MLB - Monday 5/17

If I was a whiny little girl with no capping skills and had to tail someone as my only recourse for picking a game - and that person I was tailing hit a slump - I would be whining like a little sissy nancy boy as well - especially if I lost everything I had and my job paid little.

However I am a real man with pride and self respect and I don't play with scared money.

 

Flaming a solid capper who offers insight and hangs out his plays for all to see is a real man as well. Thanks GameHunter, you are a real class act.

 

When someone flames it basically says: I am a loser sissy boy who makes no decisions and takes no responsibility, so I will tail, and then blame and flame the guy here who I was tailing because I have no backbone, no guts and no capping skills and now I am mad as hell because of this guy's picks.

You whiny little girls make real men look good in the eyes of the ladies (and make our job easy) because you are their other alternative. 

Keep up the good work and if you really want to help - post your picks, not so we can laugh - we are real men and don't waste our time laughing at the weak - but so we can quietly make some money on the fade.

Thank you

I think if people and especially GameHunter would give some analysis with their picks if would help matters. What was the reason of the pick ? That would keep people from just blinding following bad advice. Just a sentence or two.
I have not followed Game, but he does know his baseball. I wish him luck on his return. Analysis will help.

Take a hard look Vanzack....there is no such thing as long term line value. Why? Because Vegas moves that line all the time!

Hit and run....that is the only long term model that works...and that is the one I use.

Think it through...ask any bookie anywhere or any book maker in Vegas. The guys they love are the ones that play ten games a day. The guys they hate are the ones that play one game a month.

Long term? That's twenty years. If I play ten games a year in baseball, that's 200 games by 2030. 200 perfect storms. 200 plays where ALL of the factors that are important have fallen into place. Does that happen ten times a day, ten times a week, or even ten times a month? Absolutlely not, and we both know that's for sure.

Hit and run........That's a long term sustainable goal.

Successful long term gamblers have patience. Tons of it. Successful long term gamblers know that the answer to a cold streak is to back off. Successful long term gamblers know that nobody stays hot forever. Successful long term gamblers know that what worked last year may not work this year. They know that book makers make adjustments, leagues make adjustments, referees and umpires make adjustments, and most importantly they know that if they don't make adjustments as well......they will surely go broke.

Sure, being a sports investor is a daily grind...always searching for the right situations. It takes tremendous discipline and understanding to handicap 100 games and not bet on one of them.

How can somebody look at a card for 15 minutes, make plays on 7 games, and expect that they will be a winner? How can anybody call that a long term winning strategy?

Sports investing is not like the stock market. There is not one place you can put all of your money in the hopes of long term sustainable growth. Why?....Because of the ever changing "line". Hence, my opening paragraph about long term line value.....there just is no such thing. It's not tangible.

Keep playing 7 games a day. I like going out to Vegas twice a year.

43,000 posts and you don't have the energy to debate?

Why have 43,000 posts when you can get your point across in 43?

Patience, tremendous dedication, and a thorough understanding of your craft. That's how you become a successful gambler.

Risk 5000 units to win 200? Is that a long term sustainable business model? Maybe, but it's not the kind of risk an intelligent person might take.

 

 

 

Why have 43,000 posts when you can get your point across in 43?

For the life of me where did this guy come from and what the hell exactly is he trying to say?????

takes one sweep of the board, and right now the sweeps are on the wrong side..please bring back morgan freeman...

how bout a couple of parlays to double the unit wins?

so they say, really

parlays are for profit my man

I'll be here to back up up either way...

 

I'm not sure if Covers has a record for most dumb posts in a day but I'm sure you're coming close.

ouch game, looked like yesterday was another rough one...... my best advice, take a day or two off and hopefully u get urself back into the groove.

Keep grinding Game.  You'll work your way out.

Sorry, you have it all wrong.  I cant even debate the substance because you have the premise all wrong - you clearly have a lack of understanding of probability, variance, and what it means to get an edge in a line.  I would have to teach you the basics before I could debate you because you have gone down a road that is akin to unicornland.

But since you are able to "hit and run" with such a high degree of precision and success, you should have a very bright future.

43,000 posts - in my earlier days here I would debate all comers - so if you search you will find a ton (too much) that I have written on the subject.  What I am saying is that you are not worth repeating it for the 100th time.  Even though you think you are saying something revolutionary and have a ton to teach us all - TRUST ME - I have heard your speech a million times here....

Look JoeD - read what thechiefactuary wrote above.  He had the energy to debate some of your points.  Ditto.

I love this one the most....

"The only way to minimize juice is by shopping around"??? So if I shop around for juice, it's going to get lower? What a ridiculous statement. Have you ever heard of a run line? Correct me if I'm wrong Chief, but if you are willing to offer up 1/2 a run, 1 run, or even 1 1/2 runs......doesn't the juice go down? Wow, smaller juice without shopping....a miracle.

Actuary = number crunching moron with no common sense.

Thats a gem.  And that is the whole reason I wont enter a debate with you.  Anyone who would post the above statement with such conviction is totally unaware of their own ignorance.

That's funny

Can we kill this thread ???

Feel free to hit the kill button. It's looks like other posts.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=100747345

This sounds like INDIAN COWBOY....  YEEEEEE  HHAAAAWWWWW...

the title of this thread should have been:

"Gamehunter's Monday MLB picks followed by a 2 day long contest to see who can make the most unbelievably idiotic, absurd, and retarded statement about how betting on baseball works and how to be successful at it"

wow i dont think i have ever read so many misinformed foolish posts about what GH needs to do and how he should really approach betting MLB as i have read in this thread.... there really should be a system at covers.com where each post has to go thru some sort of idiot proof filtering device before it makes it onto the final thread because it would cut this one down by about 94%

just let the fucking guy cap games as he always has...since hes done it better than anyone over the last 3+ years combined

oh and by the way i dont know if anyone else has noticed this or if they sell calendars in other parts of the country but last time i checked its mid MAY...MAY...not august or september, but MAY...there is 75% of games if not a little more left on each teams schedule and you people act like GH lost 700 units this season and its all over

P.S. : if anyone on this thread is as great at betting MLB as they say they are they wouldnt be posting in this thread, because they would have enough money to find something better to do with their time but i forgot everyones an expert, ill be the first to say that im a losing sportsbettor and I have been ever since i started...I won over the entire season last MLB but that was my first ever and every other sport ive lost on over the course of the season

I think GH is one of the best cappers on the board. I always check his picks and struggling is just something that happens in doing this. I went thru a horrific stretch last month in baseball where nothing seemed to go my way. Now things have turned around....I know he'll get it back.

uhhhhh ya sorry blakejeff i dont think u quite understand...this thread is for useless and absurd comments only...not your logical and honest opinions

you're supposed to say things like this:    "hey GH ur the worst capper ever i lost my entire bankroll and my childrens college fund parlaying 4 of your games last nite i cant believe i didnt fade you like my "friend" told me to, you dont know anything about gambling why dont you take some time off and never bet underdogs again because they dont ever win, at least not more than 3 on the same nite, gamblings all about shopping around for juice, if you actually look at gamehunters record backwards hes doing pretty good this year, but since bet on the nationals on the road against the cardinals he must have no clue what he is doing, i told him to stay away from the dodgers because they are hot, how could you have gotten such a good line on the royals my line i locked in was nowhere near that good, i never lose over the course of 3 or 4 days because i have a super mathematical system that i use only for baseball so im never wrong"

Or how about my favorite:
GH: If you're into value: Why would you bet the Money Line on any favorites when the Run Line just pays so off much better?!?!

mjt you got most of them man, that was solid ... too funny 

...you missed one of the most oft heard complaints though: "nobody who plays that many games can possibly be a long term winner" ... other than that you pretty much summed it up. 

Roused,

This is a good suggestion because analysis not only helps the one following to learn how to handicap, but it also helps the handicapper to better organize and structure his thoughts.  The main purpose posting here should be to help others by sharing your ideas and then weighing the responses both pro and con. 

So you're right, not having an opinion and just blindly tailing can result in bad advice. It can also be very hazardous to your bankroll and it usually isn't too long before you don't have one especialy if you lack self control.  Unfortunately, there aren't too many handicappers who are willing to share their time and expertise in detail for free and then if they lose, they not only lose their money but have to put up with the garbage that a few here give them. 

Most here don't do this, but the few that do often spoil it for everyone else especialy those guys like GH and Mr Bator, who have forgotten what the majority know on sports!. Sorry for going on the lrant, but I also hope to see GH bounce back with a few short writeups in the near future because he is one of the best here  

yes thats another one of my favorites...i love it when people say that u cant win betting a ton of games...yet if a winning capper can hit 52.4% consistently then they might as well bet the maximum number of games that they possibly can (assuming they hit that % or higher), and with extensive knowledge of GHs philosophy and how he plays it definitely benefits him to play as many games as he feels he finds value in (seeing as how his average play over the course of the season is around a price of +110, and i believe at that price you only need to hit about 47-48% to win)

i mean ask youself this (to all you idiots out there claiming he should only play a game or two a nite):  would you rather bet 50 mlb games over the course of the season at 100 bux a piece and go 50-0 or would you rather bet 700 games and go 385-315, assuming that the average juice is around +110 or lets just even money?