Posted:
#426
Rangers (TEX) @ Yankees (NYY) ATS 1 NYY -1.5 1 2.89 +189
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New MLB 2025 thread after completing the first Doubling the Bankroll Cycle
Posted:
#432
Rangers (TEX) @ Yankees (NYY) ML 1 NYY ML 1 1.87 -115 $115
Rangers (TEX) @ Yankees (NYY) ATS 1 NYY -1.5 1 2.89 +189 $100
Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) ATS 1 NYM +1.5 1 1.59 -170 -$170
Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) ML 3 NYM ML 9 1.76 -132 $396
Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) Totals 3 Over 8 9 2.01 +101 $300
Diamondbacks (ARI) @ Dodgers (LAD) ATS 3 LAD -1.5 9 2.40 +140 $300
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Posted:
#434
Rangers (TEX) @ Yankees (NYY) ML 1 NYY ML 1 1.87 -115 $115 Win +$100
Rangers (TEX) @ Yankees (NYY) ATS 1 NYY -1.5 1 2.89 +189 $100 Loss -$100
Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) ATS 1 NYM +1.5 1 1.59 -170 -$170 Win +$100
Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) ML 3 NYM ML 9 1.76 -132 $396 Win +$300
Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) Totals 3 Over 8 9 2.01 +101 $300 Loss -$300
Diamondbacks (ARI) @ Dodgers (LAD) ATS 3 LAD -1.5 9 2.40 +140 $300 Win +$420
Padres (SD) @ Blue Jays (TOR) ML 3 SD ML9 2.30 +130 $900 Loss -$900
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Posted:
#436
May 22 — Picks (risk ≈ 9.0 U)
|
Game |
Pick & line* |
Units |
Edge snapshot |
|
Rangers @ Yankees 12:35 ET |
Over 8.5 (-110) |
1 |
19 mph out to RF; Rodón HR/FB 15 % vs 118 OPS+ TEX; NYY pen fresh but Rangers pen gassed. |
|
Padres @ Blue Jays 1:07 ET |
Padres ML (-118) |
3 |
Kolek 2.33 ERA, 55 % GB; Francis 5.63 ERA, Jays Tier-2 pen taxed; roof closed limits Toronto HR edge. |
|
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers 10:10 ET |
Under 8 (-105) |
3 |
Pfaadt v Stone; Stone 30.1 CSW last two; 7 mph in from LF; D-backs pen 1 IP Wed keeps Tier-3 rested. |
|
Rays @ Red Sox 7:10 ET |
Red Sox ML (+102) |
1 |
Boston 117 OPS+ at home; Littell vs Crawford (0.92 WHIP May); Nor’easter leaves damp air + swirling L-to-R wind—favors Sox spray hitters. |
|
Brewers @ Orioles 6:35 ET |
Under 8.5 (-110) |
1 |
American Family roof likely closed; Sugano 53 % GB vs Kremer (return); O’s bats still ice-cold (.289 wOBA last 10). |
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Posted:
#437
Everyday I'm posting machine predictions based on different criteria. Some with structured data and another with unstructured. The reason I'm doing that is to get closer to the house which is known to maintain it's profitability. I'm not sure what kind of criteria house used but once we will hit in high rate and over the time we will know that those tools are used by the oddsmakers. if you can't beat them - well, you don't really have to join them but mimic them.
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Posted:
#442
Fascinating thread. You clearly have a talent for numbers and perhaps big data.
Have you considered base lining all of your picks so far and subjecting them to a variety of different betting strategies?
It might show that a particular strategy was better than your current one, either with ROI but also reduced volatility.
You could then also see the true edge (or lack of) of your generated picks, e.g where would you be if every bet had been made as a $100 wager, and whether you are stronger in your picks or your betting strategy.
Good stuff
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Posted:
#443
Quote Originally Posted by Xdoge:
@ChatBIN Yankees/Rangers Total of 7 due to wind blowing in @ Yankee Stadium with some rain and temps in the low 50's. Good Fortune!
Thanks for the heads up. I know. But, once I committed myself there's a little I can do. My colleagues did hedge it with a risk of losing both bets which I don't usually do or advice others to do - but, seems like they did right@ChatBIN Yankees/Rangers Total of 7 due to wind blowing in @ Yankee Stadium with some rain and temps in the low 50's. Good Fortune!
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Posted:
#444
Quote Originally Posted by R1729amanujan:
Fascinating thread. You clearly have a talent for numbers and perhaps big data. Have you considered base lining all of your picks so far and subjecting them to a variety of different betting strategies? It might show that a particular strategy was better than your current one, either with ROI but also reduced volatility. You could then also see the true edge (or lack of) of your generated picks, e.g where would you be if every bet had been made as a $100 wager, and whether you are stronger in your picks or your betting strategy. Good stuff
Thanks for the kind words. You can't possibly imagine how many crosses and sections we run over the data gathered by ourselves or collected. Here's small example:
Fascinating thread. You clearly have a talent for numbers and perhaps big data. Have you considered base lining all of your picks so far and subjecting them to a variety of different betting strategies? It might show that a particular strategy was better than your current one, either with ROI but also reduced volatility. You could then also see the true edge (or lack of) of your generated picks, e.g where would you be if every bet had been made as a $100 wager, and whether you are stronger in your picks or your betting strategy. Good stuff
This simulation uses the precise late-season records you've provided. Based on this historical data:
-
Atlanta Braves (ATL) and Houston Astros (HOU) show the strongest late-season performance, with estimated win rates around 60.3% and 59.4% respectively. This translates to an average expectation of ~70-71 wins in the remaining 117 games.
-
New York Yankees (NYY) and San Diego Padres (SD) have solid late-season historicals, with estimated win rates around 53.5% and 52.5% respectively, leading to an average of ~61-63 predicted wins.
-
Boston Red Sox (BOS) are projected to perform close to .500 (49.8%) in the late season, averaging around 58 wins.
-
Texas Rangers (TEX) have the lowest historical late-season win rate of this group at 44.3%, predicting around 52 wins in the remaining games.
The "95% CI Win Rate" and "Pred. Wins Range (95% CI)" give you a probable range of outcomes for the late season if teams perform consistently with their 2021-2024 averages for this specific period.
This is just here because that is what I am working right now - how the teams react after their streaks (other set) for the rest of the season for last seasons beginning TODAY. In regard of analysing our own strategies and systems - well, too early to say. Clearly the anomaly between the tickets and the money system world the best with something like 84% hit rate - but, once we stored it and tagged as a winner - we are looking for other systems and strategies and most importantly are trying to find the best way to predict what the house wants.
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Posted:
#445
[Quote: Originally Posted by ChatBIN]May 22 — Picks (risk ˜ 9.0 U) Game Pick & line* Units Edge snapshot Rangers @ Yankees 12:35 ET Over 8.5 (-110) 1 19 mph out to RF; Rodón HR/FB 15 % vs 118 OPS+ TEX; NYY pen fresh but Rangers pen gassed. Padres @ Blue Jays 1:07 ET Padres ML (-118) 3 Kolek 2.33 ERA, 55 % GB; Francis 5.63 ERA, Jays Tier-2 pen taxed; roof closed limits Toronto HR edge. Diamondbacks @ Dodgers 10:10 ET Under 8 (-105) 3 Pfaadt v Stone; Stone 30.1 CSW last two; 7 mph in from LF; D-backs pen 1 IP Wed keeps Tier-3 rested. Rays @ Red Sox 7:10 ET Red Sox ML (+102) 1 Boston 117 OPS+ at home; Littell vs Crawford (0.92 WHIP May); Nor’easter leaves damp air + swirling L-to-R wind—favors Sox spray hitters. Brewers @ Orioles 6:35 ET Under 8.5 (-110) 1 American Family roof likely closed; Sugano 53 % GB vs Kremer (return); O’s bats still ice-cold (.289 wOBA last 10).[/Quote]That was off course an error on part of the machine
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Posted:
#449
Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN:
Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN:
May 22 — Picks (risk ˜ 9.0 U) Game Pick & line* Units Edge snapshot Rangers @ Yankees 12:35 ET Over 8.5 (-110) 1 19 mph out to RF; Rodón HR/FB 15 % vs 118 OPS+ TEX; NYY pen fresh but Rangers pen gassed. Padres @ Blue Jays 1:07 ET Padres ML (-118) 3 Kolek 2.33 ERA, 55 % GB; Francis 5.63 ERA, Jays Tier-2 pen taxed; roof closed limits Toronto HR edge. Diamondbacks @ Dodgers 10:10 ET Under 8 (-105) 3 Pfaadt v Stone; Stone 30.1 CSW last two; 7 mph in from LF; D-backs pen 1 IP Wed keeps Tier-3 rested. Rays @ Red Sox 7:10 ET Red Sox ML (+102) 1 Boston 117 OPS+ at home; Littell vs Crawford (0.92 WHIP May); Nor’easter leaves damp air + swirling L-to-R wind—favors Sox spray hitters. Brewers @ Orioles 6:35 ET Under 8.5 (-110) 1 American Family roof likely closed; Sugano 53 % GB vs Kremer (return); O’s bats still ice-cold (.289 wOBA last 10).
That was off course an error on part of the machineMay 22 — Picks (risk ˜ 9.0 U) Game Pick & line* Units Edge snapshot Rangers @ Yankees 12:35 ET Over 8.5 (-110) 1 19 mph out to RF; Rodón HR/FB 15 % vs 118 OPS+ TEX; NYY pen fresh but Rangers pen gassed. Padres @ Blue Jays 1:07 ET Padres ML (-118) 3 Kolek 2.33 ERA, 55 % GB; Francis 5.63 ERA, Jays Tier-2 pen taxed; roof closed limits Toronto HR edge. Diamondbacks @ Dodgers 10:10 ET Under 8 (-105) 3 Pfaadt v Stone; Stone 30.1 CSW last two; 7 mph in from LF; D-backs pen 1 IP Wed keeps Tier-3 rested. Rays @ Red Sox 7:10 ET Red Sox ML (+102) 1 Boston 117 OPS+ at home; Littell vs Crawford (0.92 WHIP May); Nor’easter leaves damp air + swirling L-to-R wind—favors Sox spray hitters. Brewers @ Orioles 6:35 ET Under 8.5 (-110) 1 American Family roof likely closed; Sugano 53 % GB vs Kremer (return); O’s bats still ice-cold (.289 wOBA last 10).
Machines don't make mistakes. It's human error. So full of it ... constant mistakes on a daily bases. Got a lot of time to talk about unstructured data AI bs but can't use a spreadsheet to keep your records straight. A 1u bet on -110 but type it in as a $100 risk and said "oh I like to risk less" LMAO. It was only a few days ago your were up a little and bragging about the "system" is working with calculated weekly ROI. My goodness.... and what happened to your fancy series betting system of betting a team to win 1st game and betting the same team lose the 3 game series? What kind of crazy hedging logic is that? You are all over the place in a public arena and deserve to be called out.
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Posted:
#450
Thanks for your response. I love the tools you are losing. I didn’t express myself too well. What I meant to say was, when considering the bets you make and the amounts, I wonder how we can discover which is the better of the two?
Put another way, if you picked the same sides each time but had a different wagering strategy would you win more or less?
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