That is one of two reasons against futures, the other being, you are basically never offered true odds. Unless you think you know a hell of a lot more than oddsmakers a season in advance (and giving them months to prepare) it's a losing game.
Interesting. Somehow I seem to make thousand of $ on baseball futures year after year. Am I lucky or just an idiot?
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Quote Originally Posted by jlippens:
That is one of two reasons against futures, the other being, you are basically never offered true odds. Unless you think you know a hell of a lot more than oddsmakers a season in advance (and giving them months to prepare) it's a losing game.
Interesting. Somehow I seem to make thousand of $ on baseball futures year after year. Am I lucky or just an idiot?
You're telling the guy to hedge his bet by taking the Cards to NOT win the World Series? What will that price be, -1000? Before you start calling people idiots in a thread make sure you make a valid point yourself. I do believe some of the posters in this thread were a bit harsh, but it's pretty much impossible for him to place a worthy hedge bet at this moment. The Cards need to advance a round before it will be worthwhile for him to do any sort of hedge. Considering they will likely play Colorado in Rd 1, I like his chances to get to the NLCS - at least. From there things obviously get dicey.
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You're telling the guy to hedge his bet by taking the Cards to NOT win the World Series? What will that price be, -1000? Before you start calling people idiots in a thread make sure you make a valid point yourself. I do believe some of the posters in this thread were a bit harsh, but it's pretty much impossible for him to place a worthy hedge bet at this moment. The Cards need to advance a round before it will be worthwhile for him to do any sort of hedge. Considering they will likely play Colorado in Rd 1, I like his chances to get to the NLCS - at least. From there things obviously get dicey.
They match up well vs the Dodgers who lack pitching imo I would not hedge vs the dodgers in which the series would probably be a pick.
Their other possible first round matchup is vs the rockies (Rockies dodgers can't play each other, best record (eiether phills or cards will play the rockies). Rockies would probably be about +220 imo and I would lay 50 on the rockies in your positon.
Assuming they play the phillies in nlcs i assume the phillies would be anywhere from a -130 fav to a pick em. I like the cards here but I would probably bet 50-100 on the phils just to cover myself here.
If they make the world series I would take the al team for about 200 unless it is the yankees who may be an obscene favorite and wouldn't be deserving imo. I think the yanks would be around -220 to -250 and I think the true line should be around a pick em, STL is very very good and low scoring affairs favor them. Their lineup is solid especially with the addition of holliday, and their starters matchup with anyones, its just the bullpen I fear.
Of the 8 teams left I have them rated as such
1-2-3 Cards/Angels/Yanks in no particular order
4 phillies
5 Red sox
6 Twins/tigers
7 rockies
8 dodgers (lack of good starters is going to finally rear its ugly head when they face talented teams in the playoffs, imo billingsley is a bum and Kuroda is their only dependable arm.
Good luck with whatever you choose to do.
Personally I see a cards/ angels world series.
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They match up well vs the Dodgers who lack pitching imo I would not hedge vs the dodgers in which the series would probably be a pick.
Their other possible first round matchup is vs the rockies (Rockies dodgers can't play each other, best record (eiether phills or cards will play the rockies). Rockies would probably be about +220 imo and I would lay 50 on the rockies in your positon.
Assuming they play the phillies in nlcs i assume the phillies would be anywhere from a -130 fav to a pick em. I like the cards here but I would probably bet 50-100 on the phils just to cover myself here.
If they make the world series I would take the al team for about 200 unless it is the yankees who may be an obscene favorite and wouldn't be deserving imo. I think the yanks would be around -220 to -250 and I think the true line should be around a pick em, STL is very very good and low scoring affairs favor them. Their lineup is solid especially with the addition of holliday, and their starters matchup with anyones, its just the bullpen I fear.
Of the 8 teams left I have them rated as such
1-2-3 Cards/Angels/Yanks in no particular order
4 phillies
5 Red sox
6 Twins/tigers
7 rockies
8 dodgers (lack of good starters is going to finally rear its ugly head when they face talented teams in the playoffs, imo billingsley is a bum and Kuroda is their only dependable arm.
You're telling the guy to hedge his bet by taking the Cards to NOT win the World Series? What will that price be, -1000? Before you start calling people idiots in a thread make sure you make a valid point yourself. I do believe some of the posters in this thread were a bit harsh, but it's pretty much impossible for him to place a worthy hedge bet at this moment. The Cards need to advance a round before it will be worthwhile for him to do any sort of hedge. Considering they will likely play Colorado in Rd 1, I like his chances to get to the NLCS - at least. From there things obviously get dicey.
Your initial point was that it was impossible to hedge 7 teams, now you say that you don't like the price................................. The Cards will be about 5-1 to win the series. The NO is about -650. If you don't think that a +3900 bet can be hedged with a -650 you should stop betting because all you are doing is gambling. IF you can do the math, which is an open question, you'll see that the NO bet makes sense as opposed to the progression of series bets. It is also a commentary on you (and the rest of the thread) that the topic was not broached until page two. Again, you can make whatever claims you'd like, but I'll stand behind my futures performance, money management, and numerical capabilities.
Your final statement shows how uninformed you are. Why would the Cards face Colorado? If the season were to end today, they'd play LA. As you said, try to make valid points...........
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Quote Originally Posted by rzagza:
You're telling the guy to hedge his bet by taking the Cards to NOT win the World Series? What will that price be, -1000? Before you start calling people idiots in a thread make sure you make a valid point yourself. I do believe some of the posters in this thread were a bit harsh, but it's pretty much impossible for him to place a worthy hedge bet at this moment. The Cards need to advance a round before it will be worthwhile for him to do any sort of hedge. Considering they will likely play Colorado in Rd 1, I like his chances to get to the NLCS - at least. From there things obviously get dicey.
Your initial point was that it was impossible to hedge 7 teams, now you say that you don't like the price................................. The Cards will be about 5-1 to win the series. The NO is about -650. If you don't think that a +3900 bet can be hedged with a -650 you should stop betting because all you are doing is gambling. IF you can do the math, which is an open question, you'll see that the NO bet makes sense as opposed to the progression of series bets. It is also a commentary on you (and the rest of the thread) that the topic was not broached until page two. Again, you can make whatever claims you'd like, but I'll stand behind my futures performance, money management, and numerical capabilities.
Your final statement shows how uninformed you are. Why would the Cards face Colorado? If the season were to end today, they'd play LA. As you said, try to make valid points...........
Hi, at the beginning of the season I made a wager on the St. Louis Cardinals to win the world series. I wagered 25 dollars to win 975. Now the Cardinals are basically in the playoffs and I was wondering what the best way to hedge this bet. Any and all input and suggestions are welcome. Thank you.
its only $25 bucks dude. let it go and let it ride
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Quote Originally Posted by michaeljordan23:
Hi, at the beginning of the season I made a wager on the St. Louis Cardinals to win the world series. I wagered 25 dollars to win 975. Now the Cardinals are basically in the playoffs and I was wondering what the best way to hedge this bet. Any and all input and suggestions are welcome. Thank you.
its only $25 bucks dude. let it go and let it ride
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