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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    New MLB 2025 thread after completing the first Doubling the Bankroll Cycle

    «First Previous 121314 ... 222324 Next Last»
    ChatBIN
    umgmu
    AtlantaGambler
    Brickboy
    In19944
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 9280
    Posts: 588
    «First Previous 121314 ... 222324 Next Last»
     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 9:35 AM ET #276

    Quote Originally Posted by AtlantaGambler:

    @ChatBIN    Thanks for your hard work and posting
    Thanks. Enjoying every moment of my/our "hard work". Man/Woman who loves what he/she does - never works. (I just received a lovely hug from my better half for "not being a sexist"). Ok. I'll take free hugs from her anytime  :)

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    Quote Originally Posted by AtlantaGambler:

    @ChatBIN    Thanks for your hard work and posting
    Thanks. Enjoying every moment of my/our "hard work". Man/Woman who loves what he/she does - never works. (I just received a lovely hug from my better half for "not being a sexist"). Ok. I'll take free hugs from her anytime  :)

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 9:42 AM ET #277

    PHI Phillies ML  -125  $188

    PHI Phillies -1.5 +136  $150

    DET Tigers ML  -111  $150

    DET Tigers -1.5  +180  $150

    CHI Cubs ML  +125  $150

    NY Yankees -1.5 +100  $150

    NY Yankees ML  -152  $228

     

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    PHI Phillies ML  -125  $188

    PHI Phillies -1.5 +136  $150

    DET Tigers ML  -111  $150

    DET Tigers -1.5  +180  $150

    CHI Cubs ML  +125  $150

    NY Yankees -1.5 +100  $150

    NY Yankees ML  -152  $228

     

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 9:44 AM ET #278

    All Saturday picks together:

     

    WAS Nationals ML  -105  $158

    WAS Nationals - STL Cardinals Under 9  -105 $473

    SEA Mariners - TOR Blue Jays Under 8  -108  $486

    SF Giants ML -105  $945

    PHI Phillies ML  -125  $188

    PHI Phillies -1.5 +136  $150

    DET Tigers ML  -111  $150

    DET Tigers -1.5  +180  $150

    CHI Cubs ML  +125  $150

    NY Yankees -1.5 +100  $150

    NY Yankees ML  -152  $228

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    All Saturday picks together:

     

    WAS Nationals ML  -105  $158

    WAS Nationals - STL Cardinals Under 9  -105 $473

    SEA Mariners - TOR Blue Jays Under 8  -108  $486

    SF Giants ML -105  $945

    PHI Phillies ML  -125  $188

    PHI Phillies -1.5 +136  $150

    DET Tigers ML  -111  $150

    DET Tigers -1.5  +180  $150

    CHI Cubs ML  +125  $150

    NY Yankees -1.5 +100  $150

    NY Yankees ML  -152  $228

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posts: 644
    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 9:59 AM ET #279

    Total exposure Saturday  $3,228

     

    And, I am repeating summary of what we did here till now cause it is important for me and all who collaborates with me - the colleagues from Math dpt as well as the Grad students who put many hours of work testing our code and enhancing it - we want to get the message thru. Betting on sporting events outcome is not much different than trading. And trading is not one trade or one day trading dependent. It is series of positions taken while most important and the second most important and the third most important things in any order are: max data set going to oldest possible to get, data analysis based on reverse engineering and sound money management. In simple words -if a certain trend is 100 years old and has a hit rate of 53% percent - the most important fact is that by following it you will be right 100% in 53% of it. And the trends we follow and the numbers we crunch are way better than that and if not our clumsiness in applying all what machine dictates and if not our human chicken shit interferences - we would be holding a positive W/L record, but, the most amazing thing is that employing HMM (hidden Markov model) and integrating it with X3 Martingale system - we created a probabilistic progression  model based on volatility that allows us even with losing record to gain profits of $7,174 in a period of 35 days since we began here with daily posts on April 4th before moving to this format. 

    So, here is the summary again for those who missed it: 

    Started this season MLB journey on April 4th 2025 with the first thread https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/friday-mlb-103944347. Daily threads evolved into this thread.
    April 4th thru last night - Friday, May the 9th 2025 - 5 weeks or 35 betting days - our record is 92-99, but, with a twist - we are profitable as follows: 

    We started with $5,000 bankroll, doubled it with plus into $10,391 and withdrew $2,500. Our current bankroll stands at $9,674. 

    So, $9,674+$2,500=$12,174. That means that we have profited $12,174-$5,000=$7,174 net profit. Despite a losing record... That is a proof our system works, so far. To be mathematically precise - we earn a daily average of $204.97. Everyday. 

    But, the most important part of all this is that we grow our capital and also have established source of an extra steady monthly income (these $2,500 we have already withdrawn after cycle of 1 of doubling the bankroll).

    Those who follow this thread on daily basis (hope there are few) know that there is not even a molecule of bragging or self padding on the shoulder in what I just wrote.

    No. I am just trying to do my best - me and my colleagues and grad students - to convert regular betting folk into a disciplined professionals utilizing sports market inefficiencies for steady financial gains.

    So, knock knock is here... Whether you open the door and let the light in is up to you! I thank Almighty for this opportunity (and everything else since my first breath) every single moment of my day every day! And I feel great responsibility and gratitude at the same time!!!

     
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    Total exposure Saturday  $3,228

     

    And, I am repeating summary of what we did here till now cause it is important for me and all who collaborates with me - the colleagues from Math dpt as well as the Grad students who put many hours of work testing our code and enhancing it - we want to get the message thru. Betting on sporting events outcome is not much different than trading. And trading is not one trade or one day trading dependent. It is series of positions taken while most important and the second most important and the third most important things in any order are: max data set going to oldest possible to get, data analysis based on reverse engineering and sound money management. In simple words -if a certain trend is 100 years old and has a hit rate of 53% percent - the most important fact is that by following it you will be right 100% in 53% of it. And the trends we follow and the numbers we crunch are way better than that and if not our clumsiness in applying all what machine dictates and if not our human chicken shit interferences - we would be holding a positive W/L record, but, the most amazing thing is that employing HMM (hidden Markov model) and integrating it with X3 Martingale system - we created a probabilistic progression  model based on volatility that allows us even with losing record to gain profits of $7,174 in a period of 35 days since we began here with daily posts on April 4th before moving to this format. 

    So, here is the summary again for those who missed it: 

    Started this season MLB journey on April 4th 2025 with the first thread https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting-27/friday-mlb-103944347. Daily threads evolved into this thread.
    April 4th thru last night - Friday, May the 9th 2025 - 5 weeks or 35 betting days - our record is 92-99, but, with a twist - we are profitable as follows: 

    We started with $5,000 bankroll, doubled it with plus into $10,391 and withdrew $2,500. Our current bankroll stands at $9,674. 

    So, $9,674+$2,500=$12,174. That means that we have profited $12,174-$5,000=$7,174 net profit. Despite a losing record... That is a proof our system works, so far. To be mathematically precise - we earn a daily average of $204.97. Everyday. 

    But, the most important part of all this is that we grow our capital and also have established source of an extra steady monthly income (these $2,500 we have already withdrawn after cycle of 1 of doubling the bankroll).

    Those who follow this thread on daily basis (hope there are few) know that there is not even a molecule of bragging or self padding on the shoulder in what I just wrote.

    No. I am just trying to do my best - me and my colleagues and grad students - to convert regular betting folk into a disciplined professionals utilizing sports market inefficiencies for steady financial gains.

    So, knock knock is here... Whether you open the door and let the light in is up to you! I thank Almighty for this opportunity (and everything else since my first breath) every single moment of my day every day! And I feel great responsibility and gratitude at the same time!!!

     
     
    umgmu
    umgmu
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 10:09 AM ET #280

    Most people can't fathom having a losing record but your ROI is positive.

    It's because most take favs and heavy ( -160 and higher regularly).

     

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    Most people can't fathom having a losing record but your ROI is positive.

    It's because most take favs and heavy ( -160 and higher regularly).

     

     
    AtlantaGambler
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 10:12 AM ET #281

    @ChatBIN

     clover Best of Luck

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    @ChatBIN

     clover Best of Luck

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 10:31 AM ET #282

    Quote Originally Posted by umgmu:

    Most people can't fathom having a losing record but your ROI is positive. It's because most take favs and heavy ( -160 and higher regularly).
    HMM and "Nightingale"X3 are mostly responsible for a positive ROI. And we are profiting over $7K not because of me but despite of my interferences with the machine. I have to learn to completely trust the machine and that takes time. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by umgmu:

    Most people can't fathom having a losing record but your ROI is positive. It's because most take favs and heavy ( -160 and higher regularly).
    HMM and "Nightingale"X3 are mostly responsible for a positive ROI. And we are profiting over $7K not because of me but despite of my interferences with the machine. I have to learn to completely trust the machine and that takes time. 

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 10:32 AM ET #283

    Quote Originally Posted by AtlantaGambler:

    @ChatBIN   Best of Luck
    Same clover

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    Quote Originally Posted by AtlantaGambler:

    @ChatBIN   Best of Luck
    Same clover

     
    Brickboy
    Brickboy
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 12:30 PM ET #284

    @ChatBIN

     Appreciate the work you and your colleagues put in and the opportunity you have given us to join in.

    Thank you and GOOD LUCK!

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    @ChatBIN

     Appreciate the work you and your colleagues put in and the opportunity you have given us to join in.

    Thank you and GOOD LUCK!

     
    In19944
    In19944
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    Posts: 475
    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 12:50 PM ET #285

    clover

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    clover

     
    In19944
    In19944
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 1:09 PM ET #286

    @ChatBIN

    I have a smaller, separate account for your picks, and it’s doing well, growing steadily. Some days I miss your picks, so I don’t bet on that account, which makes it harder to track its performance. I lack the discipline to avoid “gut” picks on my main account, where I’m a fan. I do alright but want to improve my odds any way I can. Any recommended reading on Hidden Markov Models (HMM)? Also, you mentioned “nightingale” earlier—is that different from Martingale? Thanks, man!

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    @ChatBIN

    I have a smaller, separate account for your picks, and it’s doing well, growing steadily. Some days I miss your picks, so I don’t bet on that account, which makes it harder to track its performance. I lack the discipline to avoid “gut” picks on my main account, where I’m a fan. I do alright but want to improve my odds any way I can. Any recommended reading on Hidden Markov Models (HMM)? Also, you mentioned “nightingale” earlier—is that different from Martingale? Thanks, man!

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 3:50 PM ET #287

    Quote Originally Posted by Brickboy:

    @ChatBIN  Appreciate the work you and your colleagues put in and the opportunity you have given us to join in. Thank you and GOOD LUCK!
    peace_5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brickboy:

    @ChatBIN  Appreciate the work you and your colleagues put in and the opportunity you have given us to join in. Thank you and GOOD LUCK!
    peace_5

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 3:55 PM ET #288

    Quote Originally Posted by In19944:

    @ChatBIN I have a smaller, separate account for your picks, and it’s doing well, growing steadily. Some days I miss your picks, so I don’t bet on that account, which makes it harder to track its performance. I lack the discipline to avoid “gut” picks on my main account, where I’m a fan. I do alright but want to improve my odds any way I can. Any recommended reading on Hidden Markov Models (HMM)? Also, you mentioned “nightingale” earlier—is that different from Martingale? Thanks, man!
    I recommend listening to podcasts: acquired is the name of the podcast and renaissance or rentech is name of episode. Another great podcast source is Founders. #92, #93, #95 and #222. Those episodes will explain well all the techniques that were used and are still used to make money from betting. Those are fascinating episodes. Regarding "nightingale" it is the name used in one of the comments and I just decided that it is an entertaining name for martingale.an_light 

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    Quote Originally Posted by In19944:

    @ChatBIN I have a smaller, separate account for your picks, and it’s doing well, growing steadily. Some days I miss your picks, so I don’t bet on that account, which makes it harder to track its performance. I lack the discipline to avoid “gut” picks on my main account, where I’m a fan. I do alright but want to improve my odds any way I can. Any recommended reading on Hidden Markov Models (HMM)? Also, you mentioned “nightingale” earlier—is that different from Martingale? Thanks, man!
    I recommend listening to podcasts: acquired is the name of the podcast and renaissance or rentech is name of episode. Another great podcast source is Founders. #92, #93, #95 and #222. Those episodes will explain well all the techniques that were used and are still used to make money from betting. Those are fascinating episodes. Regarding "nightingale" it is the name used in one of the comments and I just decided that it is an entertaining name for martingale.an_light 

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 3:57 PM ET #289

    Adding: 

    BOS Red Sox ML -105  $158

    BOS Red Sox -1.5 +165  $150

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    Adding: 

    BOS Red Sox ML -105  $158

    BOS Red Sox -1.5 +165  $150

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 9:44 PM ET #290

    So fat this evening

    WAS Nationals ML  -105  $158 an_burningbag

    WAS Nationals - STL Cardinals Under 9  -105 $473 moneybag

    SEA Mariners - TOR Blue Jays Under 8  -108  $486

    SF Giants ML -105  $945 an_burningbag

    PHI Phillies ML  -125  $188 moneybag

    PHI Phillies -1.5 +136  $150 moneybag

    DET Tigers ML  -111  $150 an_burningbag

    DET Tigers -1.5  +180  $150 an_burningbag

    CHI Cubs ML  +125  $150

    NY Yankees -1.5 +100  $150 an_burningbag

    NY Yankees ML  -152  $228 an_burningbag

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    So fat this evening

    WAS Nationals ML  -105  $158 an_burningbag

    WAS Nationals - STL Cardinals Under 9  -105 $473 moneybag

    SEA Mariners - TOR Blue Jays Under 8  -108  $486

    SF Giants ML -105  $945 an_burningbag

    PHI Phillies ML  -125  $188 moneybag

    PHI Phillies -1.5 +136  $150 moneybag

    DET Tigers ML  -111  $150 an_burningbag

    DET Tigers -1.5  +180  $150 an_burningbag

    CHI Cubs ML  +125  $150

    NY Yankees -1.5 +100  $150 an_burningbag

    NY Yankees ML  -152  $228 an_burningbag

     
    tvigilante2020
    tvigilante2020
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 10:02 PM ET #291

    Interesting thread...will.continie to watch.peace_5

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    Interesting thread...will.continie to watch.peace_5

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 10, 2025 - 11:57 PM ET #292

    WAS Nationals ML  -105  $158 an_burningbag

    WAS Nationals - STL Cardinals Under 9  -105 $473 moneybag

    SEA Mariners - TOR Blue Jays Under 8  -108  $486 an_burningbag

    SF Giants ML -105  $945 an_burningbag

    PHI Phillies ML  -125  $188 moneybag

    PHI Phillies -1.5 +136  $150 moneybag

    DET Tigers ML  -111  $150 an_burningbag

    DET Tigers -1.5  +180  $150 an_burningbag

    CHI Cubs ML  +125  $150 moneybag

    NY Yankees -1.5 +100  $150 an_burningbag

    NY Yankees ML  -152  $228 an_burningbag

    Reply
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    WAS Nationals ML  -105  $158 an_burningbag

    WAS Nationals - STL Cardinals Under 9  -105 $473 moneybag

    SEA Mariners - TOR Blue Jays Under 8  -108  $486 an_burningbag

    SF Giants ML -105  $945 an_burningbag

    PHI Phillies ML  -125  $188 moneybag

    PHI Phillies -1.5 +136  $150 moneybag

    DET Tigers ML  -111  $150 an_burningbag

    DET Tigers -1.5  +180  $150 an_burningbag

    CHI Cubs ML  +125  $150 moneybag

    NY Yankees -1.5 +100  $150 an_burningbag

    NY Yankees ML  -152  $228 an_burningbag

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 11, 2025 - 12:04 AM ET #293

    Saturday:

    4-7  -$1,275

    96-106 overall

    Current bankroll $9,674 - $1,275 = $8,399

    This is a bankroll after doubling $5K into $10,391 and withdrawing $2,500.

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    Saturday:

    4-7  -$1,275

    96-106 overall

    Current bankroll $9,674 - $1,275 = $8,399

    This is a bankroll after doubling $5K into $10,391 and withdrawing $2,500.

     
    raceman06
    raceman06
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    Posts: 1264
    Posted: May. 11, 2025 - 12:12 AM ET #294

    That Giants game hurts the most. 3rd base 1 out and he gets picked off. What a terrible blunder. 

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    That Giants game hurts the most. 3rd base 1 out and he gets picked off. What a terrible blunder. 

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 11, 2025 - 2:26 AM ET #295

    Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:

    Interesting thread...will.continie to watch.
    Me too  :)

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    Quote Originally Posted by tvigilante2020:

    Interesting thread...will.continie to watch.
    Me too  :)

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posts: 644
    Posted: May. 11, 2025 - 2:31 AM ET #296

    Quote Originally Posted by raceman06:

    That Giants game hurts the most. 3rd base 1 out and he gets picked off. What a terrible blunder.
    Yes. It is annoying to see pseudo professionals that are getting paid such sums and aren't delivering. But, that's entertainment and all kinds of errors and mischiefs, fixes or not - that's what makes sports such fun. I'm sure people having their money on the Twins were ecstatic and let's be happy for them. After all - they are members of the same brethren as we are. We? We will get it back and in larger portions.  peace_5

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    Quote Originally Posted by raceman06:

    That Giants game hurts the most. 3rd base 1 out and he gets picked off. What a terrible blunder.
    Yes. It is annoying to see pseudo professionals that are getting paid such sums and aren't delivering. But, that's entertainment and all kinds of errors and mischiefs, fixes or not - that's what makes sports such fun. I'm sure people having their money on the Twins were ecstatic and let's be happy for them. After all - they are members of the same brethren as we are. We? We will get it back and in larger portions.  peace_5

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 11, 2025 - 2:36 AM ET #297

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN:

    Quote Originally Posted by raceman06: That Giants game hurts the most. 3rd base 1 out and he gets picked off. What a terrible blunder.Yes. It is annoying to see pseudo professionals that are getting paid such sums and aren't delivering. But, that's entertainment and all kinds of errors and mischiefs, fixes or not - that's what makes sports such fun. I'm sure people having their money on the Twins were ecstatic and let's be happy for them. After all - they are members of the same brethren as we are. We? We will get it back and in larger portions.

    My better half just read what I wrote and asked me not to sleep on my back in case angel wings will grow up at night and followed it with devilish laughter that would qualify her to be a choir girl for the Stones  :)

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChatBIN:

    Quote Originally Posted by raceman06: That Giants game hurts the most. 3rd base 1 out and he gets picked off. What a terrible blunder.Yes. It is annoying to see pseudo professionals that are getting paid such sums and aren't delivering. But, that's entertainment and all kinds of errors and mischiefs, fixes or not - that's what makes sports such fun. I'm sure people having their money on the Twins were ecstatic and let's be happy for them. After all - they are members of the same brethren as we are. We? We will get it back and in larger portions.

    My better half just read what I wrote and asked me not to sleep on my back in case angel wings will grow up at night and followed it with devilish laughter that would qualify her to be a choir girl for the Stones  :)

     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 11, 2025 - 6:30 AM ET #298

    Sunday:

    SEA Mariners - TOR Blue Jays Under 8.5  -118  $797

    SF Giants ML  +120  $1,350

    DET Tigers ML  -115  $518

    NY Mets ML -130  $585

     

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    Sunday:

    SEA Mariners - TOR Blue Jays Under 8.5  -118  $797

    SF Giants ML  +120  $1,350

    DET Tigers ML  -115  $518

    NY Mets ML -130  $585

     

     
    AtlantaGambler
    AtlantaGambler
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    Posted: May. 11, 2025 - 8:52 AM ET #299

    @ChatBIN

     clover Best of Luck

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    @ChatBIN

     clover Best of Luck

     
     
    ChatBIN
    ChatBIN
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    Posted: May. 11, 2025 - 9:04 AM ET #300

    Quote Originally Posted by AtlantaGambler:

    @ChatBIN   Best of Luck
    Sameclover

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    Quote Originally Posted by AtlantaGambler:

    @ChatBIN   Best of Luck
    Sameclover

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