MLB 5/09/16 It's Monday, get your fat arse........

Question

out of bed and go to work. Your handicapper has been at it for hours!

MLB – 2016

36-29, $ +1,903.57, +14.6% RoR

5/09 Flat $200.00

Brewers-Marlins, OVER 7.5, -107, Peralta/Fernandez

The name Fernandez has kept the total low here but what under bettors are not looking at is that Peralta adds nothing to your probability and BOTH teams whack the daylights out of right handed pitching. In their last 15 versus righty the Brewers have posted an oera of 5.85 and the Marlins have posted 4.96, but the Marlins have also posted 10 straight quality performances at 6.31. For sure the Marlins can whack a stiff like Peralta and the Brewers may be able to give Fernandez a run for the money.

Indians -120, Kluber/Fiers

The Astros are still a fan and bettor favorite but their record to date denies they are anything like the Cinderella team of last year. Kluber has caught fire his last few games while Fiers appears to be an average chucker on a below average team. The tribe has posted 10 quality outings in their last 15 versus righty for an oera of 5.79, while the Astros come into this one with 8 and 4.14. Good old “home field advantage” has kept the price down, but the Indians have almost everything in their favor tonight.

BOL

KeyElement · Answer

out of bed and go to work. Your handicapper has been at it for hours!

MLB – 2016

36-29, $ +1,903.57, +14.6% RoR

5/09 Flat $200.00

Brewers-Marlins, OVER 7.5, -107, Peralta/Fernandez

The name Fernandez has kept the total low here but what under bettors are not looking at is that Peralta adds nothing to your probability and BOTH teams whack the daylights out of right handed pitching. In their last 15 versus righty the Brewers have posted an oera of 5.85 and the Marlins have posted 4.96, but the Marlins have also posted 10 straight quality performances at 6.31. For sure the Marlins can whack a stiff like Peralta and the Brewers may be able to give Fernandez a run for the money.

Indians -120, Kluber/Fiers

The Astros are still a fan and bettor favorite but their record to date denies they are anything like the Cinderella team of last year. Kluber has caught fire his last few games while Fiers appears to be an average chucker on a below average team. The tribe has posted 10 quality outings in their last 15 versus righty for an oera of 5.79, while the Astros come into this one with 8 and 4.14. Good old “home field advantage” has kept the price down, but the Indians have almost everything in their favor tonight.

BOL

cjm2008 · Answer

With you on the Tribe today also. I like the way Kluber has rebounded his last three starts.

KeyElement · Answer

Yes, he has posted 3 straight with an average rating of 80.4 versus the MLB benchmark of 64. Hope he doesn&#x27;t drop off tonight.

TheGoldenGoose · Answer

Nice sweep yesterday.GL tonight.

TheActuary · Answer

BOL today Key.Yesterday night the Indians were at -123, this morning -120, and now -108!!F5 line stayed at -118. Hopefully Kluber will stay in the game late, as he did in his last 3 outings.

brent0887 · Answer

I don&#x27;t work til6pm estDon&#x27;t rush me hahaLove the thread titles latelyAnd the plays even moreThank you

undermysac · Answer

I hate work. It always interferes w/ my hobbies.I&#x27;m on the tribe 1st 5BOL TODAY

tuck321 · Answer

Toronto?

tuck321 · Answer

By the way I am steamed at the line move.  I rarely bet without ump info but if I got the right ump might have considered reverse run line.  Now its not nearly as profitable.

HAVOC-22 · Answer

Hi Key, BIG fan! Is it me or has your diction changed over the last year?

HoustonSports · Answer

The Milwaukee pitching staff has allowed 4 runs or more every single game since April 11th

RF1 · Answer

Interesting to see you play a total Key. Best of luck.

KeyElement · Answer

Well, you don&#x27;t hit against a staff, you hit against a starter and bullpen, but Wily Peralta is one of the worst starters in the game (49.2) so I guess your point is valid, but I would have to take a second look if Nelson were the starter. I don&#x27;t think bettors are granting the Marlins offense enough credit either. If they left W.P. in there long enough (which they won&#x27;t) the marlins would clear 7.5 by themselves. Even if they leave him in up to 4 or 5, the Brewers bullpen will surrender the rest. Whatever the Brewers score should be a bonus.

KeyElement · Answer

Most often you have to lay juice to be on the right side of totals, so I concentrate on dogs first, and I am also more prone to the 5 inning under. Seldom do I call for an over. One guy I knew in Vegas had exactly the right description of what I do. "If you start with the dog or the under, you start with a winner, someone has to take it away from you".

Scottishlass · Answer

GL

KeyElement · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by HAVOC-22]  Hi Key, BIG fan! Is it me or has your diction changed over the last year?   [/Quote] I don&#x27;t know, but I have tried to completely eliminate any nasty language or double meanings, or anything unseemly. Sometimes I use arse, but that is just Australian slang. I used to be known as a class act around here and I prefer to keep that reputation. (Regardless of the b.s. I crank out at old JEG53, my oldest and dearest friend here. That is the one exception to the rule, and he actually enjoys the abuse).

piotrtoro · Answer

BOL Key

mjm1012 · Answer

GL

RF1 · Answer

Don&#x27;t always have to lay juice to be on right side of totals. I&#x27;m 49-38 this year playing over/unders and my average odds size is (&#x2B;102).I agree and have looked at it that way for years, if you start with an under or a dog, someone has to beat you.

bold27 · Answer

Good luck Key

ChizzleEnt23 · Answer

im a little disappointed her expected a solid 3-5 game card as thus the lines have aligned perfectly and I don't care that its Monday. high probable winnable game and I don't care how much juice there is today with nats/clev/balt/tor/sea/pitt/s/Miami all in great spots with starter/bullpen/hitting all in there favor also cpl maybe are oak/nyy/tex lil risk to me tho

Cybflash83 · Answer

GL

MLB 5/09/16 It's Monday, get your fat arse........

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