MLB - Monday 5/17

you must be a chef because to the average joe

This is really a strange collection of misfits. Generally speaking, criticism is for losers and praise is for winners. Yet, for some reason, people on here can't seem to understand that concept.

Gambling just magnifies the comments. A losing gambler gets harsher criticism and a winning gambler gets higher praise.

What is really baffling to me is that so many people drink the kool-aid.

So many people have applauded the GH "manifesto" from the beginning of the season as the best thread they have ever read, etc...

I'm paraphrasing here, but this is the post where he told everyone willing to read it that he has every expectation that he will probably lose more games than he wins, but will be plus units due to lines he plays.

He will probably lose more games than he wins.

He will probably lose more games than he wins.

That is when I quit reading

Is that "handicapping"?

Picking 7 games knowing that you only have to win 3 games to eke out a split? Is that really the best way to utilize your knowledge of baseball?

Call me crazy, but as a baseball handicapper, I look for favorable match-ups and risk money on situations where I have a strong indication that I have the winner!

I realize this may seem nutty to the readers of this thread, but I have not bet on the Astros this year. In my humble opinion, they have the worst roster in the game, especially in the beginning of the season. I've looked at them every day and can not see myself ever betting on them, regardless of the line.

Does that make me a fool? Apologies to the kool-aid drinkers, but when I handicap a game and can not make an argument for the Astros.....I am just not foolish enough to be sucked into betting on them because there is "value" in the line of +160!

Read...don't read....Bash...don't bash.....criticize.....praise....whatever. The smart people can gloss over the nonsense. What's important is picking winners. That's all that matters.

Team totals, over/unders, run lines....there are a ton of ways to win at baseball without having to lay huge amounts of juice. In my humble opinion, there are many ways to "handicap" a game and a multitude of ways to win money.

Being lured into betting on the weaker team because there is perceived "value" in a large line is not, in my estimation, the wisest choice and/or the best way to utilize your working knowledge of baseball.

Sure, I respect Gamehunters knowledge of baseball. I just think he is not using that knowledge in the best ways possible. 

What flavor is the kool-aid today?

Good luck out there!

Joe D. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is going to sound bad but this losing percentage is actually impressive.  I mean to be on the wrong side swept 2 days and 1-7 another?

times change, dogs are taking a beating

There is so much fail with this post I don't even know where to begin.

The betting line is a probability.  If a team is +150, the line is telling us they're supposed to win 40% of the time.  If GH thinks the team is going to win 45% of the time and he's correct he's going to make money.  But guess what, he's going to lose 55% of the time.  Thus he will lose more games than he wins.  Is is that difficult of a concept?  Looking at his daily plays he plays mostly dogs meaning he's likely to lose more than he wins.

Then go ahead and bet the -300 teams every day.  You sure will feel like a "winner".  Problem is just don't bother to ever look at your bankroll and be ready to re-load quite often because they're likely not going to win as much as you need them to to be profitable.

I'm hoping this is hyperbole, but if not you should probably just quit gambling now.  Not willing to bet them at any price is akin to willing to bet against them at any price.  How about you offer me +250 every day and I will blindly take the Astros every single day?

Yes.

Wrong again.  What matters is the price.  Two people can be on the very same team the very same day but if one was able to grab the team at 10c better than the other, the smarter shopper is likely to be a long-term winner and the other a long-term loser.  Always grabbing your team at the best price is the easiest way to win.  Wins and Losses will come and go but the guy getting his team at a "discount" every time will be the ones able to play the game forever.

Do you even realize what juice is?  Juice is the house's percentage for being willing to accept either side of the bet.  The only way to minimize it is by shopping around.  The Team Totals market etc has MORE juice because the market isn't as liquid and thus the house has to transfer the risk more.

That is not just the wisest way, it's the only way.

The lesson, as always, is don't argue with an Actuary on the topic of probability.

"The betting line is a probability"??? Seriously? And you are spouting off in a gamblers forum?

Stick to accounting Chief, you are clueless when it comes to gambling.

"The only way to minimize juice is by shopping around"??? So if I shop around for juice, it's going to get lower? What a ridiculous statement. Have you ever heard of a run line? Correct me if I'm wrong Chief, but if you are willing to offer up 1/2 a run, 1 run, or even 1 1/2 runs......doesn't the juice go down? Wow, smaller juice without shopping....a miracle.

Actuary = number crunching moron with no common sense.

"Not willing to bet them at any price is akin to willing to bet against them at any price"??? Another ridiculous statement, spoken like a true bookies dream. Ever seen a number on a game that didn't make sense, a number that defied logic? Let me guess, you jump all over those games? Thought so.

It's not about winners, what matters is price.??????

Did you actually just say that? Did you freakin' actually just say that in a gamblers forum? Did you actually say that getting a ten cent line bump can make sure that you can play the game forever?

Please PM me! My bookie will give me ten grand to land you as a client. If you assure him that you will play just 5 games a day he will gladly give you ten cents a game forever.

 

This is some funny shit!!!  See that GH still hasnt gotten it together...  GH is just horrible right now...I am sure he would agree...

Elio I wish you would listen to me and stop playing his picks...He will not come around for a long time if he ever does... I know its hard b/c you think that if you miss a day you might miss going 7-0,8-0,etc.  GH plays way too many games for anyone to be up..I have no clue how he did it 2-3 years ago... CUT your losses now and move on this guy cannot pick a game... I am so glad I stopped following him a couple weeks ago..You can probally throw darts at a board and have a better record than GH..

Dude, anyone with half a brain already knows that you're a moron. Stop now while you still have an ounce of dignity (if it's not already too late).

KC + 121 ? I have them as favorites

thats yesterdays line

Dude,wake up..it's tomorrow already!

 

Wow. The job of an educator is never done. Add Livan to the list.

I would type slower if I thought it could help.

Winners , winners, winners.

If you can read without moving your lips (a crazy assumption I'm sure), you will notice that I did not advocate laying huge numbers or betting multi-way parlays.

I think it's important to note that if GH had bet the exact opposite on every game this year, he would still come out a loser.

I can sense your wheels spinning...take some deep breaths and read it again.....yeah, that's right.

Weird, huh? Think that maybe there's something going on here? Maybe the only guys making money in this bizarro world are the bookies?

Let it sink in....that's right......give it some thought......keep workin'....here it comes......and YEAH, there it is......maybe there's another way to make money betting on baseball!

Can this be true? An amazing baseball mind like Gamehunter is down thirty units so far and if he bet the exact opposite on every game, he would be a loser also. Hmmmm.....can that be right??

If that's the case, then maybe it's time to re-think this strategy.

Hey Livan, make a copy of this, put it in your pocket and read it over and over between the comics and cartoons. Read it while you're on the bus and read it while you're on break at Burger King. Look up the big words if you have to, and then do your best to come up with your own conclusions and ideas instead of just commenting about somebody else.

The purpose of this is to enlighten. There are better ways to invest your money than multiple underdogs in baseball. Look at the whole board. Vegas is all about enticement. Bettors are always falling for those enticements.....don't let them suck you in.

Large underdogs are incredibly enticing....and incredibly profitable for Vegas. Look deeper, study more, open your mind to other possibilities. There is a ton of value in other places.

 

fuck everyone keep posting

why are you still here? why are not a gazillionaire with your own private island? well it seems to me you are doing something wrong as well

I have read every word you have posted in this thread - and disagree with everything you have posted.

You are not a longterm winning gambler.  That is a winner for sure.

Anything today?

Some of the shit people post on this thread is like nothing I have ever seen or heard before. There are a few useful comments but
most of the stuff falls short and simply lacks credibility.

I will say that there are less straight out haters and vindictive bashers than there use ot be (Thanks Covers!).

BOL GH!

What is a long term winning gambler?

Is GH a long term winning gambler? Is a year a long term? Is 1000 games long term? 

If Johnny bets the entire football season, $100 a game for over a thousand games and ends up down $4800 for the season, but bets $5000 on the Super Bowl and wins it......is he a longterm winner?

You disagree with everything I have posted...but offer nothing in return. Know this.....if you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem.

Back up your words with facts. Have a spine.

Come strong to the hoop or don't come at all.

Life's too short to deal with pussies.

JoeD:

You just called out Vanzack?
You have no idea what you are in for now..

What is a long term winning gambler?  Someone that has the opposite view of you - short term winners are not as important as longterm line value.  Someone that has a sustainable, comprehensive, tangible longterm model.

Is GH a long term winning gambler? Is a year a long term? Is 1000 games long term?  Longerm is years.  I - personally - have watched him win here for 3 years.  So it depends on how you look at it - this year down 40 units - last 3 years up 200 units (estimates).  Lonterm is  a model that is sustainable.  "Concentrating on winners" is not sustainable.

If Johnny bets the entire football season, $100 a game for over a thousand games and ends up down $4800 for the season, but bets $5000 on the Super Bowl and wins it......is he a longterm winner?  No.  It is not sustainable.

You disagree with everything I have posted...but offer nothing in return. Know this.....if you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem.  I have written volumes here bud.  I dont have the energy to debate you personally, when I have already successfully beat down hundreds like you.  Same subject, different moron.

Back up your words with facts. Have a spine.

Come strong to the hoop or don't come at all.

Life's too short to deal with pussies.

Super. 

It's easy to criticize when someone isn't doing well.  In gambling, a strong consistent track record is very impressive.  GH has that here.  I haven't seen you in the past cpl of years here criticizing his style, and that's because it has been working and winning.  But the second he goes through a very bad streak, you waste no time jumping on his back and criticizing the way he pick games.  Where are your picks ?

You're purpose is to enlighten?  Joke.  Since he's been here he's been up over 200 units, give or take.  If you bet 100 a game and have been tailing him, that's a 20,000 profit.  I understand most people (including myself) haven't been tailing him since then, and most people bet with money they don't have.. So when he does lose, you get an entire army of grown men bitching. 

Good luck man. Vanzack will eat you alive.

Gambling forums are no different than real life guys. I saw posts last night saying Griffey needs to retire. But were they saying that years ago when he was blasting HR's? Oh course not

People in general are selfish-impatient-unappreciative characters. They live for now and don't appreciate yesterday. Gamehunter has done an amazing job the last few years. But its just common sense for him and everyone to expect people to bitch and complain about this season.

Happens all of the time in sports... in life...why doesn't everyone expect it here?

Don't get me wrong...I don't think its right....but it is the way things are.

I'm sure Gamehunter couldn't care less about the complainers. For anyone who places his/hers own wagers ...your #1 priority is yourself.  Everybody else and everythign else is 2nd.

Good luck Game