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MLB 4/19/17

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4/19/17

18-15-1, RoR +26.3% (vs 11/10 odds 66.2%)

Rangers, FG, +101, Perez / Hahn

1-1 on 4/18 drops my game win % to 54.6%. but the bankroll goes up and it still takes 66.2% @ 11/10 to match the RoR. I notice more folks catching on to the true mathematics of baseball wagering so let’s keep up the daily recap for a while.

I am not a big fan of Hahn and Perez was an early season big winner last year, apparently tiring after the break and not doing as well late in the season. That may be a pattern with him but I will back him today in a bounce back situation for the Rangers. Another advantage we have is that after a great ST run the A’s are now struggling with lefties.

Pretty sure I will have a 5 inning play after the lines open, but overall today’s card looks a little slim for dog opportunities.

BOL 

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #2
 BOL Key!
 
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Top of the morning Key!

I was thinking the same about the dogs today. Even Texas is PK right now in my book. Wanted to ask your opinion about one play and one game. The play is Giants Royals FG Under and the game is Washington vs Atlanta. There's no line yet, do you think Teheran will be a dog in this one? 

Thanks as always and BOL!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by efectivo:

Top of the morning Key!

I was thinking the same about the dogs today. Even Texas is PK right now in my book. Wanted to ask your opinion about one play and one game. The play is Giants Royals FG Under and the game is Washington vs Atlanta. There's no line yet, do you think Teheran will be a dog in this one? 

Thanks as always and BOL!
Teheran may be a dog but I don't think he should be. More likely that game will be close to even. That being said, I am curious why the line is late opening. What is holding up the books? What do they know or suspect that we don't? 

Bumgarner/Vargas could be the under of the year. We all know Bumgarner and Vargas is off to a great start. Neither team hits lefties well and Kaufmann is a pitcher's park. Tumpane behind gthe plate does no harm. A light breeze (17 mph) out to left could be the only thing that keeps the under from being "the perfect storm". The curent 8 looks pretty high to me but I am waiting to see if theyopen F5 at 4.5, then I will definitely pull the trigger. BOL 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Giants/ Royals, Bumgarner/Vargas
First 5 innings, UNDER 4, +103
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #8
Key's betting logic = if they can't hit a leftie then it's a lock POY 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

Key's betting logic = if they can't hit a leftie then it's a lock POY 


Keys logic = +$


 
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Posted: #10
That's a great line you got Key. I got 4,5 @ -130, still playing it. Will look for alternative totals and see if I can get +money. I'm willing to go to 3,5 even 3. 

BOL!
 
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Posted: #11
Red Sox Porcello/Liriano
First 5 innings, -.5, +120

Reds Jimenez/Garrett
First 5 innings, -.5, +120

that's all folks.
BOL

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Quote Originally Posted by efectivo:

That's a great line you got Key. I got 4,5 @ -130, still playing it. Will look for alternative totals and see if I can get +money. I'm willing to go to 3,5 even 3. 

BOL!
3 might be a little shaky, but you should be able to find 4 or 3.5 at +$. The line I posted was at Heritage.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #13
GL Key
 
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Good luck today key
 
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Sorry is that Red Sox and reds first five moneyline posted as the picks
 
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Do you think there's any value on the Brewers +175 today? 
 
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Key I'm surprised u weren't on the redsox today. Really good value on an awful jays squad . I didn't touch it either but I was reall dang close . Good luck today 
 
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GL Key
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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On them all Key ... My bball plays pretty muched pushed yesterday . That close to having a clean sweep... Man 
 
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Like the Reds but going the distance with them.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by DaveyMade3:

Key I'm surprised u weren't on the redsox today. Really good value on an awful jays squad . I didn't touch it either but I was reall dang close . Good luck today 


Redsox yesturday *
 
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Good luck today Key. 
 
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under 4 1/ 2 kc game @ minus 130 locked in all three plays. thank you,sir! let's do it!
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by xman3737:

Sorry is that Red Sox and reds first five moneyline posted as the picks
Red Sox, -.5, +120 First 5 innings
reds -.5, +120, First 5 innings


Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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