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Money Ball 6-5-2015

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Participants:

Posts: 141

oukurt12345

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2015

Posts: 146

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 12:46 PM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by chironelly:

Tampa is the only Anti Wagerline Consensus........So I will be on that...

SF and Oakland are >50% so I can't play them

#GoodLuck

#Waaahaaa

Like you matter. You are >50%

Jeffyg1135

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 193

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 12:50 PM ET #52

Key, you are the sole reason I (and probably a lot others) check this site on a regular basis. I went into crisis mode when you went on vacation but somehow kept my head above water without you. Now that you're back, I feel SO MUCH better about the picks I make. Riding with you until you retire from covers, just know that some people on this site, myself included, support you completely. Lets keep the money coming in brother, BOL

jthay3

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2014

Posts: 510

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:09 PM ET #53

Keep it up keys! Stay hot!

busterreed

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 51

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:12 PM ET #54

Thanks! Major appreciation.

BlackC

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2013

Posts: 741

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:14 PM ET #55

The moment you relize you already made these picks and start to learn from the big Key.
Nice picks bro keep it up, stay hot.

MrECapps

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 1097

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:15 PM ET #56

Surprising to see the A's still present value here after ripping a set from Detroit but I think there is too much focus on their still abysmal 23-33 overall record. I see them chugging along at Fenway today. Safe travels.

tgsportspicks

Prospect

Joined: May, 2015

Posts: 22

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:16 PM ET #57

A big thing I notice in your picks is quality starts but I don't see that in today's picks..

BettyMcWager

Banned

Joined: May, 2015

Posts: 1403

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:24 PM ET #58

Keep up the good work, Key, and good luck today

FunnyCide

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2013

Posts: 502

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:30 PM ET #59

COMING ALONG FOR THE RIDE,, good luck KEY
Ticket Number - 98243759

Straigh Bet(s)
Baseball - 903 San Francisco Giants -132 for Game Risking:396 to Win:300
Baseball - 921 Oakland Athletics -102 for Game Risking:306 to Win:300
Baseball - 927 Tampa Bay Rays -106 for Game Risking:318 to Win:300

bezerker44

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 67

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:30 PM ET #60

hope you had a great va-ca key. I just have to chime in. like ive stated before ive been following key for a long time and I would like put my 2 cents in. the reason key is a total class act is, last year when things didn't go as good as this year, key made no excuses, he stuck in there day in and day out, and boy did he have his haters, a mass of them. non the less he stuck to the grind never giving up on the season. so when a year like this year comes along, does key ramp it up on how great he is, NO, he just continues to do his thing. good or bad. he knows a losing streak might be just a day away, but he doesn't get emotional. he just does his thing.....and its great to see him reap the rewards to a great season so far......and to all of keys haters....good luck..ur not going to break this one no matter how hard u try...trust me hes been there and done that....great job key....keep it roll-in !!!!!!!!

KeyElement

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 23750

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:36 PM ET #61

Quote Originally Posted by tgsportspicks:

A big thing I notice in your picks is quality starts but I don't see that in today's picks..

Sometimes that is relevant and sometimes not, but I avoid it also because too many readers have assumed it is the MLB stat based on 6 innings, 3 or fewer earned runs. It is not, and should not be, because that is a 4.50 era and the current average era is around 3.93. When I quote a quality start record it is from my own database, where every start is a WorL and every start is quality or non-quality versus my standards. When I use it too many people are just confused. But, because you asked, today looks like this
Lincecum 20-16 / Williams 10-12
Kazmir 28-14 / Miley 22-21
Odorizzi 28-14 / 18-18
These numbers date back to 4-1-14 for the sake of a larger sample size.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn

KeyElement

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 23750

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:38 PM ET #62

Odorizzi 28-14 / Happ 18-18 Sorry

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn

mjm1012

Legend

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 41555

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:41 PM ET #63

ad1260

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 8158

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:52 PM ET #64

BOL tonight buddy

PlayWithThem

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 197

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:53 PM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

5-04

$306 Athletics +104, (Hahn/Greene) W

$306 Cubs +107, (Arrieta/Gonzalez) W

YTD 66-42, +$7,304.83 (+31.56% RoR)

5-05

$365 Giants -122, (Lincecum/Williams)

$365 Athletics +105, (Kazmir/Miley)

$365 Rays +100, (Odorizzi/Happ)

Giants: The only thing surprising here is the line, but that is a simple matter of bettors supporting the old Home Field Advantage for far more than it is worth. I have to point out that I LOVE Jerome Williams. He is a real Clydesdale at a career 6.84 innings per start for minimum wage and almost no success. There will always be job for a guy that eats innings for minimum wage, so someone always wants him. According to my numbers the Lincecum-Williams matchup is worth 48.5 cents of line value even before you grant the Giants a better offense.

Athletics: A little slimmer probability here but Kazmir definitely gives us an edge over Miley and the A’s are actually hitting lefties better than the BoSux right now. As I pointed out to someone yesterday, MLB is an ever changing landscape and no team is exactly the same team they were April 1^st, May 1^st, or even June 1^st. We have to catch performance and momentum changes and capitalize on them. Most of the public will use YTD stats to compute probability and that is one thing that gets them in trouble with Guido (the bookies enforcer).

Rays: I could be wrong of course but in my opinion Jake Odorizzi is still one of MLB’s most undervalued commodities. Part of that is the overall disrespect the Rays get and part of it is due to the (well deserved) respect Archer and the rest of the starting staff do get. Whatever the reason, Jake is a clearly superior chucker to J.A. Happ and has an offense behind him that is more productive versus lefty than Happ’s is versus righty.

BOL

Great writeups as always Key!

Castillo15

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2015

Posts: 153

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:55 PM ET #66

you are very good you will not take much still important what the hater always be talk talking.

# RESPECT

Digitalkarma

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 57266

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 1:57 PM ET #67

Mariners are -108 and Rays are -102 yet Rays are favored on the RL -1.5? Something tells me Rays win this one because of the RL. Mariners are in a slump

Sip on that plus money honey!

diztant

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2015

Posts: 140

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 2:06 PM ET #68

Way to go Key! Just started following you. Keep up the good work bro!

TheActuary

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 1258

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 2:07 PM ET #69

BOL Key and enjoy the rest of your vacation

tgsportspicks

Prospect

Joined: May, 2015

Posts: 22

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 2:09 PM ET #70

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Quote Originally Posted by tgsportspicks:

A big thing I notice in your picks is quality starts but I don't see that in today's picks..

Sometimes that is relevant and sometimes not, but I avoid it also because too many readers have assumed it is the MLB stat based on 6 innings, 3 or fewer earned runs. It is not, and should not be, because that is a 4.50 era and the current average era is around 3.93. When I quote a quality start record it is from my own database, where every start is a WorL and every start is quality or non-quality versus my standards. When I use it too many people are just confused. But, because you asked, today looks like thisLincecum 20-16 / Williams 10-12Kazmir 28-14 / Miley 22-21Odorizzi 28-14 / 18-18These numbers date back to 4-1-14 for the sake of a larger sample size.

Thanks for the quick response and great insight. BTW just want to let you know the only 2 cappers I follow and respect are you and BOB you guys put a lot of work into this. I really appreciate everything brother. Keep up the great run

bigwreck

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 184

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 2:17 PM ET #71

Good info

ChizzleEnt23

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2014

Posts: 1412

Posted: Jun. 5, 2015 - 2:23 PM ET #72

key!!! keep on doing well!!! your formula defenetly works and i enjoy ur insight each day, ive been trying to tell my buddy that MLB changes from week to week, month to month, with new hot teams and new cold team and ect. ie; A's are hot, tigers are cold for example, im on all 3 of ur plays aswell Gl tonight.....

thanks for ur efforts