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New MLB 2025 thread after completing the first Doubling the Bankroll Cycle

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Posted: #226

So, after game one some scenarios were eliminated as per HMM (Hidden Markov Model) and we advance in left possible outcomes.

 

Team A wins 3-0 (1 scenario)

Scenario 1:

  • Game 1: Team A wins
  • Game 2: Team A wins
  • Game 3: Team A wins

Team A wins 2-1 (3 scenarios)

Scenario 1:

  • Game 1: Team A wins
  • Game 2: Team A wins
  • Game 3: Team B wins

Scenario 2:

  • Game 1: Team A wins
  • Game 2: Team B wins
  • Game 3: Team A wins

Scenario 3:

  • Game 1: Team B wins
  • Game 2: Team A wins
  • Game 3: Team A wins

Team B wins 2-1 (3 scenarios)

Scenario 1:

  • Game 1: Team B wins
  • Game 2: Team B wins
  • Game 3: Team A wins

Scenario 2:

  • Game 1: Team B wins
  • Game 2: Team A wins
  • Game 3: Team B wins

Scenario 3:

  • Game 1: Team A wins
  • Game 2: Team B wins
  • Game 3: Team B wins

Team B wins 3-0 (1 scenario)

Scenario 1:

    • Game 1: Team B wins
    • Game 2: Team B wins
    • Game 3: Team B wins

 

    And we are left only 4 possible scenarios out of 8 while we hold the ACE -SD win in the first game and awaiting for the rest of the cards to be dealt. That way we may be lost an opportunity to cash on both - SD winning the series and the Yankees winning game 1 - but, we have much more opportunities open in two games to come. You can do your own progression models based on 2 possible outcomes of game 2 Martingaling the Yankees X3, and if they lose martingaling them not to be swept with high probability a winner - haven't been swept at home in series other than 2 games series as I remember just off the hand. Etc, etc. And all this with an ACE in the hand when we can hedge and semi hedge any possible outcome in game 2 with ease and even bigger options in game 3.
 
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Posted: #227

NY Mets to win the series against ARI D'Backs    -120    $810  (4.5 units of $150)

NY Mets ML -108   $729 (4.5 units of $150)

MIL Brewers - HOU Astros Under 8  -108  $486  moneybag

SD Padres to win the Series against NY Yankees +155   $150

NY Yankees ML  -142  $213 (yeah, I know. Contradicting myself. But, I'm not. Rather hedging with an edge) an_burningbag

 
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Posted: #228

NY Mets to win the series against ARI D'Backs    -120    $810  (4.5 units of $150)   The Mets are leading 1-0

NY Mets ML -108   $729 (4.5 units of $150) moneybag

MIL Brewers - HOU Astros Under 8  -108  $486  moneybag

SD Padres to win the Series against NY Yankees +155   $150  The Padres are leading 1-0

NY Yankees ML  -142  $213 (yeah, I know. Contradicting myself. But, I'm not. Rather hedging with an edge) an_burningbag

 

 
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Posted: #229

Monday

2-1  +$912

80-87 overall

Current bankroll  $8,197  (we also have two pending bets paid $960 on series being led in both instances)

This is a bankroll after doubling $5K into $10,391 and withdrawing $2,500.

 
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Posted: #230

TEX Rangers ML  -120  $180

NY Yankees ML  -111  $500

LA Angels to win the series against TOR Blue Jays +120  $150

TOR Blue Jays ML (game 1) -111  $165

COL Rockies ML  +160  $150

COL Rockies to win the series against the Tigers  +160   $150

 
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Posted: #231

@ChatBIN

 clover

 
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Posted: #232
Fascinating. I'm intrigued. I've read about the Markov model and have been "nightingaling" for years, but I've never fully committed to a Nightingale strategy. With books using machine learning, bettors need more than just watching a ton baseball to compete. I have a few simple questions. By the way, thank you for your work on this!
 
Wouldn't a straightforward way to profit be to only place your "heavy" bets? You're profitable despite a losing record (no offense), so it seems you're winning most of your heavily weighted bets. Would focusing on those maximize returns?
 
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Posted: #233

Quote Originally Posted by AtlantaGambler:

@ChatBIN
clover

 
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Posted: #234

Quote Originally Posted by In19944:

Fascinating. I'm intrigued. I've read about the Markov model and have been "nightingaling" for years, but I've never fully committed to a Nightingale strategy. With books using machine learning, bettors need more than just watching a ton baseball to compete. I have a few simple questions. By the way, thank you for your work on this!   Wouldn't a straightforward way to profit be to only place your "heavy" bets? You're profitable despite a losing record (no offense), so it seems you're winning most of your heavily weighted bets. Would focusing on those maximize returns?
First, thanks for kind words. 
To your question: no. The path to heavier bets is thru HMM and "nightingale" - therefore, I have to start somewhere. And that "somewhere" happens when certain criteria for an initial bet is answered. If I'll start guessing and will leave the initial bet unattended - then the next bet might be  the initial one and in case the first initial bet wins - I have no more second "initial" bet and "criteria answered" will be wasted. That would lead to chaos and chaotic single bets with no betting logic behind them.  

 
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Posted: #235

Total exposure including series bets from yesterday: $2,255

 
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Posted: #236

@ChatBIN

Yikes....you're scaring me away from my Detroit bet tonight...

 
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Posted: #237

@tvigilante2020

 Rain takes care of that

 
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Posted: #238

@garister

 thumbs_up

I don't see the Rockies sweeping Detroit in a doubleheader...but I'll do my research first.

 
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Posted: #239

peacean_light

 
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Posted: #240

TEX Rangers ML  -120  $180  moneybag

NY Yankees ML  -111  $500 moneybag

LA Angels to win the series against TOR Blue Jays +120  $150

TOR Blue Jays ML (game 1) -111  $165

COL Rockies ML  +160  $150  Void. Check tomorrow to see if I will repeat it.

COL Rockies to win the series against the Tigers  +160   $150  The bet stays

 

 
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Posted: #241

So, after game 2 some more scenarios were eliminated as per HMM (Hidden Markov Model) and we advance to two last possible outcomes one of which we already have covered [SD Padres Series win pending $150 bet at +155, while we are already in a profit with the bet won on Yankees (($450 (game 2 win)- $142 (game 1 loss)=+$308))]. So, while in +4308, we also have a "free" bet on the Yankees an_light.  

Team A wins 3-0 (1 scenario)

Scenario 1:

  • Game 1: Team A wins
  • Game 2: Team A wins
  • Game 3: Team A wins

Team A wins 2-1 (3 scenarios)

Scenario 1:

  • Game 1: Team A wins
  • Game 2: Team A wins
  • Game 3: Team B wins

Scenario 2:

  • Game 1: Team A wins
  • Game 2: Team B wins
  • Game 3: Team A wins

Scenario 3:

  • Game 1: Team B wins
  • Game 2: Team A wins
  • Game 3: Team A wins

Team B wins 2-1 (3 scenarios)

Scenario 1:

  • Game 1: Team B wins
  • Game 2: Team B wins
  • Game 3: Team A wins

Scenario 2:

  • Game 1: Team B wins
  • Game 2: Team A wins
  • Game 3: Team B wins

Scenario 3:

  • Game 1: Team A wins
  • Game 2: Team B wins
  • Game 3: Team B wins

Team B wins 3-0 (1 scenario)

Scenario 1:

    • Game 1: Team B wins
    • Game 2: Team B wins
    • Game 3: Team B wins
    <

 
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Posted: #242

Typo in a previous postan_light

Quote: So, while in +4308, we also have a "free" bet on the Yankees an_light.  End Quote

Should be : So, while in +$308, we also have a free bet on the Yankees an_light

I miss typed 4 instead of $ cool

 
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Posted: #243

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #244

Quote Originally Posted by In19944:

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #245

TEX Rangers ML  -120  $180  moneybag

NY Yankees ML  -111  $500 moneybag

LA Angels to win the series against TOR Blue Jays +120  $150  (Leading the series 1-0 after tonight's win and we have repeatedly the HMM and "nightingale" like in Yankees Padres series

TOR Blue Jays ML (game 1) -111  $165  an_burningbag

COL Rockies ML  +160  $150  Void. Check tomorrow to see if I will repeat it.

COL Rockies to win the series against the Tigers  +160   $150  The bet stays

 
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Posted: #246

2-1   +$435

82-88 overall

Current bankroll  $8,632  (-$1,260 on pending series bets, 1-1 Yankees Padres, 1-1 ARI Mets, 1-0 LAA (our pick was LAA to win the series against the Blue lays and 0-0 between the Rockies and the Tigers))

This is a bankroll after doubling $5K into $10,391 and withdrawing $2,500.

 
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Posted: #247

I owe you an apology for lashing at you the last time I commented. At the beginning I was very excited about all you do, but, at some stage I felt (wrongly so) that it is all too good to be true. And, started to look for symptoms that weren't actually there. Yes. Your model is sound and you didn't really have a quantum computing capabilities. You also are a very positive person and huge contributor to our brethren of half genius and half crazy degens. 

Thanks for your effort and stamina!

 

Respectpeace_5

 
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Posted: #248

Quote Originally Posted by ClaudeShannon1:

I owe you an apology for lashing at you the last time I commented. At the beginning I was very excited about all you do, but, at some stage I felt (wrongly so) that it is all too good to be true. And, started to look for symptoms that weren't actually there. Yes. Your model is sound and you didn't really have a quantum computing capabilities. You also are a very positive person and huge contributor to our brethren of half genius and half crazy degens.  Thanks for your effort and stamina!   Respect
peace_5

 
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Posted: #249

Interesting thread just found, curious on todays plays of any or just riding the series bets here on out ?

 
 
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Posted: #250

Alternate Run Lines 

NY Yankees -1  -125  $187

 

 

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