Posted:
#1
2009
Record: 228-221, +42.1299
Kamienieckis
Sunday: 2-9, -10.190
units
Sorry for the huge crash and burn yesterday. What a strange two
days; a great Saturday followed by a disastrous Sunday with a net effect of an
approximate one unit loss. I just logged on and want to say thanks to several
guys: BigBozo, Happy Cap, Mightymouse. Luck3yChance, Celtics97, Bonzi, Pack4Ever
and to the others guys who have my back. It makes it much easier for me to
ignore the stupidity brought upon by others and to focus on marching
forward.
For those who say I play too many games, you are entitled to your
opinions, but like I mentioned, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." I agree with
that philosophy to a certain extent in basketball and football where you are
typically paying 10% juice and therefore have to hit at least 52.5% to show a
profit. However, based upon the model I have created for myself, through my
weights and averages, I can lose my next 25 games averaging -110 at 1.5 units
per game and I'd still be in the positive with a 48% win
percentage.
As I wrote in my 2008 article at Covers, which I have re-posted
several times this spring:
I played 1,172 games last year and finished with a record of
626-546 (53.4%) and made a profit of +140.86 units. Let's say this season I play
1000 games at an average of +110 (slightly higher than last year). Here is what
I can expect if you assume that I flat bet every game at the same amount:
Win % Unit Profit
47.7 Even
48% +8 units
49% +29 units
50% +50 units
51% +71 units
52% +92 units
53% +113 units
54% +134 units
I won't use anything above 54% because it just won't happen. Last year I hit over 53.4% and as such, had an outstanding season. Even if I don't reach that standard, at 50%, I will still make a handsome profit.
Win % Unit Profit
47.7 Even
48% +8 units
49% +29 units
50% +50 units
51% +71 units
52% +92 units
53% +113 units
54% +134 units
I won't use anything above 54% because it just won't happen. Last year I hit over 53.4% and as such, had an outstanding season. Even if I don't reach that standard, at 50%, I will still make a handsome profit.
At an average of +110, if I play 100 games and go 50-50, I win +5
units so I view it as each extra play in baseball I make that fits my criteria, actually
adds +0.05 units to my bankroll where in football and basketball, if I go 50-50, I lose -5
units and each play extra play could actually cost me -0.05 units.
The way I handicap and bet is not for the people looking for a
quick fix or a day of winners. It's the tortoise and the hare and I am the
tortoise.
ST. LOUIS -115 (1.75 UNITS)
FLORIDA -125 (1.75 UNITS)
UNDER PITT/ATL 8 RUNS (+112) (1.5 UNITS)
ARIZONA +164 (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER TOR/TEX 10 RUNS (-102) (1.5 UNITS)
DETROIT GAME 1 (GALARRAGA/RICHARD) +112 (2 UNITS)
I will definitely add the White Sox in Game 2 if they lose Game 1 as I like
the dynamics of the matchup. For those interested, I advise to check back between 5-6pm.
0
With you regardless...
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