Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners, 9/15/23

Tonight I'm on the Los Angeles Dodgers at -110 for 10 units.

1) In my opinion, the Dodgers are the second best team in baseball. Most power rankings agree with me, although some argue it's Baltimore. Regardless, only the Braves top LA offensively. The Dodgers on the season are hitting to a .257 AVG, .342 OBP, .458 SLG, and .800 OPS. The Mariners are middle of the pack at #14, with a .244 AVG, .323 OBP, .418 SLG, and .741 OPS.

2) What's interesting is the Dodgers offensive #'s are almost identical on the road and at home. However, the Mariners can't seem to hit in their home ballpark. When looking at just home numbers - they fall to #21, with a .239 AVG, .319 OBP, .408 SLG, and .727 OPS. Those are pretty horrendous and surprising #'s

3) Over the past 2 weeks, the Dodgers hold a 134 wRC+ against right handed pitching, slashing .288/.393/.461/.820. The Mariners (same time frame and also against right handed pitching) have a 109 wRC+ and are hitting .237/.307/.447/.726

4) In my opinion, the two starting pitchers (Bobby Miller and George Kirby) are wash statistically on the season. However, Kirby created some clubhouse controversy last week when he called out his manager for leaving him in the game too long. It's never a good idea to publicly call out your boss. It's a sign of disrespect and reflected poorly on Kirby. The two have said they hashed it out, but it has not been forgotten. When you do something like that, it creates negative energy and bad energy lingers. Personally, I think it will have an affect on both tonight, and it's just an unnecessary and unfortunate factor for Seattle.

5) In addition, Kirby hasn't been at his best lately. Over his past 4 starts, he's given up 15 runs and 27 hits across 21 innings. Miller hasn't exactly been lights out, but since the calendar turned to Aug, he's shown significant improvement and much more consistency. Since Aug 1st, he's pitched into the 6th inning in every game but 1 (7 total starts) with a 3.43 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

6) Over the course of the season, Seattle has had the stronger Bullpen. But, they're not pitching well lately. In September, they have a combined 4.84 ERA and an even worse 6.08 FIP. In the same time frame, the Dodgers Pen posted a 2.98 ERA and a 3.47 FIP. It makes me wonder if the Paul Sewald trade is catching up to them.

7) The Dodgers watched the Braves celebrate the NL EAST title a couple of nights ago. LA's magic number is down to 4 and they're chomping at the bit to be the 2nd team in MLB to clinch a division title. In addition, if someone (maybe the Dodgers) can knock off the Braves in the playoffs, their season record becomes very important. Trailing Baltimore by just a few games gives them plenty of motivation to keep winning.

8) This game is huge for Seattle. We all know about the AL West Standings as well as the tight Wildcard race. All the pressure is on them and against a loose and better team, I don't like their chances tonight.

Give me the LA Dodgers at -110 for 10 units.

BOL to everyone on all your plays.

Cheers,

Kaufee

@Kaufee

Great insight. GL 

@ndsent1

 Thanks ndsent to you as well

@Fuse

 Appreciate that Fuse!

I added one unit on LA -1 at +120. Looking at their history, they rarely win by 1 run. I like that +120 price and if they do win by one, I'll get my $ back.

Updated Wager:

10 Units on the Dodger ML at -110 and 1 unit at -1 (+120)

Good luck Kaufee! 

@Flyguy1700

 Thanks Flyguy! Cheers Bud

Excellent analysis, my man! The Mariners have not been playing great of late to compound matters. Add in the negativity surrounding Kirby, the pressure to make the playoffs, and facing one of the best teams in the league. I love the play! Let's go Dodgers!!

@Kaufee

@kmoney89

 Thanks Kmoney! Let's take that edge and we'll live with the results! I love that line and superstitiously feel like I have to say it to you

@FelixFermin21

 Thanks Felix! BOL to you

@Kaufee

 I love it! It came to mind then and felt like the right thing to say considering were gambling! Cheers pal 

Kaufee Man!

@Kaufee

 Good points & nice writeup. Only thing that scares me is just how much better Kirby as been at home than on the road. Staying away but good luck! 

@BlackwaterOP

 Cheers BWOP! Bol to you

@cashin

Thanks Cashin. While it is true that Kirby has good splits at home. It’s important to note that most of that was accomplished in the first half of the season. He hasn’t been nearly as good post all star game. I tend to give recent play more importance. But valid point nonetheless. BOL to you! 

@Kaufee

Well, he's only given up 1 earned run in his last 3 (21 innings) since the break, but hasn't been at home in awhile & has been lackluster at best lately. Hope you hit it...should be a tight one.

@cashin

Okay fair point. He is def a better pitcher at home. But you left out the home outing before those 3, when he got rocked for 6 earned runs by the Tigers. And yes, he hasn't pitched at home in over a month... a month in which he's pitched poorly.

I wouldn't be totally surprised to see him have a decent outing. After all, he is an all star. But I would be surprised to see Seattle put up more runs against Miller than LA vs Kirby. LA has the 2nd best offense in MLB (3rd on the road), while Seattle is ranked 14th (and 21st at home).

Always appreciate a little devil's advocate. Thanks Cashin.

Like it kaufee   Will definitely be a play later for sure!

@Kaufee

@Brooklyncapper

 Nice to see you on it, BC!

Lots of good info BOL to you tonight!  

@Jars

 Thank you Jars! BOL to you as well!

was already all over the dodgers here,glad to see you are too. GL