May 6 Mariners vs Rangers

'08 Season Record      11-10-2

Units                          +2.21

Average Pric e             +114

Monday                       no play

 

ponson vs batista today.  don't let the aruban's era fool you, he allowed 4 unearned runs in his first start of the season.  batista bounced back nicely in his last start after leaving his previous start early after facing just 10 batters.  batista went 7 solid ininngs, allowing just 4 hits and a run last week in cleveland.

 

looking at batista last season

after may 17:  26 games, 13-8 rec, 16-10 team rec, 3.62 era, .263 opp avg

before may 17:  7 starts,  3-3 rec, 4-3 team rec, 6.98 era, .323 opp avg

 

batista's last gs and his performance in 07 after the first month give me pause in jumping on the rangers at +140 today.  however, while the final score indicates the mariners bats woke up yesterday, a closer look reveals they scored 7 runs on 9 hits in the first 3 innings, then could only manage a single hit in 5 innings vs the texas bullpen.  4 of the runs came on hr's by sexson and balentien.  i think yesterday's game falls intto the category of "every team wins 54, and every team loses 54" and not the "other 54 category".   incidently, jarrod washburn almost always wins that type of game, it's the other 54 that he usually comes up just short in.

 

m's face another righty today, and i'm not ready to pronounce the offense cured just yet.  thus, i will not be considering the mariners ML or RL at all.  the rangers pen has now put together 5 straight solid games.  that may help motivate me to back the dog, not sure yet.  the problem i'm having is . . . .can you back ponson off two starts against a professional pitcher on the road at +140.  are you getting decent value there ?  i'm leaning towards taking a wait and see approach with ponson.

 

rangers get hamilton back in the lineup tonight, while the mariners will likely keep the starting nine the same.