Posted:
#1
I took Derby weekend off and got too busy to get back into the baseball game.
I was expecting a lower price to back the Rangers in tonight's tilt, and I was also expecting a lower total tonight. But alas, it will cost nearly -200 to back the TEX ML, and +105 on the RL, and the total is set to 10.5
I figured Millwood's stellar performance on the mound lately would offer some value to back the over or Texas.
I'm not touching this total, nor will I be backing the Mariners tonight.
It will be
Texas RL +105
Texas -2.5 at +168
Texas -0.5 in the first five at -135
Millwood will not sustain his recent run of good luck. It may not end tonight, but no one can maintain a BABIP of .143 for very long. Eventually those batted balls find holes in the defense.
Its real tough to consider an "over" play with a total this high, especially when Holland has been known to dominate the Mariners. And the under concerns me as well, i dont have a strong angle either way. If anything, I would have to bank on Millwood regressing to the mean, but not too much so the Rangers post a crooked number in multiple innings.
The Mariners play enough close games to make me think the 2.5 RL is not a wise play, even though i get rewarded with +168. With their bullpen woes, I can also see a late texas win even if millwood is good, i might prefer the first five -0.5 line for the Rangers, even though it will cost me 35 cents to back it.
I was expecting a lower price to back the Rangers in tonight's tilt, and I was also expecting a lower total tonight. But alas, it will cost nearly -200 to back the TEX ML, and +105 on the RL, and the total is set to 10.5
I figured Millwood's stellar performance on the mound lately would offer some value to back the over or Texas.
I'm not touching this total, nor will I be backing the Mariners tonight.
It will be
Texas RL +105
Texas -2.5 at +168
Texas -0.5 in the first five at -135
Millwood will not sustain his recent run of good luck. It may not end tonight, but no one can maintain a BABIP of .143 for very long. Eventually those batted balls find holes in the defense.
Its real tough to consider an "over" play with a total this high, especially when Holland has been known to dominate the Mariners. And the under concerns me as well, i dont have a strong angle either way. If anything, I would have to bank on Millwood regressing to the mean, but not too much so the Rangers post a crooked number in multiple innings.
The Mariners play enough close games to make me think the 2.5 RL is not a wise play, even though i get rewarded with +168. With their bullpen woes, I can also see a late texas win even if millwood is good, i might prefer the first five -0.5 line for the Rangers, even though it will cost me 35 cents to back it.
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