MLB Underdog System

keep at it and good luck

I am going to post weekly and monthly totals here. Weeks will end on Saturday and begin on Sunday.
Record for past week: 14 wins-16 losses.
Began at 100 units. Now at 100.30 units.

Saturday went 3-2
Increased units from 98.48 units to 100.30 units

Sunday plays
(Please read caution note in post #24)
There are seven plays for Sunday.
They are
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Seattle Mariners
6. St. Louis/Milwaukee Under 8.5
7. Minnesota/Chicago White Sox Under 9.5

Good Luck all!!! 

How do O/U work into your system? If I missed something, I apologize. I thought it was based on underdogs and pitchers outside the Top 20...

Forgot to post odds
Dodgers +105
Royals +120
Athletics +115
Cubs +103
Mariners +135
I am using Bodogs lines now. The Unders are not posted yet but both pitchers were in the top 20 pitchers for all of last season. So the two games go into the system as I am taking unders when two top 20 pitchers face each other.

Good Luck!!

Tical,
I was posting the same time you were, I think. Just saw your question.
I think I answered it. I do not use overs, only unders when two pitchers are facing each other who are top 20 pitchers.
If there is a top 20 pitcher facing an underdog team I do not pick that game. Up until May I am using who were in the top 20 at the finish of last season from each league.
Hopefully that answered your question.
Bruce

One last thought.
If a top 20 pitcher is on an underdog team who is facing a pitcher not in the top 20 whose team is favored. That team is a pick as well.
Only when two top 20 pitchers face each other do I make it an under. It is not a game chosen on the moneyline.
Thanks all for your interest.
Good Luck Sunday!!!
Bruce

Good day all,
It has been a rough day so far today, with San Francisco finishing up the day leading 5-2 in the bottom of the 8th. If this lead continues we will be at 1-6 for the day. Which is a good demonstration of why I need to wait until May for the MLB to really get rolling. This system right now is being paper only.

With that being said, I am going to continue with the goal of doing this the whole season and see how the system turns out.

In this young season these are the top 20 pitchers for this past week. In the methodology of this system it is important to keep up with who these pitchers are. My plan is to list them each week.

American League Top 20 Pitchers:
1. John Lackey, Red Sox
2. C. J. Wilson
3. Dana Eveland
4. Luke Hochevar
5. Max Scherzer
6. Brett Anderson
7. Matt Garza
8. Carl Pavano
9. Colby Lewis
10. Ricky Romero
11. Andy Pettitte
12. Brian Bannister
13. John Danks
14. Matt Harrison
15. David Huff
16. Jeremy Bonderman
17. Justin Masterson
18. Kevin Millwood
19. Mark Buehrle
20. Scott Feldman

National League Top 20 Pitchers:
1. Livan Hernandez, Nationals
2. Tom Gorzelanny, Cubs
3. Barry Zito, Giants
4. Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies
5. Chris Young, Padres
6. Tim Stauffer, Padres
7. J. A. Happ, Phillies
8. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
9. Randy Wells, Cubs
10. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
11. Roy Halladay, Phillies
12. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
13. Tim Lincecum, Giants
14. Brad Penny, Cardinals
15. Mike Leake, Reds
16. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
17. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
18. Rodrigo Lopez, Diamondbacks
19. Carlos Silva, Cubs
20. Jaime Garcia, Cardinals

As I am sure you know this is not a solid list yet. I am still going to use the pitchers who were in the top 20 at the end of last year. I will also give picks using the current top 20 pitchers. It will be interesting at how the results compare.

I will be back later with picks for tomorrow.

Good Luck all!!! 

Bruce

Starting Units System 1 Last Years top 20 pitchers:
100 Units
Currently at 94.24 Units
Overall loss of 5.76 Units

Monday Games with System 1
Milwaukee
Oakland
Reds
Blue Jays
No under totals Monday

Starting New Series Using Current Top 20 Pitchers
Starting Units same as system 1 at present time = 94.24 Units.

Monday Games with System 2
Minnesota
Oakland
Cincinnati
Toronto
No under totals on Monday

Once again this is on paper and I am still trying to see what is going to work best. Putting this to work May 1st.

Good Luck all!!! 

.

Had a mixed outcome today. Once again I am using 2 systems and for now these are on paper. System 1 is using the top 20 pitchers from last year and system 2 is using the current top 20 pitchers. Look at earlier posts to see how the system works.

System 1 started at 100 units and currently stands at 94.74 units
Went 2-2 today.
Daily gain of .50 units

System 2 started at 94.24 units.
This system went 3-1 today
Daily gain of 3.24 units.

Here are the picks for both systems on Monday;

System 1 plays with Last year top 20 pitchers

Kansas City Royals +125, Total is 10.74

Chicago White Sox Even, Total is 9

Cincinnati Reds Even, Total is 7.95

New York Mets +125, Total is 7.96

System 2 Plays with current top 20 pitchers

Kansas City Royals +125, Total is 10.74

Baltimore Orioles Even, Total is 7.78

Cincinnati Reds Even, Total is 7.95

New York Mets +125, Total is 7.96

I have software that calculates totals. The totals stated were the totals predicted by the software. I am still debating these as well and testing to see how they work out.

Well that's enough for today.

Good luck all!!! 

Good day everyone.
Well still working on the underdog system and how I am going to play it
Both systems went 1-3 yesterday. When I added the totals in they went 4-4

System 1 Last years top 20 pitchers
Starting Units =100
Currently at 92.24
Down 7.76 Units

System 2 Current top 20 Pitchers
Starting Units 94.24 Units
Currently at 94.98 Units
Gain of .54 Units

Here are the plays for Wednesday. Once again I am adding totals to these systems.

System 1 last years top 20 pitchers

• Cincinnati Reds +105, Cin/Fla  Over 9

• San Diego Padres +125, SanD/Atl  Under 7

System 2 current top 20 pitchers

Milwaukee +125, Milw/ChiCubs  UNDER 9

San Diego +125, SanDiego/Atl  Under 7

With the totals being added it is going to be interesting to see the results.Once again this is on paper and will start up in May.

Good luck all !!!  

Word of advice. Make a ranking list of top pitchers at the beginning (Sagarin wasn't a bad idea) and stick to that list. Make MINOR adjustments only based on injuries and if a pitcher has flat out lost it. Or if someone really shines for an extended period of time (and has some sort of track record to back it up...even if it's in the minors)...you can move him onto the list.

Don't update it constantly. No way should Tim Stauffer ever be sniffing a top 20 list. Statistics say that a pitcher's future statistics are more in line with career performance rather than a tiny sample size like a week, two weeks, or even half a season. Obviously, cases such as an aging pitcher and a rookie learning the ropes could impact that, but on a whole, trust large sample sizes. Always.

BOL to you on this. It definitely has serious potential.

I am rethinking this a little bit and doing some studying on a more winning strategy.May take a couple of days but I have something in mind. I am looking at top pitchers over the past three years and win their team comes up in an underdog role using those as picks.

That is what is nice about doing this on paper, I can look at different strategies.

No wins today and all losses. Will get back when have plan together.

Good luck all!!!

Hey all,

I have continued to work on this. Needed to look at it more in depth and have been doing well with it. I have narrowed down my plays and have done some adjusting with the pitchers.

I am going to start posting again. Have had mixed results but mostly positive.

Here are the plays for Sunday:

Moneyline on

Arizona

New York Mets

Los Angeles Angels

Under

St. Louis/San Francisco Under 7.5

Good Luck!!!

gonna tail sunday picks and see how u do
GL

good job so far, when will you post mondays picks?

Hey all, that was a good day today. I went 4-0 with my picks on the day. There aren't as many games on Monday so had fewer choices. The possible picks that I had are all facing top pitchers. Halladay, Beckett, and Haren are pitching against my picks so have no moneyline picks for Monday.

There is however on under that I am going to play on. The sportsbook that I use does not have an under posted yet for this game but when it does it will be the choice for today.

Under

Washington/Chicago Cubs

Thanks for your encouragement. Once again as I stated earlier in these posts use caution as this is still in the beginning stages of the season.

Good luck to all of you.

 

I 've been using this same system the past few weeks. Right now it hits real good on Sat.,Sun., and Mon. Tue. thru fri. it's a good fade system, Now that might change but for now thats the way i've been playing it and it's been pretty profitable. The last two monday's it's 8-1. 

forgot to mention my first day was 4/12/2010 using this system. I also use this years top sp rankings and check it every week to see if any changes were made.I see you seperated it by league, I combined both leagues. I googled top 20 sp for 2010 and got this.

1 Tim lincecum-Giants

2 Zack Greinke-Royals

3 C.C. Savbathia-yanks

4 Johan Santana-Mets

5 Felix Hernandez-mariners

6 Roy Halladay-Phillies

7 Dan Haren-Dbacks

8 Justin Verlander-Tigers

9 Jon Lester-Red sox

10 Chris Carpenter-card's

11 Cliff Lee-Mariners

12 Josh Beckett-Red Sox

13 Adam Wainwright-Card's

14 Yovani Galardo-Brewers

15 Jake Peavy-White sox

16 Ubaldo Jimenez-Rockies

17 Clayton Kershaw-Dodgers

18 Matt Cain-Giants

19 Cole Hamels-Phillies

20 Javier Vasquez-Yanks

Well another good day. Went 1-0 on the under in Washington-Cubs game. I took a chance yesterday and said the under on this game based on the performances of the pitchers involved thus far. The under at most books was 8 with a couple at 9. The game went into extra innings as well.

Knockhouse you are right there are some days that have been good and some down days. I added a couple of filters to my picks for each day. Instead of using all of the unders, not going over +150 towards +200, I am just using those that are at home. They can be between Even and +150. I also filter out those teams that are below .450 winning percentage.

As far as the pitchers are concerned I am keeping close track with Sagarins ratings. I went back and took the top pitchers using ESPN sortable standings for the past three years. If they were listed in at least two out of the past three years I kept them. As far as Sagarin is concerned it is a good way to keep track of who is doing well now.

I don't have as many plays as you may have knockhouse in my filters that I have placed onto this method. But I feel more comfortable with what I do have.

The plays for Tuesday are :

San Francisco Giants

Toronto Blue Jays

Unders

Pitching Matchups

LA Dodgers/NY Mets Under - Kuroda 2.18/Santana 2.59 (a short note on this game. It was postponed on Monday and it was not posted in my book yet. If Kuroda and Santana are pitching I will only play it. If not there is no Under play here.)

Arizona/Colorado Under - Jackson 3.81/Jimenez 0.95

Thats it for Tuesday.

Good Luck all!!!

 

Well another good day. Went 1-0 on the under in Washington-Cubs game. I took a chance yesterday and said the under on this game based on the performances of the pitchers involved thus far. The under at most books was 8 with a couple at 9. The game went into extra innings as well.

Knockhouse you are right there are some days that have been good and some down days. I added a couple of filters to my picks for each day. Instead of using all of the unders, not going over +150 towards +200, I am just using those that are at home. They can be between Even and +150. I also filter out those teams that are below .450 winning percentage.

As far as the pitchers are concerned I am keeping close track with Sagarins ratings. I went back and took the top pitchers using ESPN sortable standings for the past three years. If they were listed in at least two out of the past three years I kept them. As far as Sagarin is concerned it is a good way to keep track of who is doing well now.

I don't have as many plays as you may have knockhouse in my filters that I have placed onto this method. But I feel more comfortable with what I do have.

The plays for Tuesday are :

San Francisco Giants

Toronto Blue Jays

Unders

Pitching Matchups

LA Dodgers/NY Mets Under - Kuroda 2.18/Santana 2.59 (a short note on this game. It was postponed on Monday and it was not posted in my book yet. If Kuroda and Santana are pitching I will only play it. If not there is no Under play here.)

Arizona/Colorado Under - Jackson 3.81/Jimenez 0.95

Thats it for Tuesday.

Good Luck all!!!

 

Sorry about that, pushed the submit button one to many times. Does anybody know if there is some way to edit or remove these posts when this happens. Can we edit our own posts? Oh well, hey I am still a newby here so still learning.

Take Care,

BruceM5

Keep it up. Great post

Well went 2-2 on the day. It is nice to see that I am human and can't win everything. I have been on quite a roll for the past few days. What was good about Tuesdays games is that I was able to still make a profit even though I went 2-2.

I have someone that I have been corresponding with and he told me an interesting fact that when teams are listed at a total of 9.5 that they go over at a greater than 55% rate. I am going to incorporate that into my picks and see how they do. So if they are listed at 9.5 then I will have that as a play on those games as well. Just an interesting twist to this underdog system. I will only be going over on totals of 9.5. If it is 10 or 11 then no play on it. Lets see how this turns out.

Wednesday plays

There are no Under totals for the day as the pitching matchups don't line up to make an under pick.

The Underdog pick for Wednesday is

Toronto

Over picks for the day at 9.5

Seattle/Kansas City

Pittsburgh/Milwaukee

Good Luck All!!!