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MLB picks, Monday, April 12, 2010

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Posts: 34
 
Legend
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Posted: #26
skin -- you saying you are laying the -215 with the Cards today?
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by skinfan2121:

value to me would be +250 + 260 for an 0-6 team against an outmatched line up and pitcher


Why is that value?
 
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Posted: #28

I'LL BE PLAYING THE RUN LINE -1.5. ASTROS AVERAGE 2.2 RUNS A GAME RIGHT NOW. AND MOST OF THE THOSE CAME OFF MOYER. WANDY PITCHED AGAINST A WEAKER LINE-UP (GIANTS) FIRST GAME AND WENT 6, BUT GAVE UP 4 BBS AND 7 HITS. CARDS WILL CAPITLIZE UNLIKE THE GIANTS.

YEAH ASTROS AREN'T GONNA GO DEFEATED ALL YEAR, BUT I THINK THERE IS A BETTER SPOT TO BACK THEM, NOT HERE FOR ME

 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by JBrilman:



Why is that value?

I THROW VALUE AND PRICE OUT THE WINDOW WHEN YOU ARE COMPLETELY OUTMATCHED. IF ASTROS WERE AT +160 ISH. WOULD YOU STILL BET THEM?

 
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Posted: #30

By any means, I am not saying that Houston has a better offense than the Cards, but I do have to say that the numbers might be a little misleading, since the Stros have faced tougher pitchers, so far. So, taking Wandy +180 against a lunatic squad like the Cards might be a little more logical than most might think... JMHO...

 
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Posted: #31
BTW, kapono, It would be hard for me to take the Nats in any variable form of betting, even RL+1.5, especially with one of their most productive players out in Zimmerman, but I can see a low-scoring game, which would certainly favor a +RL...
 
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Posted: #32

1. Pittsburgh Pirates ML +162, 1 to win 1.62
2. San Diego Padres ML +144, 1 to win 1.44
3. Washington Nationals ML +243, 2 to win 4.86
4. Houston Astros ML +195, 1 to win 1.95

0-2, down 3 units to start the day.



That's what happens playing big dogs sometimes! Thought the Nats had a chance when they went up 4-0 only to give up 7 in a row. Serves me right for betting on the Nats, I suppose.

Really unhappy that Ohlendorf was scratched, my Pittsburgh play is now pretty much dead in my mind. Could be a 0-4 day. Oh well. That's why its good to have money management, right? Even if I get swept today, it's only -5 units and I'll still be up 6.3 units for the year.
 
Legend
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Posted: #33
With Ohlendorf out, leaning the OVER in the San Francisco game. I wouldn't be shocked to see Pittsburgh put up at least 4 runs this game on Zito.
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #34
1. Pittsburgh Pirates ML +162, 1 to win 1.62
2. San Diego Padres ML +144, 1 to win 1.44
3. Washington Nationals ML +243, 2 to win 4.86
4. Houston Astros ML +195, 1 to win 1.95

1-3 for -2.56 units.

I actually ended up hedging my Pirates play once I saw Ohlendorf was scratched by taking San Francisco RL -1.5 as well as the over 8.5, so my bankroll actually only lost like half a unit (though those plays weren't posted so they don't go on the record.)

YTD: 13-8, +8.74 units
ML Favorites: 2-2, -0.03 units
ML Dogs: 6-5, +4.52 units
RL: 3-1, +2.2 units
Totals: 2-0, +2.05 units
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