Posted:
#501
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MLB Line Experiment
Posted:
#507
Houstonhitter and kribag,
Different sportsbooks are all going to have different opening lines on games.
I use one site and stick to it and base everything off of the opening lines on that. If you jump from site to site you might not get any pairings or the correct ones but I don't only go off of the pairings from this one site, I use the pairings but also add in the stats I have been keeping on these opening lines as well.
The site I use had Cincy, Colorado, Arizona, Chicago White Sox and Seattle all with the same line and also had the Cubs within 1 point of those.
This is becoming both an art and a science at the same time to be able to do it lol .
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Posted:
#509
Hi Emerald - I see what you are doing with the opening lines, but don't understand exactly how you establish the pairings. Would you please explain how you pair the teams with the same lines? Are the pairings based on both the opening line and the closing line? If so, what is the trend (line moving up or line moving down) that make the game a bet for you?
Cheers and thanks in advance 
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Posted:
#510
Well Looks like Padres are probably done.
My bad on that pick. When you have 5 or 6 lines all the same and you still have a number of games going on and you aren't sure which way the first ones will go it is better to lay off of them.
Hopefully Mariners will win for us.
Already have a play for the ESPN night game.
Detroit/NY Yankess was paired up with LA Dodgers/SF game.
NY Yankees and LA Dodgers both opened up at -160 favorites.
Detroit won so LA Dodgers are a play on the moneyline. Also based on the line movement and my records in this spot it confirms that the Dodgers should win tonight.
Also Toronto and Cleveland both opened as -125 . We couldn't play those games because they started at the same time.
If you notice Cleveland the favorite won and then Baltimore the underdog won as well. So opposites came in again.
Also notice that one game went way under and the other went way over. If your book takes live ingame wagering if you see two games going at the same time and you notice one of them go over in the first or 2nd inning you can take the other game to go under in live wagering. Just another way to do it.
It is better when you only have 2 or 3 opening lines the same compared to 5 or 6 like what happened on these games this morning. So hopefully we can get a split on them and then we can win the ESPN Sunday night game.
No more playing games when there are 5 or 6 same lines and games are still going on without knowing who is going to win before the next set of games start.
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Posted:
#511
Quote Originally Posted by RicoCortez:
Hi Emerald - I see what you are doing with the opening lines, but don't understand exactly how you establish the pairings. Would you please explain how you pair the teams with the same lines? Are the pairings based on both the opening line and the closing line? If so, what is the trend (line moving up or line moving down) that make the game a bet for you?
Cheers and thanks in advance
Hey Rico,
The teams are paired by the opening lines. I just use my own stats and records I have been keeping for the month of June to confirm plays.
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Posted:
#513
Alright guys,
Sorry about the afternoon picks.
Learned today not to play games when you have 4 or 5 all of the same line and games still going before others start. So will not do that anymore.
Tonight's play
is the LA Dodgers moneyline. I know its juicy but they should win . They were only paired up with one other game and the stats back up their spot.
So lets hope Dodgers win for us and we will finish 2-2 for the day and make sure we pick better games tomorrow by being more picky and not jumping the gun.
Good luck!
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Posted:
#516
Quote Originally Posted by Bayarea5100:
Leaning over 8 on Tor vs Rays game.
So far I'm doing fairly well 8-2 last 5 day. I do give out picks daily so shoot me a text (510)7559646. (Fee)
Hope everyone is having a good season.
Leaning over 8 on Tor vs Rays game.
So far I'm doing fairly well 8-2 last 5 day. I do give out picks daily so shoot me a text (510)7559646. (Fee)
Hope everyone is having a good season.
Are you that real john anthony guy? Can't wait to text and pay that fee()()()()()()))))((((( here's my lean lean my pole inside the hole!!!!!
WWG1WGA NCSWIC
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Posted:
#519
Quote Originally Posted by kribag:
emerald, do you just look at the opening and closing lines or do you also track the movement?
emerald, do you just look at the opening and closing lines or do you also track the movement?
I've been trying to figure it out myself.
From what i gather it works like this.
1. Copy down the lines from the prior evening(opening lines)
2. Track which way the lines move
3. This is where I get lost, they either check and see how a line did earlier in the day and based on the result play a later game or compare to how a particular line did lets say -119 games are 5-0 on the year then they play that.
Again this is probably way off but that is what I gathered. Clearly I'm still scratching my head here 
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Posted:
#521
Here are two plays I am playing so far.
Chicago Cubs +1.5 +102 runline . Teams in this spot are 5-0 with the +1.5 runline in the month of June.
Philadelphia +1.5 +117 runline. Anytime you see this big of a favorite like the Yankee's are getting over -250 and up you automatically want to play the underdog on the runline. They cover a lot more than they don't and you are usually getting plus money.
Will be maybe one more play tonight. Have to watch and see how the Cleveland / Detroit game is going and then we might have a play on the Chicago White Sox/ Minnesota game.
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Posted:
#522
Quote Originally Posted by kribag:
CLE and TB look like good plays, especially these two teams being at home
CLE and TB look like good plays, especially these two teams being at home
Good luck if you play them. I am watching that Cleveland game to see how it starts to play out . Both Cleveland and Minnesota opened as -140 favorites at the site I watch to see about going opposite.
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Posted:
#524
Quote Originally Posted by kribag:
emerald, I just made some calculations and to me it seems that cleveland and chicago white sox should be winners tonight
emerald, I just made some calculations and to me it seems that cleveland and chicago white sox should be winners tonight
Hey kribag,
you could be right and good luck if you play it. I am watching the line closely and might have a play on it but I need to wait about 15 more minutes to see.
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