SHARPS STRUGGLING
WITH WASHINGTON NATIONALS!
I don't recall ever seeing anything quite like this in my years as an oddsmaker or big bettor.
Sharps (professional wagerers) are losing quite a bit of money this year betting on one of the worst teams the sport has seen. In fact, sharps were betting Washington so heavily for awhile that the lines were steaming up on a nightly basis.
In fact, on their most recent homestand, the Nationals were pick-em or favored seven times in 11 games. Prices got as high as -125 three times and -140 once. And this is while the worst team in baseball was going 2-9 on the homestand!
After this past weekend, Washington stood at 13-36 for the year, for a net loss of about 21 units. No other teams were nearly this bad. Both Colorado and Oakland were down about 10 units, and they've had very disappointing seasons. Most other losers are still reasonably close to even in betting terms because the markets do their best to reflect where everyone stands.
The market has GREATLY overestimated the Nationals all season. It's been a mystery to me. I talked to some cohorts the other day to try and figure out what was going on. It looks like all of the following are influences:
*There was some positive press before the season started about improvement with the Nationals. A lot of people made the mistake of believing the press!
*Washington kept finding creative ways to blow early games. Often, that's a sign of a team on the verge of a breakthrough. They're just about to get things figured out and start winning. Sharps wanted to be ahead of that curve. They kept betting thinking they were getting good prices on a potential breakout team.
*Washington had some good pitching prospects in the minor leagues when the season started. Those guys got called into the rotation because of the bad start and injuries. Sharps have really done a good job of studying new pitchers in recent years, focusing on their strikeout rates and their ERA's. The sharps overrated how well these guys would do right off the bat. And, they underrated how bad the bullpen still was. The new pitchers would throw 5-6 good innings, but the team would lose anyway because of the bullpen.
*Sharps love betting 'contrarian'when it comes to baseball. They'll go against the big market teams who are so high priced every night. They don't mind taking big returns with the ugly teams, figuring those teams aren't as bad as the public thinks. Well, the public stopped betting baseball this year! The lines weren't based on the public perceptions, they were based on oddsmakers recognizing that the sharps were making a mistake! Sharps were betting lines that hadn't really been adjusted to the public, and then drove them further away from where they should have been. It was just amazing to see sharp money coming in on Washington at home against Pittsburgh and Baltimore on that homestand. The Nats were being bet like they were the Mets or Cubs.
*Sharps often have a blind spot when it comes to bullpens. For as long as I can remember, sharps have been complaining about bad beats when their'live'underdog led most of the game then lost late because of the bullpen. Sharps often focus on price to their detriment. They see decent starting pitching, a nice return on the moneyline...and they forget to check on bullpen quality. Washington has a horrible bullpen this year...and that's the thing sharps pay the least attention to.
*Sharps like to bet against 'hot'teams and on 'cold' teams figuring everybody is going to regress to the mean eventually. That works quite a bit in sports. When something like the Washington Nationals happen, it causes losing bets to pile up. You can't have a great year if part of your strategy is going 13-36! That puts too much pressure on everything else you're doing to be great just so you can break even.
*Sharps are stubborn. If they think they're getting the best of it, they'll keep right on betting regardless of recent results. Usually they ARE getting the best of it and the math works itself out. Maybe Washington is about to catch fire, and sharps will get back most or all of their losses. Right now, that stubbornness is digging a deep hole.
Maybe at -20 units everything's about to work it's way back to normal. I heard guys saying that at -15 units, and even back at -10 units. Sharps have been waiting for the Nats to start winning for quite some time.
The problem with betting on Washington to get hot now is:
NOBODY'S BETTING THE OTHER SIDE!
There isn't yet massive line value against the 'horrible' team because the lines aren't warped. Normally, when a team is this bad, opponents are -200, -250, or even -300 on the moneyline. That's because the public loves betting against bad teams. As I said earlier, the public isn't betting much baseball this year. Oddsmakers KNOW the sharps are betting Washington, and they're not giving them much value.
If Washington gets settled and goes 10-10 its next 20 games, how much money is that going to make? In a normal season, you'd pick up several units because the returns are so high when bad teams win. This year, it might be worth just a few units. And, if the wins are coming at home...maybe even less.
Sharps will be digging out of their Nationals hole with a small shovel unless the team becomes good and runs off a lot of wins in a row. We could see it. San Diego had a big winning streak earlier (mostly at home). If Washington ever fixes its bullpen problems, they'll start winning close games instead of losing them. Until that happens, why would anybody bet on the Nationals?
If you're thinking about betting Nationals games now that I've put them on your radar:
*Look for value prices to go AGAINST them until they start winning. It's been amazingly cheap to go against this bad team so far in 2009. That's why they're down 20 betting units so quickly. Remember that the lines are stacked against the sharps in this case rather than against the public. The public isn't betting...and the sharps have shown their cards too clearly.
*Look for evidence that the bullpen is getting things figured out. THEN start backing the Nationals as underdogs if they have an effective starter on the mound.
*Look to go against them as home favorites until they start winning at home. They're on a road trip now, but will be back home eventually. This team is 7-16 at home this year, but the sharps keep betting them like they're 16-7.
*If you have a read that their offense is likely to have a very good game, bet on the team total to go Over or the full game total to go Over rather than on the Nats. There are ways to bet on Washington's offense in a way where the bad bullpen actually helps you.
Bottom line, don't bet on Washington to win until they start winning. Maybe they are about to regress to the man. Maybe -20 units is the nadir of the season and they'll work their way back to -10 units or better. Nothing wrong with buying low and selling high. You don't want to buy a company that's about to go bankrupt though! Sharps outsmarted themselves and dug a hole with this team. Keep the shovel out of your hands.
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