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How do you Cap Baseball?

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Leafs1967

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2002

Posts: 1343

Posted: Feb. 8, 2008 - 10:44 PM ET #26

Participlte in a Fantasy Baseball league

I personally belive this gives you a great insite into players, teams, stats and trends

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andarmac99

MVP

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 16954

Posted: Feb. 8, 2008 - 10:57 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by Leafs1967:

Participlte in a Fantasy Baseball league

I personally belive this gives you a great insite into players, teams, stats and trends

I agree. I'd recommend Baseball Challenge on ESPN.com, it's not like a regular fantasy league and the scoring, especially for the pitching staffs is quite unique. Every day you have to set a lineup for the next day. The scoring is set up in 3 ways. Total 1st half points, 2nd half points and Total season points. The prizes aren't bad either. Last year the winner got an all expense paid trip for 2 or 4 I forget to this years All Star Game at Yankee Stadium. But my point is that you have to set a lineup everyday with a C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, DH and Pitching Staff. There is also an abundance of stats avaliable and after a month or so you pick up most of the trends and know all the splits and stuff, it definetely helps with capping.

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jayrbooth

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 505

Posted: Feb. 9, 2008 - 12:35 AM ET #28

Sweet. Ya right now i do a few yahoo pools every year. Always good for some extra fun.

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griller

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 2744

Posted: Feb. 9, 2008 - 12:44 AM ET #29

but u gotta be good ... and like being nervous

Yeah, too true. Baseball is streaky--for teams, pitchers, batters and bettors. Face it, you're going to run through winning and losing streaks during the course of the season. So don't get too emotionally high or low. Lose five in a row? Don't worry and don't chase. You're likely to win nine of the next 10. Bet the same amount on every game. If you stick to betting just the dogs, you can expect a positive cash flow with a winning percentage as low as 46%.

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Beningo88

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 23474

Posted: Feb. 9, 2008 - 1:05 AM ET #30

A ton of great advice, but I also look at how teams are playing especially when looking for dogs. A hot crappy team is something I look for. Pitching trumps all imo when looking at most games.

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jayrbooth

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 505

Posted: Feb. 9, 2008 - 1:32 PM ET #31

Ya griller made a good point i want to bring up. Over the course of the season how do you bet the games. Is it a constant size bet for all plays or like other sports do your bet sizes vary from game to game.

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MuEagles79

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2006

Posts: 3286

Posted: Feb. 9, 2008 - 1:39 PM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by jayrbooth:

Ya griller made a good point i want to bring up. Over the course of the season how do you bet the games. Is it a constant size bet for all plays or like other sports do your bet sizes vary from game to game.

flat bet flat bet flat bet....you will get killed if you try to vary the size of your bets depending on "confidence"

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jayrbooth

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 505

Posted: Feb. 9, 2008 - 1:54 PM ET #33

See i didnt do that last year and somehow still managed to show a small profit iun my first year capping baseball. I had a standard bet i used for most games but increased it for the odd game i really liked and also had a lower bet i used if for totals sometimes as i am newer to total betting.

Cool. That tip helps for sure. Thanks.

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griller

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 2744

Posted: Feb. 9, 2008 - 1:59 PM ET #34

I saw much-revered cappers on this forum last year rolling out 5-to-10 plays all with a big range of "units" they were betting on different games. Personally, I didn't get it."The Yankees -250 against the Rockies at Coors Field is a 10 unit bet!" Boy, I laughed all the way to payout window when I saw that shit on some threads. Of course, some of those cappers just crave the attention and who knows what they're really doing with their money?

But, hey, I assume you're betting with your own money and that it's not Monopoly money.

So here are the numbers: NBA and NFL Favorites win well over 60% of games and College Football and Basketball Favorites win over 70% of the time, MLB Favorites only win 56% of the time.

So essentially, no one MLB wager is significantly better than another. Statistically, it's not a helluva lot better than flipping a coin, except that you have the matchups, splits, injuries, motivational and situational analysis that provide the gambler's edge.

The cautious bettor should establish a basic unit play based on the size of your bankroll, and play that amount game in and game out without variation. It's a tough rule to follow, but with over 2,400 games to play you can burn up your bank before the All-Star break if you don't have discipline.

Of course, if you're turning a profit and your bankroll grows, you can size up the amount of your basic unit play.

But I think playing six games on any given day with unit sizes varying from 1 to 10 is just asking for trouble. Of course, this is just my opinion. I'm sure others will disagree.

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jayrbooth

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 505

Posted: Feb. 9, 2008 - 3:18 PM ET #35

Great Post. I love your thinking and will definitely be doing a set bet size to start the year. For the most part i did that last year but "for some some reason" felt obligated to almost choose my top plays of the day anhd increase the bet amount.

I agree with the vast amount of games to play poor money management is a killer. I guess by having a set bet amount all season it comes down to your capping skills and your ability to hit more wins than losses. I know from experience nothing sucks more than hitting 4 of 7 games but losing money on the day because your big plays lost and small plays won.

Great discussion guys. I cant believe i have almost 2 months to wait. HAHAHA.

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Blue_Chip

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 874

Posted: Feb. 10, 2008 - 7:28 PM ET #36

Baseball is streaky--for teams, pitchers, batters and bettors. Face it, you're going to run through winning and losing streaks during the course of the season. So don't get too emotionally high or low. Lose five in a row? Don't worry and don't chase. You're likely to win nine of the next 10.

Man, is that the truth, griller! I went back and looked at my spreadsheet from last year... I had five separate 7+ game streaks of winning/losing. In the end, the season was a profitable venture and that's what counts.

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newb411breaker

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 3

Posted: Feb. 10, 2008 - 9:17 PM ET #37

first, I would recommend you reading "betting baseball" by michael murray. As far as handicapping goes, it's probably the best book out there.

For unit sizing, assuming the edges are equal, I play to win one unit on each bet. So I'll lay 2.0 units to win 1 unit on a -200 fav and I'll bet .66 units to win 1 unit on a dog of +150.

There is a free baseball database one can get from the website www.baseball1.com. I personally use this data for making offensive power ratings on every lineup and use the data to calculate things like theoretical pitcher eras, such as dips.

The biggest mistake i see consistently is when people want to bet a big favorite (say -235) because it seems like easy money, but since they don't want to lay the juice they say, i'll just play them

-1.5 runs so i don't have to lay all the juice.

Ideally it is best to stick to moneylines as the house edge tends to be smaller than 20 cent runlines

good luck

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atlheatholder

Captain

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 5827

Posted: Feb. 10, 2008 - 10:28 PM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by newb411breaker:

first, I would recommend you reading "betting baseball" by michael murray. As far as handicapping goes, it's probably the best book out there.

For unit sizing, assuming the edges are equal, I play to win one unit on each bet. So I'll lay 2.0 units to win 1 unit on a -200 fav and I'll bet .66 units to win 1 unit on a dog of +150.

There is a free baseball database one can get from the website www.baseball1.com. I personally use this data for making offensive power ratings on every lineup and use the data to calculate things like theoretical pitcher eras, such as dips.

The biggest mistake i see consistently is when people want to bet a big favorite (say -235) because it seems like easy money, but since they don't want to lay the juice they say, i'll just play them

-1.5 runs so i don't have to lay all the juice.

Ideally it is best to stick to moneylines as the house edge tends to be smaller than 20 cent runlines

good luck

No, No, No!!! Don't buy that book!!! M. Murray's "Journal" of the 2007 season has a few tidbits (field locations and positions ie NWSE) but most of it is his weekly wagering info of how many units he's up or down and what he needs to do to get on track.

Here's what I look at for each game:

SP ERA last 3 - Bullpen ERA last 3 - SP pitch count last 3 - SP Inn. last 3 - SP K/BB ratio - SP WHIP - Is SP finesse/power pitcher - How does SP fare against LHB/RHB - Team Home/Away record - Day/Night record - 1 run games w/l - 2+ run games w/l - team BA vs. LHP - team BA vs. RHP - team OBP last 3 - runners stranded last 3 - hitter/pitcher friendly park - streaks - injuries - slumps - trades - coaching changes - rivalry - depth charts - umpire o/u - temp - wind and direction - humidity

After I've went through those factors, I then make my decision and place my wager.

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KOAJ

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 66698

Posted: Feb. 11, 2008 - 6:28 AM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by MuEagles79:

didn't you also have the rule of no betting on the NL as well since there really isn't too much value there and the unpredictability of it is impossible to cap?

agree with everyone above that Bullpen is crucial to know about....can't tell you the amount of games I won/lost last season in the 6th & 7th innings

correct...you have the Mets and everyone else is a .500 team

the managers have TOO MUCH influence on the games in the NL

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gman1962

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 2856

Posted: Feb. 11, 2008 - 10:50 AM ET #40

Bet teams that are on win streaks of three or more.....fade teams that are on losing streaks of three or more.

it's quick, it's easy and you don't have to over think every game.

gl

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Europa

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 42643

Posted: Feb. 11, 2008 - 11:03 AM ET #41

Quote Originally Posted by gman1962:

Bet teams that are on win streaks of three or more.....fade teams that are on losing streaks of three or more.

it's quick, it's easy and you don't have to over think every game.

gl

piggyback for how long, when to jump off? Thanks.

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KOAJ

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 66698

Posted: Feb. 11, 2008 - 11:17 AM ET #42

europa - until they lose

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Europa

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 42643

Posted: Feb. 11, 2008 - 11:33 AM ET #43

KOAJ, it's tough to jump on that -265 price tag bandwagon even it's Josh Beckett or Jake Peavyon the mound.

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KOAJ

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 66698

Posted: Feb. 11, 2008 - 12:14 PM ET #44

i dont bet streaks...i will factor it into what i do but wont bet one blindly

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newb411breaker

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 3

Posted: Feb. 11, 2008 - 2:22 PM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by atlheatholder:

No, No, No!!! Don't buy that book!!! M. Murray's "Journal" of the 2007 season has a few tidbits (field locations and positions ie NWSE) but most of it is his weekly wagering info of how many units he's up or down and what he needs to do to get on track.

Here's what I look at for each game:

SP ERA last 3 - Bullpen ERA last 3 - SP pitch count last 3 - SP Inn. last 3 - SP K/BB ratio - SP WHIP - Is SP finesse/power pitcher - How does SP fare against LHB/RHB - Team Home/Away record - Day/Night record - 1 run games w/l - 2+ run games w/l - team BA vs. LHP - team BA vs. RHP - team OBP last 3 - runners stranded last 3 - hitter/pitcher friendly park - streaks - injuries - slumps - trades - coaching changes - rivalry - depth charts - umpire o/u - temp - wind and direction - humidity

After I've went through those factors, I then make my decision and place my wager.

I bought the 2006 edition and I thought there was a lot of useful information, learning about how to make offensive power ratings and using various theoretical eras as well as umpire information

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jayrbooth

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 505

Posted: Feb. 11, 2008 - 5:05 PM ET #46

So how do you guys play large juice favorites or Run Lines...if at all?

Just curious as guys like Beckett and Santana will flirt with that (-170)+ all season. I dont play games larger than that ever unless it's as a Run Line to lower the vig. Thoughts/advice?

Should i just ignore games like that or can they be profitable?

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3825

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 8922

Posted: Feb. 11, 2008 - 7:42 PM ET #47

2007 was my first season of playing the entire (or most of it) with the necessary discipline to be successful in the long run.

i was more successfull after the break, i didn't post picks prior to m's-a's series right before the break, but one look at my early season report and i can see than i barely treaded water before the break, july and august were good. for me it was mainly a result of fine tuning my strategy and staying on the porch when i didn't find the price i was looking for. In addition, i stopped playing other MLB games, and just stuck to the mariners. i have the time to do my style of research on a single game per day, i was short changing myself whenever i went elsewhere. my goal for 2007, was to develop a handicapping style, and implement it, and get a positive return on my investment.

my style is . . . .

rarely played ML favorites greater than -120, highest was in -130 range

played more ML dogs than favs, played as high as +190

played a single total at -120 (lost), just a few at -115, almost all total plays were -110 or better

played a few run lines, felt i had a positive return there,

tended to focus on totals when i did not like the ML dog, except for a few RL plays pon the fav.

m's were ML dogs often this summer, got to be habit forming, didn't latch onto the Opp ML dog prices earlier enough in sept.

was close to break even in september.

stuck to my guns on the prices

never stand in front of an oncoming train or a baseball streak

would occasionally bet my gut feeling, or layoff a play for the same reason. i felt that that was a reasonable approach due to the shear volume of mariners games i watched this season.

i looked for reasons to play or avoid the four primary choices, i rarely had a pre-concieved notion going in, i kept an open mind, and often found myself going full circle.

in 2008, matchbook will be my new best friend, since the end of baseball i've averaged a price of +101 on all wagers, that was impacted by a few +130ish ML underdog plays in CFB, but even in CBB i was able to keep an average of -106, with more than half of my plays being totals or half wagers on sites other than matchbook. 1-2 cents juice on matchbook will substantially reduce my overall costs next baseball season. i'm hoping to average between +105 and +110 on baseball, the reduced juice will also me to play some teams in the -120ish range this season that would have been priced -130 to -140 last season.

not sure who started the thread, but vanzack and others had some great comments on handicapping vs reduced costs. i've found my niche in handicapping and i need large amounts of exposure to be successful, one look at my non-baseball record shows success on local cfb, seahawks, and pac-10 hoops. all are sports that i follow independent of handicapping. in looking at my record, i found weaknesses in my saturday's in pac-10 hoops when i had less time to digest the info and make choices. i'll continue to improve my handicappping, but with my style that will take time. i play mariners games because i watch 150ish games each season in their entirety. it would be a huge stretch to think i will be able to include any other teams unless i change my handicapping techniques. thus, i will focus on the prices i pay.

if i hit 55% on 100 plays at -110, i'll make 5.5 units of profit.

if i hit 55% on 100 plays at -101, i'll make 9.1 units of profit.

if i hit 55% on 100 plays at +105, i'll make 12.75 units of profit

it's much easier for me to reduce the costs, than it is for me to change my handicapping style. if i can get +105 as an average price, and i can hit 55%, 144 wagers will get me to the goal of 20 units won. i'm not sure if i can even milk 144 wagers from this season, but i know for sure that i can't get the 331 wagers needed if my average price is -110. and with my style, fewer games has consistently improved my win pct.