Mon (6/17): "The Good, the Bad, the Ugly"

Good:

MIA (+0.5) 1^st 5 Innings

Up 7-1 going to the top of the 9^th inning yesterday, and what happens?  A run scores and bases are loaded with 2 outs for STL.  No way am I taking MIA for the entire game for what should be a close game between two excellent young pitchers – it will probably come down to ARI’s 7^th best team ERA in the 7+ innings vs. MIA’s 7^th worst team ERA in the 7+ innings.  All 3 of Turner’s starts have been quality starts.  Corbin won’t go undefeated this season, and this could very well be a trap game for ARI coming home after a disappointing series vs. SD.    

PIT (+110)

CIN only hit for .182 AVG vs. Liriano in their last meeting and only scored 1 ER.  Leake and his bullpen are vulnerable at home with just a 1-2 record in 6 HOME starts.  Although CIN won the last match-up, PIT actually had more hits and a .318 BAA vs. Leake.  PIT will be riding the momentum from yesterday’s huge win over Greinke and LAD. 

Bad:  Fading Haren (WAS), Tepesch (TEX)

PHI (-120) 1^st 5 Innings

Haren is 0-3 in 5 career starts vs. PHI with a 5.79 ERA, 1 HR allowed/3 IP.  Haren’s AWAY stats mirror his stats vs. PHI, except opponents hit 40 points better with a .290 BAA.  Haren is just 1-6 on the road, and WAS has not won a Haren start since May 9 (6 starts ago).  Lannan is just coming back from the DL, but his stats were decent in his two rehab starts in the minors (2.45 ERA).  As demonstrated yesterday when Hamels held COL to just 1-0 until the 7^th inning, PHI has the 5^th worst team ERA in the MLB in the 7+ innings (4.11 ERA), so I refuse to take them past the 5^th inning. 

OAK (+100)

Baseball Tonight described this game as a coming-out party for the top 2 candidates for AL Rookie of the Year (Straily vs. Tepesch).  Well, if that is the case then in my opinion, Straily is your AL Rookie of the Year.  TEX has lost 7 of Tepesch’s last 8 starts, while OAK has won 8 of Straily’s last 10 starts.  Tepesch has an 8.25 ERA in his last 2 starts, and now he will be facing one of the hottest offenses in baseball.  TEX bats have been cold in this homestand (1.33 runs/game in their last 6 HOME games).  In Straily’s last 2 losses, opponents have scored 6 runs.  Straily held TEX to just 2 hits and 0 runs in the last meeting.

Ugly:  Fading Carrasco (CLE), J. Johnson (TOR)

KC (-129) [KC (-1.5) if ML surpasses a price of -140]

Am I reading this right?  Carrasco has a 15.28 ERA vs. Shields and KC is only a (-129) favorite?  Carrasco has a career 6.33 ERA / .321 BAA vs. KC. 

COL (+130)

Yes, Johnson does have an excellent stat line vs. COL in 5 career starts (1.67 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, .180 BAA).  But Johnson is still yet to win a decision in 6 starts this year.  TOR has lost 5 of Johnson’s 6 starts.  I will continue to fade Johnson until he earns my respect.

“Trouble with the Curve” (O/U): 

OAK/TEX U9.5

The total has been UNDER 9.5 in Tepesch’s last 5 starts and Straily’s last 8 starts. 

MIA/ARI U8

Pitcher’s duel = few runs.

Why don't you post a year to date record? Most cappers can make any pick sound good. It's the number of the record and winning in the long run that makes you good to peeps.

KC, COL +1.5, OAK/TX U9.5