Quote Originally Posted by itsonnow1:
I have nothing to do with this thread or the idea behind it...
However, I can tell you one thing. In all my years of being alive, around professionals, people with money, and anyone who really puts in any hard work at being a true "intellectual"....the way you are reacting here? Leads one to believe you are truly someone completely different from what you are trying to convince people you are.
The guy did not say anything personal, except make some REAL statements about sports betting. Yet you took it personal and responded in a very childish, personal manor. I'm not even sure high schoolers are talking to each other that way anymore.
Fact of the matter is this...line movements mean absolutely nothing long term. They are no different than any other random trend. I can say "Every time there is a half moon, and this particular team is playing at home, at this time of the day, this team wins". And that trend can go on for a long time. Does that mean it's something that should be banked on long term? No. All you're doing is enjoying a short term trend in hitting the games that are being represented poorly, incorrectly, or accurately, by the public and sharp action (money).
The only thing the line indicates is public perception and money being wagered, which then moves the line, to encourage more action on the opposite side to even things out. How any of that indicates the outcomes of the game, or, how any of you can see how that indicates the outcome of the game is ......weird,....to say the least.
I'm not saying that weird is wrong....I'm simply saying that, you are being convinced by short term trends. And short term can last an entire season....this is why bookies are around and are wealthy. Some trends can even last for 4-5 years before the deviation finally shows its ugly face and goes the complete opposite way. If your system is based on a "trend".....then it will even out. No matter how successful it is doing now, or the next few seasons.
You gotta wonder why all these "hot handicappers", are selling their picks as covers experts and going "tout". They do this because it is win win for them to SELL the picks. And let someone ELSE deal with the ups and downs of sports betting, while they make their "guaranteed money" from selling the picks, and subscriptions, ......and all they have to do is maintain their "55%-60%" supposed "professional win rates". An idiot, with basic knowledge of form can pick 55-60% long term. However, most will fail due to POOR money management, and poor dedication long term.
The bookies are not giving "signals". They don't know the outcome. They only know the projected value of the team, the projected public perception,.... until the money starts coming in...which will move the line accordingly. I can promise you.....the line and the outcome are in no where directly connected. Even if it works 100 times.
That's like assuming, that if a person wins 23 hands of baccarat...they've figured something out. Or if a person turns $800 into $50k playing craps (using a system), they've figured something out.
Say dude, NICE WRITE-UP. Problem is, 97% of the people on this site won't understand it. I'm glad I'm part of that 3%. You hit it exactly on it's head. These young guys think they know everything about everything to say it widely. Their penis gets hard when the wind blows towards them. Bottom line, let's let these young guys live a little and they will slowly understand how gambling works. They'll understand that NO ONE understands it. These guys have no idea what, "let's let" means. They will try to use it in a sentence themselves tomorrow and will screw it up. Anyway, GL to you dude.
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