#1 Texas Rangers -1.5 +100
pitching matchup:
Y. Darvish (Rangers) vs. U. Jimenez (Indians)
The last time I bet against Darvish, I paid the price. This kid has really come into form over his past 4 games. In 27.1 innings (4 outings) Yu Darvish has given up a total of 4 runs. His past 2 starts, he's given up just 1 run in 15.1 IP with 19 Ks. Darvish's numbers for the year are solid- he has a 3.78 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA. He also has the unfamiliarity factor as Cleveland hasn't hit against him before. On the other side for the Indians, you have one of the worst performing pitchers in the league- Ubaldo Jimenez. He has a xFIP of 5.89 and a tERA of 6.98. His swinging strike rate is a very low 4.9% and his walk rate is a very high 15%. It's even higher than his strike out rate (10.5%). The Rangers have seen Jimenez before and hit him well- I don't see that changing. Also, the Rangers bullpen is the best in the league and they are a much better hitting team. I believe considering the different direction these 2 pitchers are going, we shall see an easy win by Texas.
#2 Baltimore Orioles/ Boston Red Sox Over 10.5 runs +105
pitching matchup:
T. Hunter (Orioles) vs. C. Buchholz (Red Sox)
Both of these pitchers have much better records than what their pitching performance might indicate. Tommy Hunter is 2-1 so far this year, but he has a xFIP of 4.62 and tERA of 6.89. Not only are those numbers horrible, but his numbers on the road are even worse. He has a FIP of 9.75 and xFIP of 4.58. Here is a breakdown of the 2 road games he's had this year:
4/18/2012- @CHW- L 1-8, 9 hits, 8 runs and 4 walks in only 5.2 innings.
4/13/2012- @TOR- ND 7-5, 6 hits and 5 runs.
Also, Tommy Hunter has a bad history against the Red Sox lineup. Not to mention, Boston is one of the best hitting teams in baseball. Tommy Hunter has not been good on the road and he's facing a team that hits very well- I expect that to continue.
C. Buchholz's record of 3-1 should have a big fat asterisk next to it. This guy has received the most run support in all of major league baseball with a run support of 35 runs in 5 games, which has kept him away from the loss column. In his past 3 starts, he's given up 26 hits and 17 runs in 18 IP. Combine that with a great hitting divisional opponent and I see lots of balls flying all over the park.
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