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#226
So, after game one some scenarios were eliminated as per HMM (Hidden Markov Model) and we advance in left possible outcomes.
Team A wins 3-0 (1 scenario)
Scenario 1:
- Game 1: Team A wins
- Game 2: Team A wins
- Game 3: Team A wins
Team A wins 2-1 (3 scenarios)
Scenario 1:
- Game 1: Team A wins
- Game 2: Team A wins
- Game 3: Team B wins
Scenario 2:
- Game 1: Team A wins
- Game 2: Team B wins
- Game 3: Team A wins
Scenario 3:
- Game 1: Team B wins
- Game 2: Team A wins
- Game 3: Team A wins
Team B wins 2-1 (3 scenarios)
Scenario 1:
- Game 1: Team B wins
- Game 2: Team B wins
- Game 3: Team A wins
Scenario 2:
- Game 1: Team B wins
- Game 2: Team A wins
- Game 3: Team B wins
Scenario 3:
- Game 1: Team A wins
- Game 2: Team B wins
- Game 3: Team B wins
Team B wins 3-0 (1 scenario)
Scenario 1:
- Game 1: Team B wins
- Game 2: Team B wins
- Game 3: Team B wins
- And we are left only 4 possible scenarios out of 8 while we hold the ACE -SD win in the first game and awaiting for the rest of the cards to be dealt. That way we may be lost an opportunity to cash on both - SD winning the series and the Yankees winning game 1 - but, we have much more opportunities open in two games to come. You can do your own progression models based on 2 possible outcomes of game 2 Martingaling the Yankees X3, and if they lose martingaling them not to be swept with high probability a winner - haven't been swept at home in series other than 2 games series as I remember just off the hand. Etc, etc. And all this with an ACE in the hand when we can hedge and semi hedge any possible outcome in game 2 with ease and even bigger options in game 3.
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