New MLB 2025 thread after completing the first Doubling the Bankroll Cycle

Rangers (TEX) @ Yankees (NYY) ATS   1 NYY -1.5 1 2.89 +189

Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) ATS   1 NYM +1.5 1 1.59 -170

Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) ML   3 NYM ML 9 1.76 -132

Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) Totals   3 Over 8 9 2.01 +101

Diamondbacks (ARI) @ Dodgers (LAD) ATS   3 LAD -1.5 9 2.40 +140  

Rangers (TEX) @ Yankees (NYY) ML   1 NYY ML 1 1.87 -115  $115

Rangers (TEX) @ Yankees (NYY) ATS   1 NYY -1.5 1 2.89 +189  $100

Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) ATS   1 NYM +1.5 1 1.59 -170 -$170

Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) ML   3 NYM ML 9 1.76 -132  $396

Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) Totals   3 Over 8 9 2.01 +101  $300

Diamondbacks (ARI) @ Dodgers (LAD) ATS   3 LAD -1.5 9 2.40 +140   $300

Padres (SD) @ Blue Jays (TOR) ML   3 SD ML9   2.30 +130   $900

Rangers (TEX) @ Yankees (NYY) ML   1 NYY ML 1 1.87 -115  $115  Win  +$100

Rangers (TEX) @ Yankees (NYY) ATS   1 NYY -1.5 1 2.89 +189  $100   Loss -$100

Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) ATS   1 NYM +1.5 1 1.59 -170 -$170 Win +$100

Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) ML   3 NYM ML 9 1.76 -132  $396 Win +$300

Mets (NYM) @ Red Sox (BOS) Totals   3 Over 8 9 2.01 +101  $300  Loss -$300

Diamondbacks (ARI) @ Dodgers (LAD) ATS   3 LAD -1.5 9 2.40 +140   $300  Win +$420

Padres (SD) @ Blue Jays (TOR) ML   3 SD ML9   2.30 +130   $900  Loss -$900

4-3   -$380

125-149

Bankroll: $3,914-$380=$3,534

May 22 — Picks (risk ≈ 9.0 U)

Everyday I'm posting machine predictions based on different criteria. Some with structured data and another with unstructured. The reason I'm doing that is to get closer to the house which is known to maintain it's profitability. I'm not sure what kind of criteria house used but once we will hit in high rate and over the time we will know that those tools are used by the oddsmakers. if you can't beat them - well, you don't really have to join them but mimic them.

@ChatBIN

 Keep up your good work. Thanks for posting your selections and results.

Please pay attention that the Totals line on the Yankees Rangers game is now 7

@ChatBIN

 Yankees/Rangers Total of 7 due to wind blowing in @ Yankee Stadium with some rain and temps in the low 50's. 

Good Fortune!  

Fascinating thread. You clearly have a talent for numbers and perhaps big data.

Have you considered base lining all of your picks so far and subjecting them to a variety of different betting strategies?

It might show that a particular strategy was better than your current one, either with ROI but also reduced volatility.

You could then also see the true edge (or lack of) of your generated picks, e.g where would you be if every bet had been made as a $100 wager, and whether you are stronger in your picks or your betting strategy.

Good stuff

This simulation uses the precise late-season records you've provided. Based on this historical data:

• Atlanta Braves (ATL) and Houston Astros (HOU) show the strongest late-season performance, with estimated win rates around 60.3% and 59.4% respectively. This translates to an average expectation of ~70-71 wins in the remaining 117 games.

• New York Yankees (NYY) and San Diego Padres (SD) have solid late-season historicals, with estimated win rates around 53.5% and 52.5% respectively, leading to an average of ~61-63 predicted wins.

• Boston Red Sox (BOS) are projected to perform close to .500 (49.8%) in the late season, averaging around 58 wins.

• Texas Rangers (TEX) have the lowest historical late-season win rate of this group at 44.3%, predicting around 52 wins in the remaining games.

The "95% CI Win Rate" and "Pred. Wins Range (95% CI)" give you a probable range of outcomes for the late season if teams perform consistently with their 2021-2024 averages for this specific period.

This is just here because that is what I am working right now - how the teams react after their streaks (other set) for the rest of the season for last seasons beginning TODAY. In regard of analysing our own strategies and systems - well, too early to say. Clearly the anomaly between the tickets and the money system world the best with something like 84% hit rate - but, once we stored it and tagged as a winner - we are looking for other systems and strategies and most importantly are trying to find the best way to predict what the house wants. 

[Quote: Originally Posted by ChatBIN]May 22 — Picks (risk ˜ 9.0 U) Game Pick & line* Units Edge snapshot Rangers @ Yankees 12:35 ET Over 8.5 (-110) 1 19 mph out to RF; Rodón HR/FB 15 % vs 118 OPS+ TEX; NYY pen fresh but Rangers pen gassed.  Padres @ Blue Jays 1:07 ET Padres ML (-118) 3 Kolek 2.33 ERA, 55 % GB; Francis 5.63 ERA, Jays Tier-2 pen taxed; roof closed limits Toronto HR edge.  Diamondbacks @ Dodgers 10:10 ET Under 8 (-105) 3 Pfaadt v Stone; Stone 30.1 CSW last two; 7 mph in from LF; D-backs pen 1 IP Wed keeps Tier-3 rested.  Rays @ Red Sox 7:10 ET Red Sox ML (+102) 1 Boston 117 OPS+ at home; Littell vs Crawford (0.92 WHIP May); Nor’easter leaves damp air + swirling L-to-R wind—favors Sox spray hitters.  Brewers @ Orioles 6:35 ET Under 8.5 (-110) 1 American Family roof likely closed; Sugano 53 % GB vs Kremer (return); O’s bats still ice-cold (.289 wOBA last 10).[/Quote]That was off course an error on part of the machine

Except the first two games the rest was last night games my machine related to. So, we did lose the over on the Yankees and may or may not win with the Padres. But the rest of the games do not exist

I realized that when I came to bet the other games to start soon. It off course allows me to bet the games earlier but then ... Feel like a fool and apologize if I confused anyone

@ChatBIN

 Them pesky Booo Jays Dam pull out ouf there asa that win.

Machines don't make mistakes.  It's human error.  So full of it ... constant mistakes on a daily bases.  Got a lot of time to talk about unstructured data AI bs but can't use a spreadsheet to keep your records straight.  A 1u bet on -110 but type it in as a $100 risk and said "oh I like to risk less" LMAO.  It was only a few days ago your were up a little and bragging about the "system" is working with calculated weekly ROI.  My goodness.... and what happened to your fancy series betting system of betting a team to win 1st game and betting the same team lose the 3 game series?  What kind of crazy hedging logic is that?  You are all over the place in a public arena and deserve to be called out.

Thanks for your response. I love the tools you are losing. I didn’t express myself too well. What I meant to say was, when considering the bets you make and the amounts, I wonder how we can discover which is the better of the two?

Put another way, if you picked the same sides each time but had a different wagering strategy would you win more or less?