#1 Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers Under 6.5 +100
pitching matchup:
J. Cueto (Reds) vs. Z. Greinke (Brewers)
I looked very hard into this and I kept coming back to the conclusion that this will be a low scoring game. Both pitchers have been fantastic this year. Greinke has a great xFIP of 2.74, 2.17 FIP and that's not even as good as his numbers from last year, which suggests he will continue to imrpove as the season moves along. On the other side, Johnny Cueto has been great going 4-0. His boxscore stats are bit a decieving as his strand rate is a very high 90.3%. His xFIP is a mediocre 3.95, but his first strike rate is a much improved 63.3% and his walk rate is down to 4.2% this year. Both pitchers have done well against the opposing lineups.
In addition, the brewers are missing braun this game, just adding to the brewers recent hitting problems (last game being the exception). The offensive stats for each team are not that great either. I mentioned earlier that Cueto has had a high strand rate and might regress toward the league average, but the brewers are one of the worst teams with runners in scoring position, ranked 25th in the MLB. Cincinnati is even worse, ranked 26th in the league. Milwaukee is also ranked 27th vs right handed pitchers and cincinnati is ranked 25th against righties.
The Reds have one of the best bullpens in the league and I checked the brewers numbers against each relief pitcher...their 2 worst relief pitchers pitched last night, so I except the better relief pitchers for the Reds to play tonight. In addition, the closer for the brewers is 1 save away to tie brad lidge for 4th all time in saves. The brewers #1 relief pitcher is Francisco Rodriguez. He hasn't pitched that well, but his numbers are bound to improve- his career numbers are much better than what he's shown early this season. I believe it just to be an early season slump.
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1 unit plays: 7-7-1 -.96 units
3 unit plays: 2-0-0 +6 units
#1 Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers Under 6.5 +100
pitching matchup:
J. Cueto (Reds) vs. Z. Greinke (Brewers)
I looked very hard into this and I kept coming back to the conclusion that this will be a low scoring game. Both pitchers have been fantastic this year. Greinke has a great xFIP of 2.74, 2.17 FIP and that's not even as good as his numbers from last year, which suggests he will continue to imrpove as the season moves along. On the other side, Johnny Cueto has been great going 4-0. His boxscore stats are bit a decieving as his strand rate is a very high 90.3%. His xFIP is a mediocre 3.95, but his first strike rate is a much improved 63.3% and his walk rate is down to 4.2% this year. Both pitchers have done well against the opposing lineups.
In addition, the brewers are missing braun this game, just adding to the brewers recent hitting problems (last game being the exception). The offensive stats for each team are not that great either. I mentioned earlier that Cueto has had a high strand rate and might regress toward the league average, but the brewers are one of the worst teams with runners in scoring position, ranked 25th in the MLB. Cincinnati is even worse, ranked 26th in the league. Milwaukee is also ranked 27th vs right handed pitchers and cincinnati is ranked 25th against righties.
The Reds have one of the best bullpens in the league and I checked the brewers numbers against each relief pitcher...their 2 worst relief pitchers pitched last night, so I except the better relief pitchers for the Reds to play tonight. In addition, the closer for the brewers is 1 save away to tie brad lidge for 4th all time in saves. The brewers #1 relief pitcher is Francisco Rodriguez. He hasn't pitched that well, but his numbers are bound to improve- his career numbers are much better than what he's shown early this season. I believe it just to be an early season slump.
I think there will be plenty of runs on the board, one way or the other. First you look at Tim Hudson and you see some strong advanced stats- 2.90 xFIP, 62.3% first strike rate, 13% swinging strike rate...but if you look closer he has a tERA of 5.83, BABIP of .324 and walk rate of 9.4%. His run support has been strong as well with 10 runs in 11 IP. For some reason, the bats of Atlanta come alive when he's on the mound.
Paul Maholm has been pitching great for the cubs this year, so why am I suggesting he might be giving up a decent number of runs today? Well, his boxscore numbers aren't telling the whole truth. I know he's only given up 3 runs in his past 18.1 innings pitched, but his advanced stats suggest it wont stay like that for long. First, he has a bad 4.54 xFIP, 5.66 tERA, low first strike and swinging strike rate, low strike out rate. Atlanta's lineup have also seem Maholm plenty and they have a good career average against him (.298 avg). 7 out of 9 of the Braves lineup are righties. Maholm is worse against righties- in 2011 he had a 4.00 FIP, 4.21 xFIP and .278 BABIP. His numbers this year are even worse with a 6.18 FIP, 4.80 xFIP and very low strike out rate of 10.8%. If you look at Maholms starts this year, only 1 time has he pitched a good hitting team against lefties- St. Louis cardinals. In that game he got torched and the cubs lost 3-10. Well, the Braves are the 6th best hitting team against left-handed pitchers with a team average of .271- very solid.
Beyond pitching variables, the weather is a cool 57 degrees and cloudy- bad for pitchers. I also don't believe the Atlanta Braves' bats will stay dormant for much longer- they will bounce back in a strong way. Considering the run support of Hudson and his poor outings so far combined with Maholm's history against this braves lineup and his weakness toward right handed batters, I believe there will definitely be more than 7 runs on the board when the game ends.
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#2 Atlanta Braves/Chicago Cubs Over 7 +105
pitching matchup:
T. Hudson (Braves) vs. P. Maholm (Cubs)
I think there will be plenty of runs on the board, one way or the other. First you look at Tim Hudson and you see some strong advanced stats- 2.90 xFIP, 62.3% first strike rate, 13% swinging strike rate...but if you look closer he has a tERA of 5.83, BABIP of .324 and walk rate of 9.4%. His run support has been strong as well with 10 runs in 11 IP. For some reason, the bats of Atlanta come alive when he's on the mound.
Paul Maholm has been pitching great for the cubs this year, so why am I suggesting he might be giving up a decent number of runs today? Well, his boxscore numbers aren't telling the whole truth. I know he's only given up 3 runs in his past 18.1 innings pitched, but his advanced stats suggest it wont stay like that for long. First, he has a bad 4.54 xFIP, 5.66 tERA, low first strike and swinging strike rate, low strike out rate. Atlanta's lineup have also seem Maholm plenty and they have a good career average against him (.298 avg). 7 out of 9 of the Braves lineup are righties. Maholm is worse against righties- in 2011 he had a 4.00 FIP, 4.21 xFIP and .278 BABIP. His numbers this year are even worse with a 6.18 FIP, 4.80 xFIP and very low strike out rate of 10.8%. If you look at Maholms starts this year, only 1 time has he pitched a good hitting team against lefties- St. Louis cardinals. In that game he got torched and the cubs lost 3-10. Well, the Braves are the 6th best hitting team against left-handed pitchers with a team average of .271- very solid.
Beyond pitching variables, the weather is a cool 57 degrees and cloudy- bad for pitchers. I also don't believe the Atlanta Braves' bats will stay dormant for much longer- they will bounce back in a strong way. Considering the run support of Hudson and his poor outings so far combined with Maholm's history against this braves lineup and his weakness toward right handed batters, I believe there will definitely be more than 7 runs on the board when the game ends.
Well, I was dead on for the cinci game, but way off for the braves game. Braves missed so many chances to bring in runners in scoring position. Here is another play:
#3 Texas Rangers -1 +104 risking 3 to win 3.12
#4 Texas Rangers/ Baltimore Orioles Over 9 -105 risking 3.15 to win 3
Pitching matchup:
C. Lewis (Rangers) vs. W. Chen (Orioles)
This game comes down to Wei-Yin Chen. His record is a good 2-0, but both victories were against two of the worst hitting teams against lefties this year (CWS and OAK). It's important because in all of his starts, only twice has he faced a good hitting team against left-handed pitchers- New York and Boston, giving up 8 runs in 10.2 IP. This time around he's facing the #1 hitting team in the league against lefties with a team wide batting avg of .313 (RIDICULOUS). His advanced numbers are not very good- 4.56 xFIP, lows 51.5% first strike rate and high .290 BABIP. He's even worse against right-handed hitters (Texas has 8 righties in the lineup today) with a 4.94 xFIP, .282 BABIP and 1.89 K/BB ratio (bad!). Chen is also a fly ball pitcher (46.2%), which could lead to more home runs for the Rangers. The Rangers have not lost at Camden yards since April of last year and I don't see that streak ending tonight. Also, half the lineup for the Orioles are right-handed hitters and Lewis has been filthy against them this season- 2.90 xFIP, walk rate of 1.7% and an extremely high 15.00 K/BB ratio. The Rangers have a better bullpen and lineup, so I believe they have a strong edge in this series.
Not only do I think the Rangers will win tonight based off the information above, but I see this game going over 9 runs again. From what I mentioned above, I do really think the Rangers will hit Wei-Yin Chen very well. I also think the Orioles can get some runs in off of Lewis. He has an average 3.92 xFIP and 4.33 tERA, but a high .298 BABIP. Also, the Orioles' lineup has historically hit well against Lewis with a collective average of .313. As I mentioned half the O's lineup are righties and Lewis is nasty against them this year, he is the exact opposite against lefties. He has a 4.57 xFIP, 4.94 FIP, and a much lower 4.00 K/BB ratio. Baltimore is also a very good hitting team against lefties, ranked 4th with a team average of .284.
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Well, I was dead on for the cinci game, but way off for the braves game. Braves missed so many chances to bring in runners in scoring position. Here is another play:
#3 Texas Rangers -1 +104 risking 3 to win 3.12
#4 Texas Rangers/ Baltimore Orioles Over 9 -105 risking 3.15 to win 3
Pitching matchup:
C. Lewis (Rangers) vs. W. Chen (Orioles)
This game comes down to Wei-Yin Chen. His record is a good 2-0, but both victories were against two of the worst hitting teams against lefties this year (CWS and OAK). It's important because in all of his starts, only twice has he faced a good hitting team against left-handed pitchers- New York and Boston, giving up 8 runs in 10.2 IP. This time around he's facing the #1 hitting team in the league against lefties with a team wide batting avg of .313 (RIDICULOUS). His advanced numbers are not very good- 4.56 xFIP, lows 51.5% first strike rate and high .290 BABIP. He's even worse against right-handed hitters (Texas has 8 righties in the lineup today) with a 4.94 xFIP, .282 BABIP and 1.89 K/BB ratio (bad!). Chen is also a fly ball pitcher (46.2%), which could lead to more home runs for the Rangers. The Rangers have not lost at Camden yards since April of last year and I don't see that streak ending tonight. Also, half the lineup for the Orioles are right-handed hitters and Lewis has been filthy against them this season- 2.90 xFIP, walk rate of 1.7% and an extremely high 15.00 K/BB ratio. The Rangers have a better bullpen and lineup, so I believe they have a strong edge in this series.
Not only do I think the Rangers will win tonight based off the information above, but I see this game going over 9 runs again. From what I mentioned above, I do really think the Rangers will hit Wei-Yin Chen very well. I also think the Orioles can get some runs in off of Lewis. He has an average 3.92 xFIP and 4.33 tERA, but a high .298 BABIP. Also, the Orioles' lineup has historically hit well against Lewis with a collective average of .313. As I mentioned half the O's lineup are righties and Lewis is nasty against them this year, he is the exact opposite against lefties. He has a 4.57 xFIP, 4.94 FIP, and a much lower 4.00 K/BB ratio. Baltimore is also a very good hitting team against lefties, ranked 4th with a team average of .284.
Both pitchers are pretty much equal amounts of suck this year. Similar ERAs, tERAs, xFIPs, and FIPs. I think what this match comes down to is the hitting of boston vs. the hitting of KC. The obvious edge goes to Boston. The sox are ranked 5th in the league vs left handed pitchers and Bruce Chen's history against the sox lineup is not very good- team wide career batting average of .314 against him. One the other side, the royals have not had good history against Lester- .136 batting average against him.
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#5 Boston Red Sox -1 -117
pitching matchup:
J. Lester (Red Sox) vs. B. Chen (Royals)
Both pitchers are pretty much equal amounts of suck this year. Similar ERAs, tERAs, xFIPs, and FIPs. I think what this match comes down to is the hitting of boston vs. the hitting of KC. The obvious edge goes to Boston. The sox are ranked 5th in the league vs left handed pitchers and Bruce Chen's history against the sox lineup is not very good- team wide career batting average of .314 against him. One the other side, the royals have not had good history against Lester- .136 batting average against him.
I am not entirely sure why Johnson is favored in so many games. His numbers this year are not great. Infact, he is very similar in almost every category as Harrell, except for FIP and xFIP. (Johnson- 3.36 xFIP, Harrell- 4.46 xFIP). However, Harrell has always been a good pitcher at home. He has a 3.07 xFIP at home this year with a very high ground ball rate of 66.7%. He was the same last year, but so far this year, he's had even better ground ball percentages. Houston is a much better hitting team against right handers and I think that will play a roll in this game.
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last play...
#6 Houston Astros +131
pitching matchup:
J. Jonhson (Marlins) vs. L. Harrell (Astros)
I am not entirely sure why Johnson is favored in so many games. His numbers this year are not great. Infact, he is very similar in almost every category as Harrell, except for FIP and xFIP. (Johnson- 3.36 xFIP, Harrell- 4.46 xFIP). However, Harrell has always been a good pitcher at home. He has a 3.07 xFIP at home this year with a very high ground ball rate of 66.7%. He was the same last year, but so far this year, he's had even better ground ball percentages. Houston is a much better hitting team against right handers and I think that will play a roll in this game.
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