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#1
Record: 5-4
Giants/Nationals OVER 8 1/2
This total looks a little light when both starters are carrying traffic and neither one misses many bats. Logan Webb's 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP tell you the margin for error has been thin, while Zack Littell's profile is even shakier when you stack the hard-contact data on top. A 92.9 MPH average exit velo and .525 xSLG allowed is the kind of mix that turns routine contact into crooked numbers fast. Add in the low strikeout rates on both sides, and this sets up as a high-contact, high-variance game script. That is usually where overs cash. This number is asking for a cleaner pitching matchup than the data suggests.
Good Luck!
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