YTD 35-38 (-1.67)
K's 2-12 (-10.08)
Yesterday 3-3 (-0.17)
Pending:
Tigers ML(+112) *1.50/1.68
Flaherty/Gray listed (posted last night)
Orioles 1st 3 ML(-115) *1.15/1.00
Orioles 1st 3 -0.5(+140) *.35/.49
Bradish/Lugo listed
I don't think Bradish is as bad as he has pitched. Coming off Tommy John's not long ago, he's gone threw some shit to start this year. Including declining velocity as the game gets deep for him. In his last outing, he was finally able to maintain velocity from start to finish.
This is a small sign of improvement to come imo. And against one of the worst hitting lineups in the majors is a good place to start.
Seth Lugo has been lights out this year. Him and Michael Wacha have found the fountain of youth in KC. He's been great.
The O's are quietly the 3rd best hitting teams vs ground ball pitchers this year, and Lugo is certainly one of those.
All the hitting splits favor the O's in the 1st 3 innings, some of them are tremendous. But Lugo clearly has been better than Bradish in these innings. The caveat. Bradish's era in the 1st 3 is 6.00. But his fip is 1.33, xfip 2.44. Lugo's era is 2.25, with a fip of 1.71, xfip 2.85. I'll trust the nerds on this and back the opposing bats.
Tough bet, in what should be a really low scoring game one would think. So why is the total 9.5? Why are the O's favored vs Lugo otr?
A lot of baseball doesn't make sense. You have to try your best to guess when the prevailing winds will change. Here's a shot I'm trying.
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