I got this early on last night because I liked the pitching matchup between these two organizations. The O/U is now 7, which makes me feel a bit better about my bet. I know it must seem crazy to bet on an under with the Atlanta Braves playing, but, their past series with the Colorado Rockies was a slugging fest- nothing close to a pitching duel. Tonight, in Game 1 against the Cubs, we have what I believe to be a much different situation. In 3 games on the road this year, Hanson has pitched pretty solid only allowing 5 runs in 17 innings, a 3.15 xFIP and 2.65 ERA. In addition, only 2 players on the cubs lineup has ever hit against him. ALso, surprisingly, Hanson has low Run Support for a Braves pitcher with only 10 runs. On the other side, you have Jeff Samardzija. He's been great this year with a 2.91 xFIP and 3.67 tERA. He has a good first strike rate of 63% and swinging strike rate of 13%. 4 out of the 9 players on the braves lineup are righties, which is important because he's fiflty against righties- 2.49xFIP and 1.61 FIP. His numbers against lefties isn't bad either, still an above average 3.52 xFIP and 3.26 FIP. In addition, The Braves lineup has barely hit against Samardzija. They are 2-15 (.133 batting average) against him. Samardzija has also been great at home with an even better xFIP of 2.28 and 1.98 FIP. His strike out rate is 30.4% and his walk rate is a very low 3.6%, sick WHIP of 0.65, and ERA of 0.59 and BABIP of .194. His last outting at home against a good hitting team in St. Louis, he pitched for 6.2 innings and only gave up 4 hits, 0 runs and had 9 strike outs. Beyond the pitching, the Cubs are also pretty poor at run production, being ranked 24th in the league.
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#1 Atlanta Braves/Chicago Cubs Under 9 -115
pitching mathcup:
T. Hanson (Braves) vs. J. Samardzija (Cubs)
I got this early on last night because I liked the pitching matchup between these two organizations. The O/U is now 7, which makes me feel a bit better about my bet. I know it must seem crazy to bet on an under with the Atlanta Braves playing, but, their past series with the Colorado Rockies was a slugging fest- nothing close to a pitching duel. Tonight, in Game 1 against the Cubs, we have what I believe to be a much different situation. In 3 games on the road this year, Hanson has pitched pretty solid only allowing 5 runs in 17 innings, a 3.15 xFIP and 2.65 ERA. In addition, only 2 players on the cubs lineup has ever hit against him. ALso, surprisingly, Hanson has low Run Support for a Braves pitcher with only 10 runs. On the other side, you have Jeff Samardzija. He's been great this year with a 2.91 xFIP and 3.67 tERA. He has a good first strike rate of 63% and swinging strike rate of 13%. 4 out of the 9 players on the braves lineup are righties, which is important because he's fiflty against righties- 2.49xFIP and 1.61 FIP. His numbers against lefties isn't bad either, still an above average 3.52 xFIP and 3.26 FIP. In addition, The Braves lineup has barely hit against Samardzija. They are 2-15 (.133 batting average) against him. Samardzija has also been great at home with an even better xFIP of 2.28 and 1.98 FIP. His strike out rate is 30.4% and his walk rate is a very low 3.6%, sick WHIP of 0.65, and ERA of 0.59 and BABIP of .194. His last outting at home against a good hitting team in St. Louis, he pitched for 6.2 innings and only gave up 4 hits, 0 runs and had 9 strike outs. Beyond the pitching, the Cubs are also pretty poor at run production, being ranked 24th in the league.
Carlos Zambrano...Mr. Haywire for baseball, lol. You never know what you'll get with him. Considering who's pitching against the strong hitting of the astros, I expect him to get a loss. His numbers for the season haven't been outstanding. His has a 4.14 xFIP, 4.05 FIP and 4.25 tERA. 4 out of 9 players in the Astros lineup are lefties and he hasn't pitched well against them with a xFIP of 4.49, FIP of 4.93 and a high walk rate of 13.9%. The Astros' lineup has hit well against Zambrano with a team total average of .340 (33-97 ABs) against him. For the Astros, Wandy Rodriguez is their Ace and has been playing like it. His past 3 outtings have been great. He gave up only 3 runs in 20 IP, with 17 Ks. He has an above average of xFIP of 3.53, FIP of 2.33, ERA of 1.64 and tERA of 2.61. Wandy's numbers against the current Marlins' lineup is pretty solid with career average against him of .258. In addition to the advantage for the Astros in the pitching department, they are a much better hitting team and have a better bullpen.
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#2 Houston Astros -111
pitching matchup:
C. Zambrano (Marlins) vs. W. Rodriguez (Astros)
Carlos Zambrano...Mr. Haywire for baseball, lol. You never know what you'll get with him. Considering who's pitching against the strong hitting of the astros, I expect him to get a loss. His numbers for the season haven't been outstanding. His has a 4.14 xFIP, 4.05 FIP and 4.25 tERA. 4 out of 9 players in the Astros lineup are lefties and he hasn't pitched well against them with a xFIP of 4.49, FIP of 4.93 and a high walk rate of 13.9%. The Astros' lineup has hit well against Zambrano with a team total average of .340 (33-97 ABs) against him. For the Astros, Wandy Rodriguez is their Ace and has been playing like it. His past 3 outtings have been great. He gave up only 3 runs in 20 IP, with 17 Ks. He has an above average of xFIP of 3.53, FIP of 2.33, ERA of 1.64 and tERA of 2.61. Wandy's numbers against the current Marlins' lineup is pretty solid with career average against him of .258. In addition to the advantage for the Astros in the pitching department, they are a much better hitting team and have a better bullpen.
We have pitchers with very different performances so far this season. Jered Weaver has pitched very well this season. He has a xFIP of 2.87, FIP of 1.99, SIERA of 2.68 and 2.24 tERA. His WHIP is a great 0.78 with a very low BB/9 of 1.41. Francisco Liriano has not done as well- he has a xFIP of 5.43 (bad), FIP of 6.74, 7.65 tERA, 9.97 ERA and SIERA of 5.36. His first strike rate, swinging strike rate, and strike out rate are all lower this year. His Walk rate is a high 14.6% and a high WHIP of 2.22 and BABIP of .380. In his past 2 outtings, Jered Weaver has given up 0 runs in 15 innings with 17 strike outs. Francisco Liriano's past 3 games have not been as strong- 12.2 innings of work in 3 games earning a total of 14 runs, giving 3 homeruns and walking 11 batters. Jerad Weaver has also been very strong against the current Twins lineup. They have a career average against him of .193 (18-93 ABs). On the otherhand, Liriano has had horrible success against the Angels lineup; they have a .359 average against him (28-78 ABs). Beyond the obvious the Angels' obvious pitching advantage, the angels are a better hitting team. Over the past 2 years, Minnesota is 2-6 on their first home game after a 6+ game road trip with 0 days of rest inbetween. Jered Weaver also has a history of much strong run support than Liriano.
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#3 Los Angeles -1.5 +100
pitching matchup:
J. Weaver (Angels) vs. F. Liriano (Twins)
We have pitchers with very different performances so far this season. Jered Weaver has pitched very well this season. He has a xFIP of 2.87, FIP of 1.99, SIERA of 2.68 and 2.24 tERA. His WHIP is a great 0.78 with a very low BB/9 of 1.41. Francisco Liriano has not done as well- he has a xFIP of 5.43 (bad), FIP of 6.74, 7.65 tERA, 9.97 ERA and SIERA of 5.36. His first strike rate, swinging strike rate, and strike out rate are all lower this year. His Walk rate is a high 14.6% and a high WHIP of 2.22 and BABIP of .380. In his past 2 outtings, Jered Weaver has given up 0 runs in 15 innings with 17 strike outs. Francisco Liriano's past 3 games have not been as strong- 12.2 innings of work in 3 games earning a total of 14 runs, giving 3 homeruns and walking 11 batters. Jerad Weaver has also been very strong against the current Twins lineup. They have a career average against him of .193 (18-93 ABs). On the otherhand, Liriano has had horrible success against the Angels lineup; they have a .359 average against him (28-78 ABs). Beyond the obvious the Angels' obvious pitching advantage, the angels are a better hitting team. Over the past 2 years, Minnesota is 2-6 on their first home game after a 6+ game road trip with 0 days of rest inbetween. Jered Weaver also has a history of much strong run support than Liriano.
#4 St. Louis Cardinals -117risking 3.51 units to win 3 units.
pitching matchup:
L. Lynn (Cardinals) vs. J. Saunders (D-backs)
Joe Saunders has been excellent this year, but at the same Lynn is has been pitching lights out as he is undefeated. Lynn has incredible numbers with a 2.84 xFIP, 2.70 tERA, and 2.80 SIERA. His first strike rate is a high 64.5% and a strong swining strike rate of 10.7%. What's most suprising is the success of Saunders. Last year he was mediocre pitcher, so why the improvement? Well, first, his His Strike out rate is 17.5% from 12-13% the last couple years. Also, ground ball rate is 51%, first time in his career over 50% (6.5% increase from last year and 7.3% from 2 years ago). His .245 BABIP and 84% strand rate indicate some regression might occur as the league average is 70%. The same thing applies to Lynn as his BABIP is .198 and his strand rate is 92%; however, Lynn's numbers match up with last year's numbers when he was a reliever. Lynn has a 2.37 xFIP against righties, but Arizona countered by inserting 4 lefties in their lineup (and the pitcher, totaling 5 lefties), none of which have even hit against Lynn.
On the other side, Saunders has very interesting righty/lefty splits. Against lefties, he has a great 1.67 xFIP and 9.0 K/BB ratio. Against righties, he has a 1.67 K/BB ratio and 4.23 xFIP. If you look at last year (lefties- 6.67 K/BB and 2.67 xFIP, righties- 1.11 K/BB and 4.90 xFIP), his current numbers are on par with last year's numbers. Now, this is a very important split because the Cardinals are #1 offense against left handers and with exception Jon Jay, are all right handed batters. If you look at Saunder's 5 starts this year, 4 games went against the top 10 weakest offensive rankings against lefty pitchers ( SD #26, Pit #21, Atl #6, MIA #25 and WAS #29). Due to this matchup, I believe Saunders will really struggle against this lineup.
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#4 St. Louis Cardinals -117risking 3.51 units to win 3 units.
pitching matchup:
L. Lynn (Cardinals) vs. J. Saunders (D-backs)
Joe Saunders has been excellent this year, but at the same Lynn is has been pitching lights out as he is undefeated. Lynn has incredible numbers with a 2.84 xFIP, 2.70 tERA, and 2.80 SIERA. His first strike rate is a high 64.5% and a strong swining strike rate of 10.7%. What's most suprising is the success of Saunders. Last year he was mediocre pitcher, so why the improvement? Well, first, his His Strike out rate is 17.5% from 12-13% the last couple years. Also, ground ball rate is 51%, first time in his career over 50% (6.5% increase from last year and 7.3% from 2 years ago). His .245 BABIP and 84% strand rate indicate some regression might occur as the league average is 70%. The same thing applies to Lynn as his BABIP is .198 and his strand rate is 92%; however, Lynn's numbers match up with last year's numbers when he was a reliever. Lynn has a 2.37 xFIP against righties, but Arizona countered by inserting 4 lefties in their lineup (and the pitcher, totaling 5 lefties), none of which have even hit against Lynn.
On the other side, Saunders has very interesting righty/lefty splits. Against lefties, he has a great 1.67 xFIP and 9.0 K/BB ratio. Against righties, he has a 1.67 K/BB ratio and 4.23 xFIP. If you look at last year (lefties- 6.67 K/BB and 2.67 xFIP, righties- 1.11 K/BB and 4.90 xFIP), his current numbers are on par with last year's numbers. Now, this is a very important split because the Cardinals are #1 offense against left handers and with exception Jon Jay, are all right handed batters. If you look at Saunder's 5 starts this year, 4 games went against the top 10 weakest offensive rankings against lefty pitchers ( SD #26, Pit #21, Atl #6, MIA #25 and WAS #29). Due to this matchup, I believe Saunders will really struggle against this lineup.
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