Let me ask a dumb question.
If they are hitting 63% then you wouldn't want to lay -150?? is that right????
and do you take the dog if they are catching around +160 or so.
Yes, No, maybe????
The trend (and corresponding + units made) is independent of the line in the next game. You have to bet it no matter what the line is. You're going to get some good lines....and some really crappy ones. But if you're consistent in playing this angle, you have made money over the last 6 years.
If it so happens they would be dogs the next game. I would play them since you have a 63% chance of them winning getting plus money.
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You have to admit, getting + money on a bet that historically (for SIX years) has hit at 63% is pretty attractive. But there is no guarantee this isn't just dumb luck either....even for 6 years. I can't find any reason as to why this is such a strong trend. But the numbers say it is. Interesting stuff for sure.
I'm assuming you are an intelligent betor and never lay over -160 EVER. So I would hope you wouldn't of laid -244 the day before. Just wait for those big favorites to dump and play the next day at a lot less juice for a 63.5% of winning %. Like I said you rarely see back to back games of -200 jucie or more.
Good info.
I always look at these types of statistical trends and ask myself "Is there a logic as to why this is happening".
I realize that adds subjectivity to the equation - but patterns are always available in historical data that can be non-causation.
In this case - can you (or anyone) come up with possible reasons why this happens? Why a non-divisional team? Im not knocking it, just tyring to spark some discussion on whether this is causation (which would lead to a good betting angle) or just a random pattern in data.
Not a bad piece of info.
A six-year study of losing favorites of -200 or more show they have responded with a 514-295 record for a gain of 93.87 units in the next game, provided they are playing a non-divisional team. Bettors can tell from the gain of units, compared to the record, they will be again be laying some decent odds, but the risk has been worth it, as teams in this situation have won 63.5-percent of their games the next time out.
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