if you are a seasoned sports investor - you will be surprised how mathematics applied to sports betting work. As you will find out in a previous thread - me and - I must admit - very few if any at all followers here - doubled a bankroll of $5K in little more than 2 weeks and also withdrew half the profits as per Money Management directives aimed to create: A. Compounded growth of capital, and B. Create steady source of income that can be withdrawn after a completion of each cycle.Join our journey! It is free of any charge and it is all right here - at Covers.com
Wish you well. If the handicapping is good, it should flourish.
You stated your betting unit is 2% BR, which is fine.
But for me personally, I withdraw NOTHING. My strategy is to continue my roll until I attain my ultimate goals. In this way I am increasing my bet size and subsequent profits from betting more (similar to Kelly).
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Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN:
This is a link to a previous thread: https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/2025-mlb-103944983/5 Everything you will find in my threads is transparent and well explained with a heaviest emphasis on sound Money Management. If you will follow my easy to understand and implement instructions step by step - even if you are a seasoned sports investor - you will be surprised how mathematics applied to sports betting work. As you will find out in a previous thread - me and - I must admit - very few if any at all followers here - doubled a bankroll of $5K in little more than 2 weeks and also withdrew half the profits as per Money Management directives aimed to create: A. Compounded growth of capital, and B. Create steady source of income that can be withdrawn after a completion of each cycle.Join our journey! It is free of any charge and it is all right here - at Covers.com
Wish you well. If the handicapping is good, it should flourish.
You stated your betting unit is 2% BR, which is fine.
But for me personally, I withdraw NOTHING. My strategy is to continue my roll until I attain my ultimate goals. In this way I am increasing my bet size and subsequent profits from betting more (similar to Kelly).
SD Padres ML -116 $870 5 units (this is the case we discussed earlier about not going blindly against the obvious lack of interest in an interleague matchup. We will revaluate the Padres after tonight's game.
The machine is split in its decision on this game although regularly there would be no question regarding the 3rd game of the series where the Padres are at the danger of being swept in front of the home crowd.
Version 1:
Prediction for Tonight's Game (Padres vs. Rays)
The Padres are hosting the Rays at PETCO Park for the series finale. The Rays are aiming for a sweep, with Zack Littell (0-5, 5.28 ERA) starting for Tampa Bay and Randy Vasquez (1-2, 3.97 ERA) pitching for San Diego. The Padres' offense has been struggling, scoring just one run in their last 34 innings, while the Rays have been on a three-game winning streak.
Prediction: Rays 4, Padres 2. The Rays' recent momentum and Littell's ability to limit damage could give them the edge, despite his struggles this season.
Final Precise Prediction:
Tampa Bay Rays 3 - San Diego Padres 2
(about a 55% chance Rays win a low-scoring game)
Betting advice (based on simulation):
Under 7 runs strong play
Lean Rays ML (moneyline win)
Exact scores most common: 3-2, 4-2, 2-1 type games.
Padres vs. Rays Simulation (100 Simuklations)
Based on the Padres' season metrics and current trends:
Home winning percentage (.800)
Recent performance against the Rays (0-2)
Scoring patterns at home (avg. 4.5 runs per game)
Defensive performance at home (avg. 1.6 runs allowed)
Current losing streak (2 games)
Simulation Results:
Padres wins: 61 games
Rays wins: 39 games
Average score: Padres 3.2, Rays 2.1
Most common outcome: Padres 3, Rays 2 (occurred in 17 simulations)
One-run games: 43% of all simulations
Shutouts: 12% of all simulations
Prediction Confidence:
61% chance of a Padres win
Most likely to be a low-scoring, close game
78% chance the Padres score at least 2 runs
I am making ruling here. There are guys you can hit and there guys you can't...
Reduced 5 unit pick on Padres. Also Over! Cause martingale starts here on Padres overs. After such low scoring outcomes the totals line of 8.5 is inviting under money.
Over 8.5 -105 1 unit +150
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SD Padres ML -116 $870 5 units (this is the case we discussed earlier about not going blindly against the obvious lack of interest in an interleague matchup. We will revaluate the Padres after tonight's game.
The machine is split in its decision on this game although regularly there would be no question regarding the 3rd game of the series where the Padres are at the danger of being swept in front of the home crowd.
Version 1:
Prediction for Tonight's Game (Padres vs. Rays)
The Padres are hosting the Rays at PETCO Park for the series finale. The Rays are aiming for a sweep, with Zack Littell (0-5, 5.28 ERA) starting for Tampa Bay and Randy Vasquez (1-2, 3.97 ERA) pitching for San Diego. The Padres' offense has been struggling, scoring just one run in their last 34 innings, while the Rays have been on a three-game winning streak.
Prediction: Rays 4, Padres 2. The Rays' recent momentum and Littell's ability to limit damage could give them the edge, despite his struggles this season.
Final Precise Prediction:
Tampa Bay Rays 3 - San Diego Padres 2
(about a 55% chance Rays win a low-scoring game)
Betting advice (based on simulation):
Under 7 runs strong play
Lean Rays ML (moneyline win)
Exact scores most common: 3-2, 4-2, 2-1 type games.
Padres vs. Rays Simulation (100 Simuklations)
Based on the Padres' season metrics and current trends:
Home winning percentage (.800)
Recent performance against the Rays (0-2)
Scoring patterns at home (avg. 4.5 runs per game)
Defensive performance at home (avg. 1.6 runs allowed)
Current losing streak (2 games)
Simulation Results:
Padres wins: 61 games
Rays wins: 39 games
Average score: Padres 3.2, Rays 2.1
Most common outcome: Padres 3, Rays 2 (occurred in 17 simulations)
One-run games: 43% of all simulations
Shutouts: 12% of all simulations
Prediction Confidence:
61% chance of a Padres win
Most likely to be a low-scoring, close game
78% chance the Padres score at least 2 runs
I am making ruling here. There are guys you can hit and there guys you can't...
Reduced 5 unit pick on Padres. Also Over! Cause martingale starts here on Padres overs. After such low scoring outcomes the totals line of 8.5 is inviting under money.
Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN: This is a link to a previous thread: https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/2025-mlb-103944983/5 Everything you will find in my threads is transparent and well explained with a heaviest emphasis on sound Money Management. If you will follow my easy to understand and implement instructions step by step - even if you are a seasoned sports investor - you will be surprised how mathematics applied to sports betting work. As you will find out in a previous thread - me and - I must admit - very few if any at all followers here - doubled a bankroll of $5K in little more than 2 weeks and also withdrew half the profits as per Money Management directives aimed to create: A. Compounded growth of capital, and B. Create steady source of income that can be withdrawn after a completion of each cycle.Join our journey! It is free of any charge and it is all right here - at Covers.com Wish you well. If the handicapping is good, it should flourish. You stated your betting unit is 2% BR, which is fine. But for me personally, I withdraw NOTHING. My strategy is to continue my roll until I attain my ultimate goals. In this way I am increasing my bet size and subsequent profits from betting more (similar to Kelly).
I understand your 100% pro compounded growth position. However - focusing on creating a system with the largest common dominator - me and my colleagues/students had in mind creating a system enabling person to grow the initial investment (capital) in a compounded fashion and at the same time creating for a person a steady source of periodical income so a person can fully stay focused on what his or her real interests in life are and thus creating a more balanced financially world where the capitalism is back in its purest form. Cause, when people do what they love to do for living - they are way more successful in creating job opportunities for less fortunate, yet allowing a steady capitalistic growth. Smith was right!
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN: This is a link to a previous thread: https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/2025-mlb-103944983/5 Everything you will find in my threads is transparent and well explained with a heaviest emphasis on sound Money Management. If you will follow my easy to understand and implement instructions step by step - even if you are a seasoned sports investor - you will be surprised how mathematics applied to sports betting work. As you will find out in a previous thread - me and - I must admit - very few if any at all followers here - doubled a bankroll of $5K in little more than 2 weeks and also withdrew half the profits as per Money Management directives aimed to create: A. Compounded growth of capital, and B. Create steady source of income that can be withdrawn after a completion of each cycle.Join our journey! It is free of any charge and it is all right here - at Covers.com Wish you well. If the handicapping is good, it should flourish. You stated your betting unit is 2% BR, which is fine. But for me personally, I withdraw NOTHING. My strategy is to continue my roll until I attain my ultimate goals. In this way I am increasing my bet size and subsequent profits from betting more (similar to Kelly).
I understand your 100% pro compounded growth position. However - focusing on creating a system with the largest common dominator - me and my colleagues/students had in mind creating a system enabling person to grow the initial investment (capital) in a compounded fashion and at the same time creating for a person a steady source of periodical income so a person can fully stay focused on what his or her real interests in life are and thus creating a more balanced financially world where the capitalism is back in its purest form. Cause, when people do what they love to do for living - they are way more successful in creating job opportunities for less fortunate, yet allowing a steady capitalistic growth. Smith was right!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN: This is a link to a previous thread: https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/2025-mlb-103944983/5 Everything you will find in my threads is transparent and well explained with a heaviest emphasis on sound Money Management. If you will follow my easy to understand and implement instructions step by step - even if you are a seasoned sports investor - you will be surprised how mathematics applied to sports betting work. As you will find out in a previous thread - me and - I must admit - very few if any at all followers here - doubled a bankroll of $5K in little more than 2 weeks and also withdrew half the profits as per Money Management directives aimed to create: A. Compounded growth of capital, and B. Create steady source of income that can be withdrawn after a completion of each cycle.Join our journey! It is free of any charge and it is all right here - at Covers.com Wish you well. If the handicapping is good, it should flourish. You stated your betting unit is 2% BR, which is fine. But for me personally, I withdraw NOTHING. My strategy is to continue my roll until I attain my ultimate goals. In this way I am increasing my bet size and subsequent profits from betting more (similar to Kelly). I understand your 100% pro compounded growth position. However - focusing on creating a system with the largest common dominator - me and my colleagues/students had in mind creating a system enabling person to grow the initial investment (capital) in a compounded fashion and at the same time creating for a person a steady source of periodical income so a person can fully stay focused on what his or her real interests in life are and thus creating a more balanced financially world where the capitalism is back in its purest form. Cause, when people do what they love to do for living - they are way more successful in creating job opportunities for less fortunate, yet allowing a steady capitalistic growth. Smith was right!
But, then a personal greed took over and like Sam Altman with his open Ai - we too became more interested in increasing our own wealth first without contradicting Adam Smith. So, here we are. Quoting Frank: never underestimate the other guys greed! :)
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Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN: This is a link to a previous thread: https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/2025-mlb-103944983/5 Everything you will find in my threads is transparent and well explained with a heaviest emphasis on sound Money Management. If you will follow my easy to understand and implement instructions step by step - even if you are a seasoned sports investor - you will be surprised how mathematics applied to sports betting work. As you will find out in a previous thread - me and - I must admit - very few if any at all followers here - doubled a bankroll of $5K in little more than 2 weeks and also withdrew half the profits as per Money Management directives aimed to create: A. Compounded growth of capital, and B. Create steady source of income that can be withdrawn after a completion of each cycle.Join our journey! It is free of any charge and it is all right here - at Covers.com Wish you well. If the handicapping is good, it should flourish. You stated your betting unit is 2% BR, which is fine. But for me personally, I withdraw NOTHING. My strategy is to continue my roll until I attain my ultimate goals. In this way I am increasing my bet size and subsequent profits from betting more (similar to Kelly). I understand your 100% pro compounded growth position. However - focusing on creating a system with the largest common dominator - me and my colleagues/students had in mind creating a system enabling person to grow the initial investment (capital) in a compounded fashion and at the same time creating for a person a steady source of periodical income so a person can fully stay focused on what his or her real interests in life are and thus creating a more balanced financially world where the capitalism is back in its purest form. Cause, when people do what they love to do for living - they are way more successful in creating job opportunities for less fortunate, yet allowing a steady capitalistic growth. Smith was right!
But, then a personal greed took over and like Sam Altman with his open Ai - we too became more interested in increasing our own wealth first without contradicting Adam Smith. So, here we are. Quoting Frank: never underestimate the other guys greed! :)
SD Padres ML -116 $870 5 units (this is the case we discussed earlier about not going blindly against the obvious lack of interest in an interleague matchup. We will revaluate the Padres after tonight's game. The machine is split in its decision on this game although regularly there would be no question regarding the 3rd game of the series where the Padres are at the danger of being swept in front of the home crowd. Version 1: Prediction for Tonight's Game (Padres vs. Rays) The Padres are hosting the Rays at PETCO Park for the series finale. The Rays are aiming for a sweep, with Zack Littell (0-5, 5.28 ERA) starting for Tampa Bay and Randy Vasquez (1-2, 3.97 ERA) pitching for San Diego. The Padres' offense has been struggling, scoring just one run in their last 34 innings, while the Rays have been on a three-game winning streak. Prediction: Rays 4, Padres 2. The Rays' recent momentum and Littell's ability to limit damage could give them the edge, despite his struggles this season. Final Precise Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays 3 - San Diego Padres 2 (about a 55% chance Rays win a low-scoring game) Betting advice (based on simulation): Under 7 runs strong play Lean Rays ML (moneyline win)Exact scores most common: 3-2, 4-2, 2-1 type games. Padres vs. Rays Simulation (100 Simuklations) Based on the Padres' season metrics and current trends: Home winning percentage (.800) Recent performance against the Rays (0-2) Scoring patterns at home (avg. 4.5 runs per game) Defensive performance at home (avg. 1.6 runs allowed) Current losing streak (2 games) Simulation Results: Padres wins: 61 games Rays wins: 39 games Average score: Padres 3.2, Rays 2.1 Most common outcome: Padres 3, Rays 2 (occurred in 17 simulations) One-run games: 43% of all simulations Shutouts: 12% of all simulations Prediction Confidence: 61% chance of a Padres win Most likely to be a low-scoring, close game 78% chance the Padres score at least 2 runs I am making ruling here. There are guys you can hit and there guys you can't... Reduced 5 unit pick on Padres. Also Over! Cause martingale starts here on Padres overs. After such low scoring outcomes the totals line of 8.5 is inviting under money. Over 8.5 -105 1 unit +150
The little bastard beat me flat :)
My better half has a field day :). She asked me: so, can you describe how it feels to be an idiot? Write it down now so you can never forget it "genius". :). Yeap. A better half as they say...
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Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN:
SD Padres ML -116 $870 5 units (this is the case we discussed earlier about not going blindly against the obvious lack of interest in an interleague matchup. We will revaluate the Padres after tonight's game. The machine is split in its decision on this game although regularly there would be no question regarding the 3rd game of the series where the Padres are at the danger of being swept in front of the home crowd. Version 1: Prediction for Tonight's Game (Padres vs. Rays) The Padres are hosting the Rays at PETCO Park for the series finale. The Rays are aiming for a sweep, with Zack Littell (0-5, 5.28 ERA) starting for Tampa Bay and Randy Vasquez (1-2, 3.97 ERA) pitching for San Diego. The Padres' offense has been struggling, scoring just one run in their last 34 innings, while the Rays have been on a three-game winning streak. Prediction: Rays 4, Padres 2. The Rays' recent momentum and Littell's ability to limit damage could give them the edge, despite his struggles this season. Final Precise Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays 3 - San Diego Padres 2 (about a 55% chance Rays win a low-scoring game) Betting advice (based on simulation): Under 7 runs strong play Lean Rays ML (moneyline win)Exact scores most common: 3-2, 4-2, 2-1 type games. Padres vs. Rays Simulation (100 Simuklations) Based on the Padres' season metrics and current trends: Home winning percentage (.800) Recent performance against the Rays (0-2) Scoring patterns at home (avg. 4.5 runs per game) Defensive performance at home (avg. 1.6 runs allowed) Current losing streak (2 games) Simulation Results: Padres wins: 61 games Rays wins: 39 games Average score: Padres 3.2, Rays 2.1 Most common outcome: Padres 3, Rays 2 (occurred in 17 simulations) One-run games: 43% of all simulations Shutouts: 12% of all simulations Prediction Confidence: 61% chance of a Padres win Most likely to be a low-scoring, close game 78% chance the Padres score at least 2 runs I am making ruling here. There are guys you can hit and there guys you can't... Reduced 5 unit pick on Padres. Also Over! Cause martingale starts here on Padres overs. After such low scoring outcomes the totals line of 8.5 is inviting under money. Over 8.5 -105 1 unit +150
The little bastard beat me flat :)
My better half has a field day :). She asked me: so, can you describe how it feels to be an idiot? Write it down now so you can never forget it "genius". :). Yeap. A better half as they say...
It is a very strange feeling thou. On one hand I'm mad as hell at the Padres, their manager, players and mostly at myself for going against all I work so hard for developing the machine. On the other hand - I can't help smiling feeling like a proud father who was just beaten by his junior... Go figure. It definitely helps thou knowing I can rely on junior :)
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It is a very strange feeling thou. On one hand I'm mad as hell at the Padres, their manager, players and mostly at myself for going against all I work so hard for developing the machine. On the other hand - I can't help smiling feeling like a proud father who was just beaten by his junior... Go figure. It definitely helps thou knowing I can rely on junior :)
Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN: SD Padres ML -116 $870 5 units (this is the case we discussed earlier about not going blindly against the obvious lack of interest in an interleague matchup. We will revaluate the Padres after tonight's game. The machine is split in its decision on this game although regularly there would be no question regarding the 3rd game of the series where the Padres are at the danger of being swept in front of the home crowd. Version 1: Prediction for Tonight's Game (Padres vs. Rays) The Padres are hosting the Rays at PETCO Park for the series finale. The Rays are aiming for a sweep, with Zack Littell (0-5, 5.28 ERA) starting for Tampa Bay and Randy Vasquez (1-2, 3.97 ERA) pitching for San Diego. The Padres' offense has been struggling, scoring just one run in their last 34 innings, while the Rays have been on a three-game winning streak. Prediction: Rays 4, Padres 2. The Rays' recent momentum and Littell's ability to limit damage could give them the edge, despite his struggles this season. Final Precise Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays 3 - San Diego Padres 2 (about a 55% chance Rays win a low-scoring game) Betting advice (based on simulation): Under 7 runs strong play Lean Rays ML (moneyline win) Exact scores most common: 3-2, 4-2, 2-1 type games. Padres vs. Rays Simulation (100 Simuklations) Based on the Padres' season metrics and current trends: Home winning percentage (.800) Recent performance against the Rays (0-2) Scoring patterns at home (avg. 4.5 runs per game) Defensive performance at home (avg. 1.6 runs allowed) Current losing streak (2 games) Simulation Results: Padres wins: 61 games Rays wins: 39 games Average score: Padres 3.2, Rays 2.1 Most common outcome: Padres 3, Rays 2 (occurred in 17 simulations) One-run games: 43% of all simulations Shutouts: 12% of all simulations Prediction Confidence: 61% chance of a Padres win Most likely to be a low-scoring, close game 78% chance the Padres score at least 2 runs I am making ruling here. There are guys you can hit and there guys you can't... Reduced 5 unit pick on Padres. Also Over! Cause martingale starts here on Padres overs. After such low scoring outcomes the totals line of 8.5 is inviting under money. Over 8.5 -105 1 unit +150The little bastard beat me flat :) My better half has a field day :). She asked me: so, can you describe how it feels to be an idiot? Write it down now so you can never forget it "genius". :). Yeap. A better half as they say...
Hilarious
0
Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN:
Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN: SD Padres ML -116 $870 5 units (this is the case we discussed earlier about not going blindly against the obvious lack of interest in an interleague matchup. We will revaluate the Padres after tonight's game. The machine is split in its decision on this game although regularly there would be no question regarding the 3rd game of the series where the Padres are at the danger of being swept in front of the home crowd. Version 1: Prediction for Tonight's Game (Padres vs. Rays) The Padres are hosting the Rays at PETCO Park for the series finale. The Rays are aiming for a sweep, with Zack Littell (0-5, 5.28 ERA) starting for Tampa Bay and Randy Vasquez (1-2, 3.97 ERA) pitching for San Diego. The Padres' offense has been struggling, scoring just one run in their last 34 innings, while the Rays have been on a three-game winning streak. Prediction: Rays 4, Padres 2. The Rays' recent momentum and Littell's ability to limit damage could give them the edge, despite his struggles this season. Final Precise Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays 3 - San Diego Padres 2 (about a 55% chance Rays win a low-scoring game) Betting advice (based on simulation): Under 7 runs strong play Lean Rays ML (moneyline win) Exact scores most common: 3-2, 4-2, 2-1 type games. Padres vs. Rays Simulation (100 Simuklations) Based on the Padres' season metrics and current trends: Home winning percentage (.800) Recent performance against the Rays (0-2) Scoring patterns at home (avg. 4.5 runs per game) Defensive performance at home (avg. 1.6 runs allowed) Current losing streak (2 games) Simulation Results: Padres wins: 61 games Rays wins: 39 games Average score: Padres 3.2, Rays 2.1 Most common outcome: Padres 3, Rays 2 (occurred in 17 simulations) One-run games: 43% of all simulations Shutouts: 12% of all simulations Prediction Confidence: 61% chance of a Padres win Most likely to be a low-scoring, close game 78% chance the Padres score at least 2 runs I am making ruling here. There are guys you can hit and there guys you can't... Reduced 5 unit pick on Padres. Also Over! Cause martingale starts here on Padres overs. After such low scoring outcomes the totals line of 8.5 is inviting under money. Over 8.5 -105 1 unit +150The little bastard beat me flat :) My better half has a field day :). She asked me: so, can you describe how it feels to be an idiot? Write it down now so you can never forget it "genius". :). Yeap. A better half as they say...
Wish you well. If the handicapping is good, it should flourish.
+$150
me too
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