GiLz Thread'ers ((Tues. 8/30))

Well, Thread'ers... I sure am feelin' a little Philly today.

Bronson Arroyo enters today's game giving up the most HR's (34) in the majors + an ERA over 5 (5.02 - 5th worst in MLB) and he'll be facing a Phillies team who is in the top 5... wait....  sorry.

Bronson Arroyo faces a Phillies team who is in the top 10 in... wait a minute, sorry.... hmmm... yep, I am reading that correctly.... well, that's odd.

Bronson Arroyo faces a Phillies team who you would think is a top the leaderboard in Team Batting and ready to beat up on Bronson Arroyo... but check out where Philly stands in Team Batting (MLB/NL):

RUNS SCORED  =  13th MLB/7th NL  (587 runs)
BATTING AVG.  =  16th MLB/9th NL  (.254 avg)
HOME RUNS  =  16th MLB/8th NL  (125 HR's)
RUNS BATTED IN  =  11th MLB/6th NL  (572 RBI)
SLUGGING PCT.  =  15th MLB/7th NL  (.400 SLG)
OPS/On Base % + Slugging %  =  15th MLB/7th NL  (.724 OPS)

The Phillies rank no where in the Top 10 in the league in the greater stats for Team Batting and no where in the Top 5 in their own league, the National League.  They've been hit with some injuries @ times and short DL stints, and Philly does tend to rest of their marque players during day games, but to think of Philly you think of their pitching AND their phenomenal line-up,which now includes all-star energized Hunter Pence.  Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies... well, now, the Brewers enter the mix... but you think of those teams when you think about hitting.  Red Sox, Yankees, & Brewers rank in the Top 10 in all major team batting stats and they rank in the Top 5 in the own league.  But strange to think that the Phillies do not apply.

So, with all the statistical break downs, it look as if I'm ready to take the REDS on the +MONEY -vs- Roy Halladay and the Phillies . . .  right??

Not a friggin' chance.  Phillies all the friggin' way...


 Phillies RL @ -115  [4U]
Phillies ALT RL -2.5 @ +150  [4U]
 Phillies *TT OVER 4.5* @ -110  [4U]
Phillies/Reds *OVER 4* (1st 5) @ -110  [4U]
Phillies/Reds *OVER 8* (Game) @ +105  [4U]


Bronson Arroyo has been horrific in his career -vs- the Phillies, and he already got demolished once this year by the Phillies back on May 23rd.  Here's his stat line he received during Philly's demolition:
=  2.2IP, 10H, 9ER, 2HR, -0.35 WHIP

Not everyday you see somebody with a negative WHIP  -  only those who get lit up in only a couple innings of work, which happened back on the 23rd of May.

Now, here's Arroyo's career stats in 9 games -vs- the Phillies:
W-L:  1-6
ERA:  7.13
WHIP:  1.68
HR allowed:  10
IP average per start:  4.5
Opponent Batting AVG:  .324  (highest -vs- any team)
*BAbip:  .344  (highest -vs- any team)

*Definition of BAbip:
Batting Avg. on Balls in Plays (Hits - HR's)/(AB's - SO - HR + Sac Flies)

So, end result of my wagers shows me Being Philly Today. 

Historically, for me anyways, I have not faired well backing Roy Halladay on a -RL but today I feel extremely confident in my plays backing the Phillies w/their bats -vs- Arroyo and Halladay's pitching -vs- the Reds bats who've scored 5 runs 5 times their past 22 games.

Just a 'lil something new I'm trying w/detailed write-up on  WHY?  I'm taking xxxxxxxx team.   

I went 4-0 with the Royals yesterday sweeping the board  -  ML, ALT RL, TT OVER, OVER TOTAL . . . and that was the game I ended up working on the most yesterday morning.

Today, I've been workin' on the Reds/Phillies game.  Trying to determine why the oddsmakers want us to put our money on the OVER 8 with +money looking very appealing.  All numbers I broke down came to the conclusion of high scoring game... well above 8.  Which, in result, made me a little nervous.

So, I broke it down further, and came across some eye popping stats & situations that had me pretty darn ecstatic...

5 plays on 1 game is, well, the most you can pretty much do.  Will I be shocked if not 1 hits? Yea.  I would.  Normally I'd say I wouldn't be shocked at all.  But today, with this game, I'd be shocked if not at least 2, or even 3 of the 5 hit. 

We'll wait & see my dude.       

Let's GO Phillies! 

good luck buddy.

LVL 

Rush 2112  

JoshiQ 

Cap 

yogz 

Tin-skeeee! 

NGU 

Silverman 

DoublePsycho 

Fortmax 

BigEv 

Pucker 

    GiLz Thread'ers   

Thanx buddy.   

Phillies  [5 plays total]
=  see POST #56 on Page 3.   

FYI, you already have 8 units on Phi over for your 1st play, so you are making it into 12 units play? Wishing you a repeated "KC-type" performance today.

YES.  Thanks for bringing that up.   

Reds/Phillies *OVER 8* @ +105  [12U/$300]

Quote Originally Posted by GiLmo574:

Not a friggin' chance.  Phillies all the friggin' way...


 Phillies RL @ -115  [4U]
Phillies ALT RL -2.5 @ +150  [4U]
 Phillies *TT OVER 4.5* @ -110  [4U]
Phillies/Reds *OVER 4* (1st 5) @ -110  [4U]
Phillies/Reds *OVER 8* (Game) @ +105  [12U]

 

||an_blowhorn.gif' border=0>  *UPDATED WAGERS*

Phillies RL @ -115  [4U]
Phillies ALT RL -2.5 @ +150  [4U]
Phillies *TT OVER 4.5* @ -110  [4U]
Phillies/Reds *OVER 4* (1st 5) @ -110  [4U]
Phillies/Reds *OVER 8* (Game) @ +105  [12U]

Thanx buddy.   

Quote Originally Posted by LuckyGuy:

I'm on Giants! GL GiLmofo

*BOL* LuckyMoFo on your other plays.   

Alright, Alright.  New Thread'er  =  Bodio! 

Thanx buddy.  Hope your card is a very successful one... and most importantly for the both of us ---
hope DA BEARS have a very successful season! 

ADDS:

 Blue Jays ML @ -114  [4U]
 Blue Jays RL @ +135  [4U]