MLB betting for the week of April 13th - 19th.

Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane:

Friday, April 17th - Pitchers' #'s & Ratings:

 

Anthony Reyes B-/C+ is 1-0 (6.00 ERA) on the season. He has made 7 career starts for the Indians, posting a 3-1 (2.45 ERA) record.
Joba Chamberlain B- is 0-1 (4.50 ERA) against the Indians and held a 3-1 (2.18 ERA) record in the old Yankee Stadium.

 

P.J. Walters C+ is making his Major League debut.
Carlos Zambrano C- is 9-6 (3.25 ERA) against the Cardinals and is 44-34 (3.59 ERA) pitching in Wrigley Field.

 

Jair Jurrjens C+ is 1-1 (4.35 ERA) against the Pirates and is 0-1 (5.40 ERA) pitching in PNC Park.
Paul Maholm C- is 0-1 (2.77 ERA) against the Braves and is 19-11 (3.57 ERA) pitching in PNC Park.

 

Chris Young C+ is 2-1 (1.96 ERA) agains the Phillies and is 1-1 (3.18 ERA) pitching in Citizens Bank Park.
Cole Hamels B- is 2-1 (2.40 ERA) against the Padres and is 20-12 (3.29 ERA) pitching in Citizens Bank Park.

 

Ricky Nolasco C+ is 6-1 (4.10 ERA) against the Nationals and is 1-0 (1.50 ERA) pitching in Nationals Park.
John Lannan F-/G+ is 0-1 (18.00 ERA) against the Marlins and is 4-9 (4.87 ERA) pitching in Nationals Park.

 

Josh Outman C/C- have never faced the Blue Jays. He is 0-0 w/a 6.23 ERA for the season.
David Purcey C- have never faced the Athletics. He is 0-1 w/a 4.63 ERA for the season. He is 2-2 (5.19 ERA) pitching in Rogers Centre.

 

Jeremy Guthrie B-/C+ is 1-2 (3.43 ERA) against the Red Sox and is 0-1 (3.93 ERA) pitching in Fenway Park.
Brad Penny C have never faced the Orioles. He is 1-0 w/a 4.50 ERA on the season.

 

Dave Bush C is 2-1 (6.75 ERA) against the Mets but never pitched against them at Shea Stadium.
Livan Hernandez B+ is 7-6 (3.77 ERA) against the Brewers.

 

Bartolo Colon A-/B+ is 9-2 (3.41 ERA) against the Rays and is 3-1 (3.00 ERA) pitching in Tropicana Field.
James Shields B is 0-1 (4.50 ERA) against the White Sox and is 19-8 (3.25 ERA) pitching in Tropicana Field.

 

Gil Meche B-/C+ is 4-9 (6.32 ERA) against the Rangers and is 2-6 (8.10 ERA) pitching in Arlington.
Matt Harrison C/C- is 1-0 (1.35 ERA) against the Royals and is 5-2 (5.94 ERA) pitching in Arlington.

Note: Notice the high home ERA for Matt Harrison. But why the nice record in Rangers Ballpark? He averaged 8.37 run support per game in 2008 and the Rangers were 10-5 in those 2008 starts.

 

Johnny Cueto B is 0-3 (7.84 ERA) against the Astros and is 0-2 (10.38 ERA) pitching in Minute Maid Park.
Roy Oswalt B- is 23-1 (2.47 ERA) against the Reds and is 72-23 (2.69 ERA) pitching in Minute Maid Park.

 

Dustin Moseley B/B- have never started a game against the Twins. He is 0-0 w/a 5.40 ERA against them.
Nick Blackburn B- is 0-2 (3.09 ERA) against the Angels and hold a nice record of 8-3 w/a 3.17 ERA in the Metrodome.

 

Jorge De La Rosa B+/B is 0-3 (8.14 ERA) against the Dodgers and is 0-1 (3.27 ERA) pitching in Dodgers Stadium.
Randy Wolf C/C- is 4-2 (4.50 ERA) against the Rockies.

 

Justin Verlander A-/B+ is 6-1 (2.91 ERA) against the Mariners and is 3-1 (3.76 ERA) pitching in Safeco Field.
Felix Hernandez B-/C+ is 3-2 (2.97 ERA) against the Tigers and is 20-16 (3.54 ERA) pitching in Safeco Field.

 

Dan Haren C- is 6-4 (2.99 ERA) against the Giants and is 2-2 (3.72 ERA) pitching in AT&T Park.
Jonathan Sanchez B- is 1-5 (7.98 ERA) against the Diamondbacks and is 4-8 (4.95 ERA) pitching in AT&T Park.

 

Pitchers to fade for Friday:

 

If you're backing John Lannan or Gil Meche tomorrow, consider yourself insane. K? K.

 

Jair Jurrjens
John Lannan
Gil Meche

Brad Penny
Randy Wolf

 

Possible winners/values for Friday, leans, just leans:

 

Baltimore Orioles +138
Pittsburgh Pirates +107
Florida Marlins -126
Philadelphia Phillies -159 (listed: Cole Hamels)
LA Angels +108
Colorado Rockies +140
Detroit Tigers +112

This is Great  Thanks for all the work!!

indiobear - Keep in mind that i'm only using the grades/ratings to filter games i'm looking to bet on.

Example: Carlos Zambrano with a C- rating is an automatic pass. This means you could either take the value in the Cardinals today or pass betting on the Cubs as it could be an "unlucky" day for Zambrano. But since we have an unknown in Walters, the whole game is a pass.

Bad grades for both starters also equate to high scoring games. But since i'm not that good at gauging totals, i don't make many plays on totals.

Another example: I'm actually making a 3 unit (very strong) play on the Rangers today despite the bad grade/rating for Matt Harrison. So, as you can see, the grades are not an overall process in my handicapping regimen. It helps me decide which games to play and which one to pass. But after studying Meche's stats against the Rangers and Matt Harrison's 2008 record i couldn't come to the conclusion that Gil Meche is just very "unlucky" when it comes to facing the Rangers.

Harrison is not a good pitcher by any stretch. But pitching behind a powerful offense puts him in very good standings in the W column.

I'll be back later to post 2 more games. Lots of value on the Rockies as Randy Wolf is due for a shelling. Also like the Tigers tonight.

I am glad for this paragraph, as I am already on over 10.5 for the rangers game (looks like people are betting on the under), and I am on the over 9 for the dodgers/rockies game.....

HappyKane, Great stuff, appreciate the work!

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In the words of a wiseman:  "There are 2 things in life that are 'due': pregnant women and bill payments.  Nothing else is 'due'."

I can't resist a juicy trend like that!

Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane:

dcchan4 - Chris Young could be a different pitcher on the road than he is at PETCO.

 

So, i'm going to lay off the Padres for Friday.

 

Plus, Cole is the "shorter' name.

dont go agaist the trend!

Bluefin - Waiting for the 1st 5 Inning lines @ 5Dimes.

dcchan4 - Edwin versus Erik for the "Weird Trend" today. 

The grades have nothing to do with the pitchers' previous performances or records. Its an indication of how they might perform in the matchup.

I use it to filter which games i should further handicap or stay away from, and to find pitchers that might be worth fading or backing.

For example, Carlos Zambrano is an A-rated pitcher for his career; but that doesn't mean he'll have bad days. He got a grade of C- yesterday and deservedly so because he wasn't as sharp as usual.

WussieMan - Matt Harrison did have a grade of C/C- yesterday. My mistake was going too big on Texas knowing how bad he can be. Congrats on the KC win.