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MLB 4/19/17

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

4/19/17

18-15-1, RoR +26.3% (vs 11/10 odds 66.2%)

Rangers, FG, +101, Perez / Hahn

1-1 on 4/18 drops my game win % to 54.6%. but the bankroll goes up and it still takes 66.2% @ 11/10 to match the RoR. I notice more folks catching on to the true mathematics of baseball wagering so let’s keep up the daily recap for a while.

I am not a big fan of Hahn and Perez was an early season big winner last year, apparently tiring after the break and not doing as well late in the season. That may be a pattern with him but I will back him today in a bounce back situation for the Rangers. Another advantage we have is that after a great ST run the A’s are now struggling with lefties.

Pretty sure I will have a 5 inning play after the lines open, but overall today’s card looks a little slim for dog opportunities.

BOL 

Counsel leaves Nelson in until he's completely toasted or you would had both the Rockies and the Brewers ... bol.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by DaveyMade3:



Redsox yesturday *
The BJ's had a fighting chance versus a lefty, and Stroman didn't necessarily have to have a bad day. 
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Posted: #28
I like the Dodger Blue today
Anderson is just not the same guy as last year and the Dodgers have to be soooo tired of the they cannot hit Lefties crap.

They can hit this guy, this year and the Rox cannot hit the best pitcher in baseball
Usually on principle alone, I will take the RL at even in a game at a line of 6.5 O/U but today I am going to lay the 1.5


Thanks for the picks buddy


GL
 
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Posted: #29
Key what website do you use for these odds? And how is like when it comes to collecting money for your th site you use? Ever any delays or problems?

Appreciate the work you do. Thanks!
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by r.a.:

Counsel leaves Nelson in until he's completely toasted or you would had both the Rockies and the Brewers ... bol.
Nature of the beast. Nothing to be done about it. Move on.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

I like the Dodger Blue today
Anderson is just not the same guy as last year and the Dodgers have to be soooo tired of the they cannot hit Lefties crap.

They can hit this guy, this year and the Rox cannot hit the best pitcher in baseball
Usually on principle alone, I will take the RL at even in a game at a line of 6.5 O/U but today I am going to lay the 1.5


Thanks for the picks buddy


GL
Cardinal rule of mine: Never play a home favorite on the 9 inning run line. 5 innings is much smarter. BOL 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by ByrdMane612:

Key what website do you use for these odds? And how is like when it comes to collecting money for your th site you use? Ever any delays or problems?

Appreciate the work you do. Thanks!
Lines I use are from Heritage, BetOnline or 5Dimes. Never had a problem, and the odds you see on my picks are exactly what I got at the time I played.

Heritage is in bold because they have had the least delay.
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Posted: #33
Thanks Key!
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Cardinal rule of mine: Never play a home favorite on the 9 inning run line. 5 innings is much smarter. BOL 

I can see that but the Rox ran their best out there yesterday and the Dodger's being  behind did not. I think today, the Dodgers (if in the lead) will get a little more edge from their Bullpen than the Rox who figure to use some of their middle inning guys.... We will see, we will see.


 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:


I can see that but the Rox ran their best out there yesterday and the Dodger's being  behind did not. I think today, the Dodgers (if in the lead) will get a little more edge from their Bullpen than the Rox who figure to use some of their middle inning guys.... We will see, we will see.


Your money, your choice. 
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Posted: #36
BOL Key off to another great season. the most consistent and knowledgable capper in MLB forums.
 
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Posted: #37
GL today Key 
 
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Posted: #38
Good luck Key!
 
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Posted: #39
BOL 
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Your money, your choice. 

Maybe compromise - manufacture a minus one line
 
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Posted: #41
key, have you thought about making any ingame plays with your bets? maybe doing  a half bet pregame and then the other half sometime during the game? unless your side runs away with it from the get, you can almost always get a better line.  or would you rather bet it and forget it?
 
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Posted: #42
The giants DO hit lefties well.  Currently 5th in the MLB scoring 22 runs    Kansas City on other hand is DEAD LAST at 3 measley runs so far. Eeeesh.   Good luck with your UNDER.  I had to take bad bum in the -130s since posey is back.   That team really really needs a new left fielder    And span needs to retire.  Pagan cannot be worse than him.  
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Ramanujan:


Maybe compromise - manufacture a minus one line
That might help a lot of guys and looks like a pretty fair idea, but it is not for me personally. I do not like to play any side unless I can figure the dog to win outright or the favorite to win by two or more (5 inning run line being the exception). Better than -1.5 on a home favorite though, that's for sure.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by herbals:

key, have you thought about making any ingame plays with your bets? maybe doing  a half bet pregame and then the other half sometime during the game? unless your side runs away with it from the get, you can almost always get a better line.  or would you rather bet it and forget it?
Nope. I lays my bets and pays the price. Not interested in chasing or guesstimating on the fly.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #45
Mets Vs. Phillies over 7 FG

 
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Posted: #46
 ...Navy!! 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by concavecapital:

The giants DO hit lefties well.  Currently 5th in the MLB scoring 22 runs    Kansas City on other hand is DEAD LAST at 3 measley runs so far. Eeeesh.   Good luck with your UNDER.  I had to take bad bum in the -130s since posey is back.   That team really really needs a new left fielder    And span needs to retire.  Pagan cannot be worse than him.  
My bad, you are correct. Vargas has been so sharp thus far that is where my trust lies and he is a change up pitcher in a big park, with low exit velocity on contact. I will stick with the play, but you are correct about Giants offense. Must have been typing off the top of my head without putting my brain in gear.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by DAVIDN:

 ...Navy!! 
taxi service
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by backdooor_cover:

Mets Vs. Phillies over 7 FG

I can see that one. Overvalued pitching / undervalued offense.
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Posted: #50
You are only one of 3 people I follow on here.   Respect the hell outta yah. 
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