Bad prices on both of your totals both at + money now. I am disappointed in your line shopping.
1. Tell me again what the AZ O/U line is.
2. At the time I bet them, they were the best lines available. If you want to ding me because I didnt get every single line move right - that is fine - but at the time I bet them they were the best lines available - so you can say nothing about line shopping.
Now run along and go look at the AZ total and report back.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by LivinNTheMoment:
Bad prices on both of your totals both at + money now. I am disappointed in your line shopping.
1. Tell me again what the AZ O/U line is.
2. At the time I bet them, they were the best lines available. If you want to ding me because I didnt get every single line move right - that is fine - but at the time I bet them they were the best lines available - so you can say nothing about line shopping.
Now run along and go look at the AZ total and report back.
Van I have a good friend from Scotland and they have a site called betfair which is a lot like Matchbook with a lot more Liquidity. He often did this with golf tournaments buying , then laying different players and made a killing. I told him that there was a lot of money to made on baseball so as Matchbook grows I may have to open an account even though my local is great.
1. Betfair not open to Americans.
2. Betfair commission structure more expensive than MB.
3. Betfair great for European sports (I use it for soccer), not so great for american sports.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by NoWorries21:
Van I have a good friend from Scotland and they have a site called betfair which is a lot like Matchbook with a lot more Liquidity. He often did this with golf tournaments buying , then laying different players and made a killing. I told him that there was a lot of money to made on baseball so as Matchbook grows I may have to open an account even though my local is great.
1. Betfair not open to Americans.
2. Betfair commission structure more expensive than MB.
3. Betfair great for European sports (I use it for soccer), not so great for american sports.
vanzack what percentage of your total bankroll should you play per unit?
I suggest you go to the archives here at covers and read my thread there with "manifesto" in the title.
READ THE WHOLE THING - NOT JUST THE FIRST POST.
I believe in goal oriented wager amounts. It doesnt make sense to suggest an amount without knowing what you want to accomplish. Exact same thing as investing - if you walked in to a financial advisor and asked him "what should I invest in" his first question to you is going to be "what are your goals".
If your goal is double your money in the next 5 games, you have to bet a lot. If your goal is to make 20% over your next 1000 games, you bet differently. I give a formula in that thread for determining your bet amount.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by gswarriors12345:
vanzack what percentage of your total bankroll should you play per unit?
I suggest you go to the archives here at covers and read my thread there with "manifesto" in the title.
READ THE WHOLE THING - NOT JUST THE FIRST POST.
I believe in goal oriented wager amounts. It doesnt make sense to suggest an amount without knowing what you want to accomplish. Exact same thing as investing - if you walked in to a financial advisor and asked him "what should I invest in" his first question to you is going to be "what are your goals".
If your goal is double your money in the next 5 games, you have to bet a lot. If your goal is to make 20% over your next 1000 games, you bet differently. I give a formula in that thread for determining your bet amount.
van, you said you sit everyday on your computer all day watching the lines. So i ask what good is the money if you don't do anything else, and not appreciate life?
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van, you said you sit everyday on your computer all day watching the lines. So i ask what good is the money if you don't do anything else, and not appreciate life?
2. At the time I bet them, they were the best lines available. If you want to ding me because I didnt get every single line move right - that is fine - but at the time I bet them they were the best lines available - so you can say nothing about line shopping.
Now run along and go look at the AZ total and report back.
Most of you cover posters are sensitive. I was teasing someone who prides themselve on getting the best possible line.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
1. Tell me again what the AZ O/U line is.
2. At the time I bet them, they were the best lines available. If you want to ding me because I didnt get every single line move right - that is fine - but at the time I bet them they were the best lines available - so you can say nothing about line shopping.
Now run along and go look at the AZ total and report back.
Most of you cover posters are sensitive. I was teasing someone who prides themselve on getting the best possible line.
Anyone who knows anything about basketball realizes that Eric Maynor is a fucking turd. And he's your icon? Ha. Get off the nuts in this room you ball-less sap.
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Anyone who knows anything about basketball realizes that Eric Maynor is a fucking turd. And he's your icon? Ha. Get off the nuts in this room you ball-less sap.
van, you said you sit everyday on your computer all day watching the lines. So i ask what good is the money if you don't do anything else, and not appreciate life?
So you are chosing to ignore your first obnoxious post about the lines going against me on my totals and that I dont line shop. OK. I will play along anyway.
I have about 4 months off a year. Yes I sit in front of a computer for 8 months a year, but most people do that at work for a douchebag boss, less money, more constraints, and no satisfaction.
I have been home to raise my kids. Want to go to NYC for the week? We go. Want to catch a matinee? I do. Dream about 2 weeks vaca a year? Never. Annual income determined by my own success? Yes. Ever worry about a review or bonus? Never. Isolated, and sometimes yearn for social interaction? Yes, and why I have covers. Go to every single event my kids have? Yes.
I would say overall it is a pretty good lifestyle, but you seem to know better than me - so please enlighten me how I should enjoy life more or some other bullshit. Explaining my life to you is like explaining heaven to bears.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by LivinNTheMoment:
van, you said you sit everyday on your computer all day watching the lines. So i ask what good is the money if you don't do anything else, and not appreciate life?
So you are chosing to ignore your first obnoxious post about the lines going against me on my totals and that I dont line shop. OK. I will play along anyway.
I have about 4 months off a year. Yes I sit in front of a computer for 8 months a year, but most people do that at work for a douchebag boss, less money, more constraints, and no satisfaction.
I have been home to raise my kids. Want to go to NYC for the week? We go. Want to catch a matinee? I do. Dream about 2 weeks vaca a year? Never. Annual income determined by my own success? Yes. Ever worry about a review or bonus? Never. Isolated, and sometimes yearn for social interaction? Yes, and why I have covers. Go to every single event my kids have? Yes.
I would say overall it is a pretty good lifestyle, but you seem to know better than me - so please enlighten me how I should enjoy life more or some other bullshit. Explaining my life to you is like explaining heaven to bears.
Most of you cover posters are sensitive. I was teasing someone who prides themselve on getting the best possible line.
I get the best possible line I can when I bet it.
I cant tell the future. I try to, but there are lots of times I get it wrong. But you can count on one thing - when I go to place a wager - I am getting the best line possible every single time out of all of my options.
Thanks for asking though.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by LivinNTheMoment:
Most of you cover posters are sensitive. I was teasing someone who prides themselve on getting the best possible line.
I get the best possible line I can when I bet it.
I cant tell the future. I try to, but there are lots of times I get it wrong. But you can count on one thing - when I go to place a wager - I am getting the best line possible every single time out of all of my options.
So you are chosing to ignore your first obnoxious post about the lines going against me on my totals and that I dont line shop. OK. I will play along anyway.
I have about 4 months off a year. Yes I sit in front of a computer for 8 months a year, but most people do that at work for a douchebag boss, less money, more constraints, and no satisfaction.
I have been home to raise my kids. Want to go to NYC for the week? We go. Want to catch a matinee? I do. Dream about 2 weeks vaca a year? Never. Annual income determined by my own success? Yes. Ever worry about a review or bonus? Never. Isolated, and sometimes yearn for social interaction? Yes, and why I have covers. Go to every single event my kids have? Yes.
I would say overall it is a pretty good lifestyle, but you seem to know better than me - so please enlighten me how I should enjoy life more or some other bullshit. Explaining my life to you is like explaining heaven to bears.
Classy respond. Respect.
As for the other clown, he isn't worthy of a reply.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
So you are chosing to ignore your first obnoxious post about the lines going against me on my totals and that I dont line shop. OK. I will play along anyway.
I have about 4 months off a year. Yes I sit in front of a computer for 8 months a year, but most people do that at work for a douchebag boss, less money, more constraints, and no satisfaction.
I have been home to raise my kids. Want to go to NYC for the week? We go. Want to catch a matinee? I do. Dream about 2 weeks vaca a year? Never. Annual income determined by my own success? Yes. Ever worry about a review or bonus? Never. Isolated, and sometimes yearn for social interaction? Yes, and why I have covers. Go to every single event my kids have? Yes.
I would say overall it is a pretty good lifestyle, but you seem to know better than me - so please enlighten me how I should enjoy life more or some other bullshit. Explaining my life to you is like explaining heaven to bears.
Classy respond. Respect.
As for the other clown, he isn't worthy of a reply.
as far as buying/selling lines vanzack, I know you are reducing variance. However, over the long term, assuming your bankroll is big enough do you think it is a losing play.
For instance in the Colorado game, let's say you had this at -130 Phils, aren't you losing money in the long run selling it at +136 because inherently that has -EV
That's always my thought process as far as buying and selling goes. Yes you're guaranteeing yourself a slight profit, but I think in the long run, you are throwing away some gains by doing this. From one professional bettor to another, and my guess is we both bet similar amount of money on games.
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as far as buying/selling lines vanzack, I know you are reducing variance. However, over the long term, assuming your bankroll is big enough do you think it is a losing play.
For instance in the Colorado game, let's say you had this at -130 Phils, aren't you losing money in the long run selling it at +136 because inherently that has -EV
That's always my thought process as far as buying and selling goes. Yes you're guaranteeing yourself a slight profit, but I think in the long run, you are throwing away some gains by doing this. From one professional bettor to another, and my guess is we both bet similar amount of money on games.
as far as buying/selling lines vanzack, I know you are reducing variance. However, over the long term, assuming your bankroll is big enough do you think it is a losing play.
For instance in the Colorado game, let's say you had this at -130 Phils, aren't you losing money in the long run selling it at +136 because inherently that has -EV
That's always my thought process as far as buying and selling goes. Yes you're guaranteeing yourself a slight profit, but I think in the long run, you are throwing away some gains by doing this. From one professional bettor to another, and my guess is we both bet similar amount of money on games.
I think he is not selling back merely to make a profit - in the above example he would not sell back - if it hit -130 (his determined fair price) then he would. That way you get the exact same long run EV with reduced volatility.
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Quote Originally Posted by gcnmoo:
as far as buying/selling lines vanzack, I know you are reducing variance. However, over the long term, assuming your bankroll is big enough do you think it is a losing play.
For instance in the Colorado game, let's say you had this at -130 Phils, aren't you losing money in the long run selling it at +136 because inherently that has -EV
That's always my thought process as far as buying and selling goes. Yes you're guaranteeing yourself a slight profit, but I think in the long run, you are throwing away some gains by doing this. From one professional bettor to another, and my guess is we both bet similar amount of money on games.
I think he is not selling back merely to make a profit - in the above example he would not sell back - if it hit -130 (his determined fair price) then he would. That way you get the exact same long run EV with reduced volatility.
BigEv...lets say earlier in the day you saw colorado at +152 and decided to take it for 2 units...then later on you saw philly dropped from -154 to -136...when you buy philly at the price of -136 you are guaranteeing yourself profit...so you buy both lines to guarantee zero risk profit
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BigEv...lets say earlier in the day you saw colorado at +152 and decided to take it for 2 units...then later on you saw philly dropped from -154 to -136...when you buy philly at the price of -136 you are guaranteeing yourself profit...so you buy both lines to guarantee zero risk profit
dory, that makes plenty of sense if that is the case. I'm not sure that is how he does it though. I usually only make bets if the line is at least 15-20 pts off, rarely does it turn around to get back to the breaking point. If it did, I would 100% agree with the assessment of selling at that point.
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dory, that makes plenty of sense if that is the case. I'm not sure that is how he does it though. I usually only make bets if the line is at least 15-20 pts off, rarely does it turn around to get back to the breaking point. If it did, I would 100% agree with the assessment of selling at that point.
Moo - I think he (I do this at least) is prepared to hold onto a play if it does not hit his fair number. Which like you said, is most of the time. But sometimes it does. Van knows $ management and Kelley formula etc - so he is not betting some amount that is improper given the edge - so if the fair price is never reached, you just let the bet ride.
Btw, how come you post so rarely these days- I like reading your thoughts/plays.
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Moo - I think he (I do this at least) is prepared to hold onto a play if it does not hit his fair number. Which like you said, is most of the time. But sometimes it does. Van knows $ management and Kelley formula etc - so he is not betting some amount that is improper given the edge - so if the fair price is never reached, you just let the bet ride.
Btw, how come you post so rarely these days- I like reading your thoughts/plays.
I am disappointed in your line shopping.
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